Quote:
Originally Posted by davomalvolio
I think every street is fine.
Why in the world are you guys saying we check the Turn? There are SO MANY hands we can get value from with a half-pot bet: KQ, QJ, JJ-88 (that recognize the Ace is a good bluffing card for us, generally), A3, A5, flush draws. And it’s a slam-dunk call once he raises (V should bluff this card A LOT since we shouldn’t actually have many Aces (we aren’t always going to bet out AK/AJ/AT hands on the flop). And even if it’s a value raise, we have outs against A2/A4.
River is a slam-dunk jam, even if we are doing so with the best hand some portion of the time.
I'd check turn after c-betting flop and getting called, but my preference would have been to check flop, and make a delayed c-bet on the turn if V checks back.
My reasoning is that we were already getting a little out of line raising ATo from MP pre, and then c-betting the Q-high flop with just one over and a couple back-door draws.
If V calls flop and we barrel turn, we're folding out the weakest parts of his range, ensuring that he's only continuing with a stronger range. We're in danger of running out of value by the river. We should slow down and check, to give V a chance to bluff, or bet a worse hand for value.
Like, we have the Ac, so we're blocking V's nut flush draws. His flop calling range is going to be heavily weighted towards QX. How many QX combos does he have here, that just flat call pre, and don't raise flop, that will flat call again on the turn, and that we actually beat?
Is he going to flat call with QJ or worse QX when the A hits the board? How many really good combo draws can he have here? Maybe just KQcc, KJcc, KTcc, QJcc, QTcc. He might have 53s when he calls from the BTN, that makes a wheel on the turn.
If we checked flop, V might bet with all his QX and flush draws, plus maybe some of his PP's that weren't 3B pre, like 55-TT. But if we c-bet flop, and barrel turn, he's folding out most of those hands.
Even if he thinks the A is a good card for us to bluff, it's hard for us to be bluffing here, when we raised pre, c-bet flpp, and barrel turn. What would our bluffs even be? But if we checked flop, then, hell yeah, we can bet that turn, and expect him to look us up a lot more, because we might be trying to rep the ace.
Jamming river after V raises us on the turn seems ambitious, against an unknown rec. I don't hate it. But I don't love it either. I'd like it better if we knew enough about V to know if he has a fold button when the FDFD comes in on the river, even if he made some kind of hand on the turn.