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Nuts river vs capped range Nuts river vs capped range

01-08-2019 , 04:44 PM
1/2 Holdem, 9max. 700$ eff.

HJ Open 10, CO calls, Hero calls Ac7c from bb.
HJ 50's rec player, pretty bad, quite loose-agro, when loosing close to maniak, when winning on a tighter side. Wining this session.

Flop Ad6c2c. HJ bet 15, CO fold, I raise to 70, HJ quickly calls. On this flop I decide to play my hand aggressively, the guy is loose preflop an he has all offsuit aces, and I believe most of the time I'll get him to fold all better aces on the river, and build a big pot if he has a flush draw.

Turn is Ah. Check-check. That's an interesting runout, now he'll ever fold a better ace, so I slow down. Villain check back instantly, but his basic timing is on a faster side overall.

River is 7h, pot 170, 620 behind. After instant check back on the turn, I believe HJ range is capped to weak-medium aces, busted flush draws, some random 2paired hands(6x, pocket).
I believe he will call all Ax if I make a light overbet, something like ~ 225.
If I bet small, like 1/5 of the pot, I don't think he'll raise medium ace often, but might raise busted flush draw.
And betting anywhere in between is clearly less ev then light overbet.
If I check he'll likely to bet around 100 with Ax+flush draws half of the time, and call my raise with trips most of the time.

What do you think is optimal river play?
Nuts river vs capped range Quote
01-08-2019 , 06:33 PM
A LAG checking back an A on the turn ? no way

I think you may want to go for the x/r on the river after checking the turn ; it will look like you have given up

hard to get value from his range otr I think with him having busted draws, air, and some pp's

I'm fine with a value bet OTR as well AP but I think I like the check better
Nuts river vs capped range Quote
01-08-2019 , 07:11 PM
I think the turn check sets up a river PSB very nicely. Can absolutely get called light and maybe ever induce if V puts you on a big pair like KK or a busted flush draw (not nit draw).
Nuts river vs capped range Quote
01-09-2019 , 03:34 AM
The instant checkback on the turn makes me think he probably had something it was clear to check back, so perhaps something like 65s. If he had a busted draw or an ace he would have had to think about that turn card. So I'd go for the overbet, probably 250, and try to induce a hero call from some bad hand. x/r is going to be better if you think he can have a lot of aces though.
Nuts river vs capped range Quote
01-09-2019 , 11:35 AM
Fold pre, sometimes I 3b. A7s is not a good hand deep oop.

x/c flop. You said it yourself on the turn he will never fold a better ace and you're very far ahead of his bluffs. Based on description he doesn't sound like he's going to fold easily. I disagree he will fold all better aces by the river, you aren't doing a good job representing AK-AJ with your flat call pre and if the flush draw bricks he can easily put you on air on a bunch of runouts.

Turn is a pretty interesting spot, it makes it very hard for him to have Ax. So now I'm weighting his flush draws a lot more than before. I think check is fine here.

River I am going for the x/r.
Nuts river vs capped range Quote
01-09-2019 , 01:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdelore
Fold pre, sometimes I 3b. A7s is not a good hand deep oop.

x/c flop. You said it yourself on the turn he will never fold a better ace and you're very far ahead of his bluffs. Based on description he doesn't sound like he's going to fold easily. I disagree he will fold all better aces by the river, you aren't doing a good job representing AK-AJ with your flat call pre and if the flush draw bricks he can easily put you on air on a bunch of runouts.

Turn is a pretty interesting spot, it makes it very hard for him to have Ax. So now I'm weighting his flush draws a lot more than before. I think check is fine here.

River I am going for the x/r.
Very good hand to flat from BB.
I've said that he will not fold an ace after another A came on the turn, please pay attention. Representing set/2pairs not AK there. We have 12 outs vs better ace, and building a big pot vs dominated draw. I think that most of the time he will fold AQ and below on the most of the runouts vs river shove. Playing this hand passively might be a better option vs agro-opponent, who will barrel off often.
Nuts river vs capped range Quote
01-09-2019 , 05:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Randoom
Very good hand to flat from BB.
You aren't ahead of the raising range and you're deep out of position with no initiative. Perfect.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randoom
I've said that he will not fold an ace after another A came on the turn, please pay attention.
He will also not fold a better ace to a flop x/r. That was the point I was making.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randoom
Representing set/2pairs not AK there. We have 12 outs vs better ace, and building a big pot vs dominated draw. I think that most of the time he will fold AQ and below on the most of the runouts vs river shove. Playing this hand passively might be a better option vs agro-opponent, who will barrel off often.
The problem is you are repping a very narrow range with sets/2p, and if he has an ace himself he removes many two pair combos. For that reason I don't think he will fold an ace on later streets. You could be right that he hero folds one pair by the river but if all the draws miss it isn't helping your case.

Also you did mention in the OP he is bad agro so it may not be a bad idea to play the hand passively since if he has air you have the hand locked down.
Nuts river vs capped range Quote
01-09-2019 , 06:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdelore
Fold pre, sometimes I 3b. A7s is not a good hand deep oop.
folding a suited ace 350bb deep closing the action? suited aces are great when deep, esp if i get to close the action and see a flop.
Nuts river vs capped range Quote
01-09-2019 , 08:30 PM
No chance folding pre. Threebet is an option.
Nuts river vs capped range Quote

      
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