Quote:
Originally Posted by paradroid12
the big and now somehow semi-controversial post by sneaky pete has 2 major problems:
1. It suggests that there is 1 and only 1 correct way to play this particular hand, and it implies that we can actually know the max EV play based on 40 minutes of observation of an unknown opponent.
Certainly not suggesting what is max EV in this situation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
Call the flop. Raising serves no purpose.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
It seems intuitive to raise since we have a monster draw, but raising is a mistake here.
I was merely pointing out that Willyoman's assertions are not absolute and asked for further evidences as to why he thinks they are.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paradroid12
the reality is that we should be varying and even randomizing our play some, so the question isn't whether we should be 100% raising or 100% calling, but more about how often and for what reasons we should be doing either.
That's for you to determine based on your own observation and game condition.
My objective is to isolate different ideas within a post and to further understand them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paradroid12
to the extent that villain is viewed as liking to call, we can already start down the road of reconsidering our fold equity on the flop for example.
FWIW, V is labeled as not like to fold pre flop, meaning he likes to see a lot of hands. That simply means that his pre-flop limping and calling range is very wide, and therefore weak. It is not enough to deduce that V doesn't like to fold with any part of flop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paradroid12
2. it focuses entirely on the impact of a raise on flop action and fails to consider future streets.
Actually, I just never got that far.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paradroid12
for example, Sneaky Pete might consider that a raise likely folds out A9 on the flop is an argument for raising; however that fails to consider the very high likelihood that A9 will fold on the turn or river whether or not JTs improves.
I couldn't make such assumption anymore than you could. There are too many variables for me to consider whether A9 has high likelihood of folding if Hero simply calls the flop.
I do know that if we call the flop on a wet board like this one, most V would consider a cap to our range.
Most of V's range that might fold to a flop raise will now be considered bluff catchers and our fold equity reduces even more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paradroid12
or what about situations where we flat flop and shove turn ... might that even be a more profitable alternative, especially if we think villain is donking light or likely to be calling too narrow of his turn betting range?
What kind of turn card would such play make sense? Like I said above, could V actually think we would call flop with a strong hand such as TPTK?
Quote:
Originally Posted by paradroid12
while I agree w Sneaky Pete's post that blindly asserting that villain is 100% donk/calling here is wrong, I also think the post fails to ask the questions that are actually pertinent to the spot.
When we get there, I'll ask.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paradroid12
in my view what matters more than our flop FE or equity v. range is how villain will play the turn. in general I favor raising flop, but I think there's a good argument for just calling as well, which suggests that the answer is to do both with some regularity.
What is important is painting a picture of what we are holding.
We raised pre - strong hand.
We raise wet flop - strong hand.
We call wet flop - bluff catcher and draws???