I have made two soul read hero calls with marginal holdings the past two weeks and both of them are likely -EV
300NL
Hand 1:
I have played with the guy for an hour or two. He plays in a lot of home games and like "knows moves" but isn't very good at them if that makes sense. Villain has like 250ish behind.
2 limpers, Hero raises K
J
to 15
Folds to villain who calls
Flop is 652
Villain checks
Hero bets 20
Villain Calls
Turn is a brick (I would have fired an over card but I just didn't feel like barreling here was going to be very effective and if I do I feel like I have to shove the river)
Check check
River is an offsuit J
Villain checks
Hero bets 45
Villain kind of mutters "I thought you had nothing the entire way..."
then after tanking for like a minute he clicks it back to 90 (45 to call)
I'm like wtf and tank and call since how does he not bet the river if he has a strong made hand on the flop and with what he said I'm like "**** it I'll pay you off" and he raps the table and shows the whiffed NFD
(ATs)
Soul read #2
500NL - Hero has ATos in the BB
Table is weak, 4 limpers with one guy (villain) who posts in the HJ after winning a bit of cash at 300NL
I check the BB (6 ways to the flop)
Flop is T
6
x
Check, I bet 25 and it folds to villian who calls, the rest fold
Turn is the 2
(pot is like 80)
I bet 45, villain calls
River is the 8
I have no idea what villain has but I'm like b/f I have TPTK
I bet 75 (pot is like 170)
Villain immediately clicks it back to 150
I'm like wtf, his line makes no sense unless he backed into two pair but most people aren't calling 2 streets with t8os or he has 6xhh and turned a FD and I figured all the big made hands are raising the turn so I called and he tables k6os. I don't recall the flop exactly but there was no straight on the board.
Yeah I know, I'm a station