1/2 NLHE @ Venetian, 100-300max.

Hero has been playing for about an hour. I'm not entirely confident I'd call my image TAG so much as SLAG (slightly loose/aggro). My first hand I ended up cold 3b'ing a regular who I read for iso'ing UTG limper and scooping up pot preflop. I've also opened quite a few pots, raised limpers in position and been 3b twice now, both times I had to fold cause I was holding something like KQ which was playing AWFUL OOP v. their 3b range. So I'd say I've been opening/raising enough that I'm not exactly looked at as "tight" anymore.

The villain in this hand is one of the most noticeable marks on the table, and is a HUGE station. The only time he deviates from his passive (calling) play seems to be when it's checked to him OTB and then he often bombs like $20 into a pot of like $6 (only overbets when pot is wicked small). I won't go so far as to call him positionally aware, but he'll def. try to pick up an orphaned pot if he is in position.

Hero is playing ~$200, Vil covers.

Hero AQ UTG raises $10, folds to button, button (Vil) calls, sb fold, bb fold.

HU, Pot $23
Flop: Q32
Hero bets $12, Vil calls.

HU, Pot $47
Turn: 3
Hero bets $30, (*Vil looks back at cards) Vil calls.

HU, Pot $107
River: A
Hero bets $70

I'm pretty used to betting here for value, but I kept thinking about it more and more and am not so sure it's as good a spot for thin value as I think.

The river completes OESD, turn brings in FD. I was betting to get value out of QX hands, but the river may scare those holdings - on the other hand, would a QX not look at the river as counterfeiting their kicker and ergo might encourage a call? I'm also owning AsXo hands, but what AsXo combos am I beating that peeled the flop (As2o)? I mean I've seen people peel with 2 overs, but it's a Qhi flop, he's suppose to have 2 overs?

Okay, so then if I think he's calling me with more hands that beat me than I beat, I should check/call? We're not really check/folding top 2 here, are we? I'm not. I don't like the check/call line cause the busted flush draws should all have some showdown value and often will just check back, same holds true for all QX hands.

Which I guess leaves me with my original thought when I bet that river. I'm bet/folding the river. I do not expect him to raise with anything less than a boat (sometimes the nut flush) because 1/2 players often fail to get value on these board textures w/o the mortal nuts. So if I'm not folding, and he's unlikely to raise me, I might as well bet because these people surprise me all the time with the trash they call down with and I'm rarely punished for betting in this spot when I am beat.

Thoughts on river play?

The ace is not a good card for you. I would bet as a bluff not thin value. His range is very uncertain.

I just threw up in my mouth a little...

What I mean is, its going to take a big bet to get the right folds, small flushes, nut flush draw that paired otr and maybe Ksx.

What are you getting value from because I'm confused?

I'm betting this river as bluff and never thin value.

Very interesting spot here for sure, here is my 2 sense. I don't think we can check fold here, that is wayyyyyy to passive of a line with top 2. Check calling sucks bc honestly what is a vill like this betting that we beat pretty much complete air that stuck around to the river and random Ax hands both are a sliver of his total range here. Bombing the river for 3/4 pot isn't a great sizing here bc it's shuts out vills range that we can extract value from (all his Qs are going to sigh fold knowing that you were just bluffing AK this whole time and got lucky) anything that calls a big river bet is 99% of the time a better hand than ours.

But obv there is a decent amount of vills range that we can get some value from that we don't want to miss out on. So IMO the best line would be to bet fold an amount similar to the turn bet 30-45 can get a crying call from a Q and random As. Also allows us to minimize losses when we are beat here.

This is a pretty transparent play and is probably only going to work against a brain dead fish. If you pull this line against a thinking player I would imagine a lot of raises on the river since none of your very strong hands bet so small otr, and therefore they can see your not committed and this looks like a bet fold.

I know that it is more about the river now, but I raise more on the flop here TPTK, draws, huge station behind - 18-20.

I don't like the ace, but I bet/fold this for value as you did, maybe in this situation a little less, something like 55-60, because I guess this is not the type of player who would evaluate the halfpot bet as a weakness and raised with worse. I think it is all right to get calls from A2/A4/A5/AsXx, KsQx will find a call a lot and if he is a real huge station, he might try to look you up with PPs because these guys are sometimes like "You would bet this board only with the flush and you don't have a flush so I call".

If he calls and beats you, fine, you still wouldn't fold to his normal sized bet there so you might have lose only 55-70 instead of let's say 80-100.

Flop I bet $15-17 because of the spades.

Turn looks fine, would fold if he raised us.

River, I would b/f something like $45. He's never going to call with a Queen for $70 and c/f'ing and c/c'ing both suck. The only Ax hand I could see him having is something like As4x. b/f is definitely my play here, but I would just bet a bit less to save money when he has you beat and also invite a call from Qx.

bro this is like by far the most important piece of information in your entire post. nh wp. I probably bet less though on river.


If he is calling you with more hands that beat you than you beat (which I don't think is true vs. described villain), then you should obviously check, this is like extremely basic math.

As for check/call vs. check/fold, you can just use the exact same basic math ("am I good here at least ~1/3 times when he bets near pot on the river") to decide whether to call or not. Using your absolute hand strength (top 2 on a paired board with a flush possible) is not a good reason to call especially when it would be a 35bb bet.

C/C is definitely the worst option. If he bets we beat almost nothing. He's going to check back all Qx hands and him having an Ace is possible but not great.

I think it would be a crime to not go for thin value here vs this type of player who is a "huge station" combined with your image. (Not that fish notice that) I like one of Barts quotes from a podcast the other day.. He said "everything is a bet fold".

I prob bet $55'ish. You'll get worse to call and if you are raised, you find out your ****ed for less. When he checks his cards, I don't put him on a flush.

On a side note--Im craving a blueberry muffin.

against desribed villain this isnt even a thin vbet, it is just a regular vbet.

a thin vbet here would be playing it the exact same with tt or jj, or q9 or something

against a station you played it right, just fold to a raise on the river

^FWIW, I would just c/f those 3 hands on the river. I wouldn't be betting them on the turn either though. But I agree, this is a standard value bet with AQ.

Easy bet/fold here.

+1

This is why I keep my mouth shut, someone else will say what I'm thinking way better than I would.

If villain is a huge station, why are you betting so small on the flop? Pots grow geometrically, so the larger you size your flop bet, the more you'll be able to extract on later streets. Pot it (bet $25) and take him to value-town! Your bet-sizing here is actually a huge leak at LLSNL and will really hurt your win rate.

Turn bet is still too small as well. Yes, the flush got there but given villain's description you're still way ahead of his range (and you want to protect vs. spades).

As played, river isn't really thin at all, b/f slightly smaller though ($50-$60). Villain will sigh and call with tons of hands you beat.

Against competent hand readers does (i mostly play 2/4, 5/5) do any other Lags or sLags pot or overbet this river for value? I think it's an awesome board for it. (obviously it's very dependant on how many Qx combos or JJ,TT,99,88 Villain has in his preflop flatting range ). given competents are going to see us barreling these boards a tonne vs weak tight fish it's probably an awesome spot to value town.

For this Hero vs this Villain the river value bet isnt thin at all. For those saying that it's a bluff etc you aren't necessarily wrong. For you it might well be a bluff (if you're a nit or a TAG as a lot of people on here seem to be, and especially if you don't barrell often, you might not be getting called by worse here ever)

I think its perfect.

Not too big to force out Qx, not too small to earn nicely vs any AXss.

it gets the salute for me.