Quote:
Originally Posted by acescracked84
1. Betting the flop does not guarantee us a free card on the turn when we're out of position. 2. Why would he check the turn behind with an over pair?
Of course I doesn't
guarantee us a free card on the turn. You are playing against a "nit" in this case who just called our PF bet and then just called our bet on the flop. If he has a large overpair (JJ+), it is likely that he would raise us on either PF or on the flop, which puts him in the 88-TT, A7, ish range. If he is on a spade draw, then he wants a free card as well and is unlikely to semi-bluff on the turn when he fairly sure that he is behind.
Quote:
Originally Posted by acescracked84
3. Checking the turn and betting the river looks pretty fishy from us and I think he would (and should) call with an over pair on the river in that case. 4. While a second barrel may not get him to fold, then what option do we have? If we check/call it is harder for us to make anything on the river when the obvious draw comes in and we gave up iniatative. A check/raise kind of commits us. But a bet sets our price and we rarely get blown off our hand.
Yes, if we don't see a broadway or spade card on the river, then we just c/f the hand and lose a small pot. Betting on a small non-spade river card would not be advisable. If we hit (or pop a broadway and it appears that we hit), then we win a small pot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by acescracked84
5. We're not committed with a bet on the turn. We can bet ~$65 on the turn and check/fold any non spade, ten or ace on the river.
How much FE do you really think we have on the turn? The V is on a spade draw, mid pair, A7, etc. Most of these have showdown value. If he called PF and on the flop, he is likely going to call this turn as well. On the river, we have a 35% chance to hit our hand, otherwise we just check and give up?
Edit: or exactly what Monkey just posted.