In EP, he's always limping 66/55. He's typically raising TT. The table is not loose/aggro/maniac, so he's typically not going to limp/reraise big hands preflop (although with the table being so tight, and his overall tight image, it's possible he felt a preflop raise with a big hand wouldn't get action). Playing 65 in EP probably isn't in his typical playbook. He never has T6/T5.

He could easily have some mediocre draws, but I think he'd mostly just call with them vs someone donking into the world with others left to act. He would have no problem raising a monster a draw / getting it all in.

So having said all that, it's really unlikey he shows up with TT, so not exactly a lot of combos I should be worried about here (4 possible sets really). Course, I just recently ran my KK into his AA, so maybe that is affecting my range of what is possible.

So I guess 66/55 are in his range of most likely hands along with AT/KT? Is the Ten a spade?

TT, 65 are unlikely I agree with you

I think he might raise a bit wider than what you're thinking but I wasn't there so who knows.

If you don't think he'd do this with AT/KT, then I think you have to fold

Hi, Hero is in BB with T8 ($170 stack). 6 limpers and SB see the
flop ($16) 529. SB Checks, Hero (check or bet(how much))?

Thanks.

Bets 15$

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Any merit in checking (check/raise?) from BB?

Here's a hand that's been bothering me for a week, simply cause had I been involved, I would have been lost:

Villain has just racked up and announced he was playing his last hand before moving from $1/$3 to $2/$5. He's on the button.

Earlier, he had made a huge check/raise on the flop with top set and wound up getting rivered.

In this hand, hero folds J7o from the SB in a limped pot, because we hate playing OOP and J7 is trash.

Flop is AxJh7h.

There's a $15 bet from either the BB or UTG, a call and a ship for $450+ which would have had us covered.

If you had made this preflop call and led out for $15 and got shipped on, would you call here?

Likely fold.

There's a lot of AhXh in his range and those are doing really well against us.
There is also AJ/A7 in his range as well as KQ/KT/89/T9hh type hands.
Sure, there is also some AK/AQ/AT type hands also. But I think it's close, and do we really want to take a close call for $450?

Someone with PS maybe run some numbers? I've a feeling we're behind.

This is def a fold, imo. If we give V just the NFD with a pair of aces we are still behind with 48.6% equity, which would be a super bare call with the dead money in the pot. Once we add in 77 (prob no JJ if no raise pre) and better two pairs (giving only suited combos of A7) we plunge to 28% equity. If he has A7o in his range it goes down to 23.7%.

Then we add in combo-draws, but it doesn't help us much. We go back up to 28.8% equity. Only by adding ALL AT+ combos as suggested by raise, are we ever ahead here (and that barely, 52.5% equity), but I really think we have to discount this part of his range hugely because 1) there was no raise pre, and 2) he probably doesn't fo this wild with a bare TP every time. If we just include the suited version of those hands to represent the discount (not because he is actually more likely to have suited combos), we become a dog again at 42.8% equity.

Cliffs: he has to have pretty much all TPMK combos in his range to make this a call. That seems super unlikely.

I would never call that with bottom two. I read (I forget where) about people doing this with the flush draw. Also, TPTK can spaz like this. But I just don't see this being a +EV call. More likely it is top two or a set, imho.

thanks ... yeah, i would have a really hard time folding. i mean we have blockers to two sets and a better two pair ... but do i want to risk $450 (150 BBs) that this guy is spazzing some hand with huge equity?

like i said, glad i was a SB nit and folded pre.

Thanks Garrick. Great analysis. ^^^ This is what we should be doing to beat the pokerz, imho, ranging with real math behind it.

I should have a fantastic image. I've only lost one hand in 2 hours, and I'm up $300-$400. I've been fairly active pre so far (almost all IP), but I've only shown down quality.

4 limps to me in the BB.
I raise to $16 with 99, get 3 callers including a player UTG and the SB ($16 usually gets 0-2 callers.) Stacks are all

Flop ($64) QJ7
SB checks, hero checks, UTG bets $20
Everyone folds including hero.

Seem ok? Feels like such a bad board to barrel on OOP against 3 people.

Yes - seems fine to me

Hero sits down 30 minutes ago, hasn't played a single hand yet... Cars dead like a mf.
100bb eff, 1/2$
4 limpers, Hero with KQo in SB raises to 17$, nerdy looking guy calls in LP after everyone folds.
Flop A74hh... Hero bets 26$
Comments?

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hate raising KQo out of the SB. just see the flop.

and lol ... 30 minutes isn't card dead. that's an orbit and a half.

Without reads I'd rather limp...

As played c-bet to $20.

7way limped pot, Hero is in BB with Q5ss.

Flop is Q43ss cuz god likes me. I bet $25 into ~$25 cuz I feel I has a good hand. Only Villain in EP calls.

Villain is 50ish middle eastern guy I've never played with. Earlier he was commenting on how horrible a maniac was playing (maniac was betting blind to the turn/river and I eventually stacked him twice), and Villain is saying how "this is not poker, this is horrible, this is bingo". He has played pretty ABC but he still seems fairly noobish / bad. He likes to bet $10 on flop and turn with weakish hands; he has folded fairly easy to aggression with these weak bets. He once was able to fold a straight on a paired / 3-to-a-flush river vs 2 players giving action.

Turn 6r. I now have TPnK with a flush draw and an OESD. Pot is $75 and Villain has $150 left.

What should be our plan at this point?

I ended up betting $25. Obviously this is a lol bet, but my reasoning is that it's possible my hand is best and I simply want to take down the pot now as cheaply as possible (it's possible Villain has something like 99). If my hand ain't best, I should still be getting awesome odds to chase all my draws, even if Villain raises me (and if he does raise me, my guess is that it will be a lol size giving me good odds).

Villain calls. Q on the river so now I have what is known as "trips". Pot is $125 and Villain has $125 left.

Now what?



GcluelessNLnoobG

Don't like turn. I just std bet this.

Definitely c/c river.

You get value from absolutely nothing by jamming GG

I check call the river.

I think he calls the river so much less than bets it with 88-JJ. Our hand looks much more like a missed straight or flush draw. Or some stupid combination of both. We should look scared of the Q pairing.

There is literally 0 better hands that are folding vs described villain, and there are some weaker ones that will bet if we check.

Just my two cents.

No bc people play very straightforward on monotone boards and thus you should bet bet bet or bet bet check and get called by sets/A/K

We check river on blank runouts alot bc it gives A a chance to bluff

But if we check the river, doesn't he normally just check back all the mediocre hands that could *perhaps* payoff a bet, and obviously just bet the hands that crush us? I always think in this spot that if we check then a bet usually just ends up going in on the river when we're behind.

I think I'm more concerned with whether I should be in this spot on the river to begin with (although at the same time I think flop is obvious and I don't think I *hate* turn?).

GcluelessNLnoobG

To be honest, you might want to start an actual thread. I think this warrants a bit of discussion. Esp the turn.

easy check/call river
i like your turn bet sizing given stacks

Probable chop on double paired board, raise anyway?
PS: this is a dumb question. It was literally the only borderline decision I had all session this weekend

1-2, Cleveland Horseshoe, I raise from EP with KQ, get way too many callers.

Flop $40.
QQ9 rainbow. I check, person on my left bets $20. He's unknown, seems straightforward to this point, not too fishy. I call, everyone else folds.

Turn $80, 9 of something
I check/call $30 with my boat. My thinking here is on a double paired board, I'm most likely either chopping, playing against a 9, or he has nothing. Most players fold the 9s/air to a raise, and I'm just paying more rake against the queens.

$140
River (brick, doesn't matter)
I check, Villain bets $50, I call. Same logic as above.

Is my logic faulty? Do I raise even if I think he folds all the nines, hoping Zeebo theorem takes over?