1:220 * 1:7 * something about the number of players in the pot * how does a set of AAA survive the wheel card at lol 20/40?

Fuzzy memories . I got quads on back to back hands in my first full year of poker. My friend's first hand of poker ever, MGM 2-4 LHE, was quad tens.

You're a luck box, period!

The point is that's fine. You don't need to balance your ranges at 1/2. It's just annoying because you have to sit there and not do anything.

And that 20/40 game is such a good game SABR. Pretty certain its more profitable to play that game most of the time.

LOL...ok mr. obvious.

ya, i think quitting when youre image sucks is where a lot of your profit comes from.
sounds kinda weird, but think about it.
your edge has been reduced because villians will be encouraged to play better vs. you than they normally would, and since your edge even vs. a drooler isnt nearly as big as you might imagine, you might be breakeven, or a dog. maybe a big dog. you may be normally +Y amount in EV, but be -2Y with a losing image, and you may still be playing just fine.
all you have to do is come back tomorrow, and no one will remember. back to +EV; that easy. you have a fresh image.
thats why i went nuts in mpethys thread about image, because i wanted to underline what image is about at live low stakes, which is what a drooler sees you as; not what you would see yourself as if you were them.
you arent them.
they see someone who hasnt won a pot all day; they dont care if you are biggest winner in the casino.
they figure that you are drawing dead in every hand, and they will call you down with almost nothing. so you better have it, and hope it holds up. if you have the nuts, they still dont care, because since you are running bad, they will just get there. thats how they think. sounds ******ed, and it is.
they dont see 'aggressive/ passive' or 'loose/tight.', or 'professional'.
they could care less, it's 'winning' or 'losing' right now, period. to a drooler.
thats the way they think. they are superstitious idiots.
giving them too much credit just leads to the old auto-level.

if you are playing live low stakes, and there are no droolers in your game, why are you even playing?
especially when (good) HS games are full of droolers, it just makes no sense.
instead of 'move up to where they respect your raises', it becomes 'move up to where they drool on themselves.'

Had a good pull at 1/3 tonight -$650 in a little over 4 hours. If I play one hand a little different, I could have easily topped $900. Pretty sure my play was correct - I just happened to runn into the low end of my opponent's range in that spot.

Game was dying a little and my back was killing me, so I quit a little earlier than I intended. My favorite fish was sitting on 150 BBs, but I just wasn't feeling it.

I did see some classic fish plays that made me lol.

View: Bad Santa is highly underrated as a movie. Possibly in my top 20 all time.
Discuss.

Harrys busto hand getting it in in that PLO game on LATB with nothing but a double gutter w/ a flush draw on board while totally overcoated was pretty good.

all he had to do was read that thread, and he would have known that abe is a nit, and only has top set there. (and a redraw). (actually, any sane player has a set, or a monster draw, either of which has your draw crushed when the $ goes in.).
he did seem pretty set on lighting the remainder of his stack on fire after getting pwned earlier.

he called in to the show after he busted, and said he was gonna buy in 300k next time. lol.


BigSkip: 'Street Trash' very probably in my top 20;
don't bother discussing.

Yep and here is why.

Reason being that because the majority of players have LOLjobs, the games dont start really kicking off on Fridays until around 8pm or so. At 8pm or so, the majority of the players will be even or close to it, and as a result will be generally more patient at the start of their sessions compared to later on, where a combination of tilt, chasing losses, and the live ones getting some money sometimes will lead to looser games.

Whereas on Saturdays, with everyone having the day off for the most part, the games are running continously, and people are picking their "start time" at different points of the day, the game will always have people who have been in the game for a while, people who are stuck, and people tilting from beats all the time.

For the same reason, generally a "new" table is a lot quieter and passive then a "going" table, even if stack sizes and total $$$ on table is similar.

---------------

Anyway, first session today/tonight in a few weeks, should be a lot of fun, hopefully the casino has finally bothered to get the Aussie Rules channel put into the poker room.

If I were equally skilled at both limit and no-limit this would definitely be true. I consider myself an expert no-limit player and a beginning limit player though. I have very little limit experience so I'm basically playing on general poker knowledge. Like I know that limit is more about isolating, knocking other players out when possible, raising the worst hand sometimes in order to get a free card, getting max number of bets in as the favorite, etc...

My basic poker sense probably makes me very +EV in soft limit line-ups, where I see players call raises OOP with random trash, but I still feel way more comfortable in no-limit, even in a tougher line-up. I should definitely play more limit and get better at it though, it will improve my bottom line for sure.

I once has the AA back to back, flop top set and then next hand flop quads. Guess what I was playing.... Limit. Must be a limit thing... no way I could run that good in NL

Card dead last night -$75 and didn't win the mega millions

LIFT TILT LSKFJIJNS

I don't think this is necessarily true. The only reason they are playing "better" against us is if we continue to robotically say "I raised now I have to cbet". If they are calling us down even wider than usual because "that guy never has anything" we can just vbet wider and bluff less. IMO that gets us toa more profitable place if we make the right adjustment.

ya, but you havent notice how droolers adjust their play vs. you based on how youre running?, which makes no sense. i think this observation may get overlooked by some good players because they dont think this way. this isnt a strategic adjustment that they are making. its an adjustment based solely on superstition, and made w/ a profound misunderstanding of probability, and randomness. (very hard for a lot of ppl to accept, apparantly)
every hand is a seperate trial, and is totally random on its own, but to a drooler you are cursed or something if you cant win a pot, and they call you w/ the 8T PF to put you out of your misery, because you only have AK. In reality, just because you havent won a hand in 4 hours doesnt mean that you won't start winning every hand in the next four hours, starting this hand, but to a drooler it's a lock that you wont win one for the next 4 hours; they prolly think you will never win a hand ever.
and the inverse. when youre on a heater, they are terrified. you are suddenly a bear in the road to them.
just recently, i played a sesh where i was pretty card dead; prolly lost a few medium pots; could tell i had a bad image. the droolers were treating me like an empty chair, and then i win a monster pot, and quadruple up w/ a set vs. 2 draws, and bottom set, and the very next hand,
i suddenly had a God image. I could tell; they very abruptly become scared of you. (its totally illogical, nothing changed about you, or how lucky you are in the longrun because of one pot, but this is how they think. If youre hand hadnt held up, you become less than an empty chair, though). and when theyre scared of you they will find way more ways to make mistakes vs. you.
it's not like they become good players when youre running bad, but when youre running good, they definately play even worse than usual, make even more extreme mistakes; fall into the trap of thinking that they are getting pushed around, that they need to play back, that you are using a big stack to bludgeon them, when you merely have the nuts; that poker is a pissing contest, which its not. we know that its about making the best possible decision over and over. that luck doesnt overlap from one hand to the next. history, and information gained, or divulged effects future hands, but not how lucky anyone is right now. not to a drooler, though.
so, if this is the case about the kind of image thats gonna effect a drooler the most, and thats 'winning now, or losing now, which is what bart h talks about when he talks about image, or maybe what abe was referring to when he talked about 'psychological ascendancy' (which he lifted from the 'quit your job and sleep til noon' book), then doesnt it make sense to avoid putting in hours when you have a bad image, or table change,
because its not nearly as profitable as when you have a neutral, or winning image, which is when you should put the peddle to the metel. your edge is reduced, and if you dont have to play when your edge is reduced, why play?? see, my goal is to play as few hours as possible, so i want to max out my win rate as much as humanly possible, so i think about these things. I'm not inventing any of this; pretty sure mike caro, and others have talked at length about it.
there are exceptions to what i'm trying to get across, and i am prolly exaggeratting as usual. you can gain psychological ascendancy vs. a single villian, if you own him/her over and over, and really beat up on them over time; but, this phenomonon of droolers being swayed by superstition might overcome even that. if youre having a rotten session, they may not be as cautious as usual about getting involved in a pot with you, even if you have perma-owned them.
see, they believe that its luck. otherwise, they would be working on their game, because then they would know that it's skill. you don't gain skill by doing nothing, which is obv what they are doing to improve their game.

So… just as I said, the Mega Millions was a split pot. I expected either a two- or three-way chop and it ended up three.

Anybody who bought a bunch of tickets for last night but doesn't also buy a bunch of tickets whenever the pot is $180-200M has a leak.

I just disagree Stampler. If we continue playing the same, then sure, their adjustments are bad for us. But since we aren't going to do that and we are just going to play a bit tighter, cbet less often and pound them with value bets which they call super wide I don't see where this is a bad thing.

At LLSNL I would rather not have my opponents "fear" me, because I WANT them to make all those ******ed calldowns that they make when I'm running bad. Because running good or bad obviously isn't a real thing.

People here are such nits (and I don't play lotto either). How can you not understand that people are getting enjoyment out of this?

It can be -EV monetarily but +EV in terms of utility. And why do we have money if its not to use it to increase utility? And it makes sense that you would get more enjoyment out of playing when the pot is stupid large than when its relatively smaller.

You either don't play a lot of live or once again you are arguing for the sake of arguing.

What stampler said is pretty much a consensus for most of the top llsnl players.

Jack, are you a troll? You smell like one.

Whoa whoa whoa. As I have stated earlier in this thread (post 10967), I enjoy playing regularly.

My post today is just collecting $0 credit for being right that the Friday drawing this week was not a better game than the $200M jackpots that come up several times each year.

i never said dont make exactly the adjustment you are talking about when you have a bad image/ losing image. the adjustment is easy, and obvious.
the trick is knowing how they are viewing you, and the adjustments they are going to be making; which you are right about. they continue to play loose vs. you, and dont care that youre tightening way up.
i just dont think the average drooler is thinking in terms of 'aggressive/passive' image, or 'loose/tight' image so much as 'winning now', and 'losing now'. thats what they are going to change up their play vs. you based on, which is a joke, but thats another reason why its still profitable.
im not sure what you disagree about?
pls quote exactly what i said that you disagree with.
i may not have focused on the obv correct adjustment when running bad vs. droolers, but i didnt overlook it, and i certainly never argued against it, or suggested a different adjustment than you did.

youre going to have a bad/ losing image X amount of the time, thats poker. its not good or bad for us, or a value thing; it just happens. its just about recognizing it as its happening, and taking measures to maximize regardless of your status at the moment, even if it means quitting a soft game because your image sucks now, and the same droolers will be there tomorrow, and they will have forgotten about you running bad the day before, and you just gained EV by waiting a day to play the next hand. (and even more EV by resting, and eating right, exercising, de-tilting, ect...). if ive decided im gonna play X amount of hours this week, i can get those in later, when my image has a shot at being better, that's all. I don't need to get them in now. that's why i dont go off for multiple BIs, or eat like a bird, and s#!yt like an elephant, as the saying goes.
im not saying that its necessarily unprofitable to play droolers with a bad image, but that its obv less profitable than with a winning image. mix in a few good players, and it may even be breakeven,
or str8-up unprofitable w/ a bad image?

i feel like the sickest gambler.
invested $0 in the mega,
but wasnt drawing dead, cuz 2 ppl on facebook offered me a cut on a freeroll for liking their degen posts if they binked.
weeeeeee
im such a nit.
nits love free equity, with zero risk.

I have never heard someone say that you should quit when you have a losing image. I have heard many people say you should change the way you play when you have a losing image. If you can't figure out how to beat the guys that are adjusting to the fact that you are running bad by calling you down lighter I don't know what to tell you.

I maybe shouldn't have quoted you specficially. But to all the people yesterday talking about "Its -EV and -EV gambling means you're stupid".

But as to what you're saying, the larger jackpots probably don't have any larger expectation in $$ (because of that interesting article you posted about them getting chopped which I failed to think about) but they almost certainly have more expectation in utility where you get the larger rush, etc. of thinking about winning all that money.

Its funny in a way that knowing so much about odds and gambling (as you clearly do about lottos) can ruin what would otherwise be a +Utility situation by showing you how certain you are to lose regardless of the situation.