Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveinkolb
I feel like I got myself in a bad spot here.
Effective stacks: a little less than $200.
Hero is UTG, villain UTG +1. Villain has been OK, but not great. Not a total fish, but made some mistakes.
Hero raises to $12 ($1/$2 NL) with AQo ... UTG calls.
Flop is Q 9 8 rainbow. I bet $20. He calls. Turn is an A. I bet $45. He shoves for $120 more.
I was actually planning to check the turn unimproved. But I improved.
Board: Ad Qc 8s 9h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.800% 69.76% 02.04% 1504 44.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 28.200% 26.16% 02.04% 564 44.00 { QQ-88, A4s+, KQs, QTs+, JTs, 98s }
Is that stove range too wide?
I think turn is a clear bet/fold...Not being results oriented but the A on the turn cannot possibly improve villain's range of hands, and lessens the likelihood that villain is semibluffing, especially since the board is rainbow....Your hand doesn't beat much, given the strength villain has shown on turn...This looks much more like a made straight, rather than a set...and a set much more than 2pair or TT, JJ, etc.
With pot odds of 275/120, villain needs to show up with an inferior hand roughly 1 out of 3 times for this call to be profitable...I just don't think that is the case