Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbosTrunk
1/3. Hero opens Ad5h in CO to $12 and BTN calls. BTN has shown a propensity to bluff on occasion. Eg triple barreled JT with oesd that missed.
Flop ($18): Ah-Kh-8s. Hero checks, V bets $15. Hero calls.
Turn ($48): 2h. Hero checks, V bets $40. Hero hesitates, putting V on possible flush, and calls with 5h blocking some flush combos.
River ($128): 2d. Hero checks V bets $60. Earlier hero jammed and V tried table talk during his tank, hero remained silent. Now V says, “I’ll answer questions, even though you didn’t.” Hero?
The Ah and Kh on the board make it far less likely that the villain has a flush draw. Just about the only flush combos they should have are QhJh, JhTh, and Th9h.
For the same reason, hero's holding the 5h doesn't really block flush combos. Do we really think that villain is flatting a CO open with 6h5h? Ah5h is blocked by the ace on the board every bit as much as by the 5h in our hand.
The small river bet doesn't say "please call me" to me, it says "thin value," after the board has paired and made nutted hands like QhJh into non-nuts and thick value hands like A9s into possible chops.
AK should be discounted because villain flatted pre. There is only one combo of A8s (Ac8c) they can have, and likewise only one A2s, also clubs, and we should likely discount this somewhat. Flatting a CO open with 22 is very special. If the villain did this, we should change seats to get position on them.
So there are four combos plus two discounted ones that beat us, something like six to ten chops, and whatever bluffs the villain has. Because of the bet size the villain shouldn't really be bluffing very much.
This is an unusual end-of-action spot, because of the likelihood of chopping. We are risking $60 to win a total pot of $248, but because of the chop it is more like $124, so we need to be "good" almost half the time.
I would say, with six combos of value hands, two of which are discounted, and something like six combos of chops, possibly more, we have a clear call.