1/3 NLHE, 6 handed. Early in the session, only a few orbits in.

V - Good TAG kid. Haven't played with him much, about 15 hours now. He's a solid TAG player that buys in a bit shallow and 3-bets/gii pre until he goes deeper. I've seen him make some mistakes post-flop in calling too wide or betting where it didn't make sense. 200$ BTN.

HH - V opens 30 over UTG limp and 1 caller, Hero 3-bets TT from BTN, only V calls, HU. Runout all low like 8-5-4-8-9r and Hero gets into awkward spot by river and owns himself when V shows JJ.

H - Not sure of image to V. I've been overly aggressive the last few sessions trying to force the issue and borderline punted a few times. 350$ UTG+1.

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UTG folds, H opens K Q UTG+1 to 10, only V calls on BTN, HU OOP.

Flop 20 - J 5 4

H cbets 15, V calls

Turn 50 - 7

H barrels 50, V calls

River 150 - 8

Hero? (V has about 125 back).

It’s not gonna work every time, but I think this is a pretty good barrel spot. We unblock both flush draws and him checking back Ace high would be terrible. He’s probably not folding JX very often, but I wouldn’t put it past a tag given that we are repping an over pair. On rare occasion we run into 66.

I give up. I can't imagine he's calling flop/turn and folding this river. It's so unlikely you have a 6.

In example hand this huge pf sizing is so often TT-KK, mostly jacks or queens. So just exploit fold pre. Sure he could have AK but you’ll still have a hard time winning.

I give up turn here, we’re not getting a lot of folds. Flop seems close. Not sure what we’re repping with river jam but he might fold draws that have an ace or a pair.

Example hand is a little strange to me. How deep was he that he could open so big over two limpers, get 3b, and then call? I would have expected him to 4b-shove. I guess SPR was low enough that position wasn't that important? I also think OmahaDonk's point about just folding TT here to his repped strong range is a good one.

On the hand, seems like a place for a smaller cbet, larger turn bet, if we're an overpair concerned about either FD coming in. Which still sets up the river shove if that's congruous with your dynamic to that point.

Though, which sets do we really have here besides JJ? 88-77? Would AA-QQ be more inclined to bluff-catch on the river OOP vs shove?

I hate the flop c-bet; villain as described ought to have a fairly snug, if capped, range, and if we have range advantage at all it is going to be small. I would much rather be checking my entire range and having a robust check-raising range.

This and KQ have insanely good blockers so if you check this river you're literally never bluffing.

That said if BTN has a fairly tight range and if you don't think Jx folds much shoving is a losing play.

Versus a smaller sizing of say $35 the defense will get very tough since even if he calls every board pair, without bluff jamming a lot of his missed flush draws he'll be under defending.

If you think they're a more straightforward player who will just snap fold KQ and similar hands it's a good play but maybe live players get spewy vs block bets.

Just start by checking flop, see what he does.

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Given preflop dynamics, I think V can sometimes be wider than usual from the BTN. So I don't mind the cbet, but perhaps would go 10 instead of 15. We have all kinds of mid pairs that c-bet here.

Turn is the decision point. What are our barrels here? Ah2h, Ah3h, Ac2c, Ac3c, 66 maybe 88, sometimes 99. I think we're checking some of our AK for showdown value. Our AA-KK, JJ and 77 are making value bets.

Conversely, V's turn calls almost always include hands that have either turned more equity or flopped plenty too. He has few floats here. This is pretty near a commitment spot with 150 in the pot and 125 behind.

So what's he folding on this river getting over 2-1 to call our jam?

This spot sucks and it got set up by H's polar line. If we had gone value/value/polar, or even value/x/polar, V would be in a tough spot even with a runout that favored his range.

I suppose we just have to sigh/jam and hope that V can level himself into a fold given the prior HH.

Check flop. As played, check turn. As played, check river.

I don't mind blasting the river as played, but I really hate how Hero got to this spot.

Betting 75% flop and full pot turn is just way more agressive a line than Hero needs to take. Even if we mix between check and betting flop, turn card is terrible for us and we are choosing a very polar line on an unfavorable texture to do so.

Pre standard

Flop
I think you both have about the same amount of Jx and sets but we don't block any flush/straight draws. I'm probably checking vast majority of my range here. If I do bet I like the sizing. With this hand I would check/fold.

Turn
I don't know if our value hands love this turn card. It's better for his range than yours, but we unblock both flush draws. I think it's a check/call for me with a value hand. If I have a value hand and get raised or called I'm not exactly loving life. I think almost all of my value hands like 2/3- 3/4 sizing rather than pot. I would check/fold.

River
I'm almost positive this is a torch if we shove here, but at the same time I'm having trouble thinking of other good hands to bluff shove with. Honestly we probably don't need to be balanced here at all so it doesn't matter. The runout was better for him as the preflop caller unfortunately. Would you be shipping all AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AJ, 55, 44? Our best value are A6hh, A6cc, T9cc, T9hh, which isn't a lot of hands. All that said, I think it's time to shut it down....and check/fold lol

early streets seem not very good to me. am tempted to exploitatively never bluff this runout because i think people will think you can only vb a straight esp if ur only size is all in but idk. probably bet is preferred line at this point.

What would be the worst hand we should bet bet jam for value?

sim is difficult to explain unless u look at it. it isn't really going to jam this river w any part of betting range but to answer your question ive looked at a few somewhat comparable sims spr wise and it seems like around 55 is where we dont seem to lose signif amount of ev jamming vs blocking / betting 50 or 60%. so sets i guess. the smaller size lets us bet overpairs too. if you jam hes indifferent / can just fold Jx and even 44 a huge amount of the time. the takeaway from this is he has a good enough hand often enough otr that jamming makes it very easy for him to play (there are people who this may not apply to).

I guess we bet half pot here. I don't expect a jack to fold even if we jam. I am a little worried that with both FD's missing as well as the high cards we can have like AK and AQ, we might just get called by 9h8h, Ac5c, and Ac4c then we are just spewing.

Don't do it if V is a station.

Also it would be great if we could rule AJo of his range.

What would be the worst hand we would bet, bet, jam for value? Not really sure. This is not a spot where we would be jamming much if ever in theory. It's a depolarized spot. Half or more of the hands that call a jam may well beat QQ, and at that point, maybe you just jam because you've decided you're never folding, but don't want a jack to check back.

Result:

V is terrible

It's a tough spot because you don't know what his range looks like here. To be fair I expect him to have AJo, KJo, QJo in his range, although he may raise AJ postflop at some point.

Before seeing the result, a bluff on the river seemed like it would be really close between slightly profitable and slightly losing. I am still not sure. I wouldn't beat yourself up too much though. It wasn't clear if bluffing is going to be winning or losing, so even if giving up is 0 EV, it was reasonably likely to be the highest EV play. On the other hand, I do think turn barrels for large sizing get the job done a lot. Much better to have hearts or clubs though on the turn, or at least one of those hands to block his continue range. Even here it looks like he called hoping to bluff rivers unimproved. He did have the nut club blocker if that were to come in. He might give up without a club/heart.