lol.

We're 77% against all Jx, not just aj.

Betting AJ and not 44 is upside down.

Just keep rereading DC's advice here weekly and check back in when it makes sense to you.

People who misplay 44 trigger me.

You mean keep re-reading this part? Thanks, but I'd rather not. I'd rather people keep re-reading my post, because I specifically mentioned these Vs will not call this flop with random garbage and we simply don't make locked in hands often enough to blow out 90% of their preflop range assuming they're at the top.

Also, Chris thinks I jammed river for some reason, even though we're $400 eff.

But if I read DC's advice, I should just bet/bet/bet when I made a hand to make money go in. Look, you can't have it both ways.

And like I said before, this hand was probably not a good candidate for a short discussion, and I regret posting it.

That being said, I'm now more convinced that a flop bet would be better than a turn raise.

Feel free to post some 44 hands of your own so we can all become better players.

tbh I just assumed you jammed river because not getting stacks in with this hand is a disaster.

I think you need to think about risk/reward some more. You keep commenting on how unlikely it is V has a jack, but those are the critical situations. Perhaps making $13 more (based on those calculations I posted earlier) is whatever. Not getting $100 in because you didnt play your boat aggressively enough is a total disaster. These types of hands revolve around the scenarios where you play for stacks. Your #1 thought flopping this hand should be "what might happen so that I didn't get stacks in when I should have", not "how can I eke out an extra $10".

All I'm trying to say is this is a basic spot and ignore DC solid advice here at your peril. Bet your underboats. Ez game.

If my screen name humor was too lame or too subtle, apologies.

i posted that fortune cookie for exactly this reason, very timely imo

bet flop ainec: i wouldn’t be surprised if PFR checks flop with QQ+ because of the trips board but will be stubborn enough to x/c into oblivion

4_4 wasn't saying not to bet AJ. What he's saying is that your logic to bet AJ but not 44 is backwards. From a strength perspective 44 and AJ are virtually the same hand here. The biggest difference between the two is that there are a lot more Jx combos in villains' range when we have 44 than when we have AJ and that is significant.

Points well taken. To be fair, later on I did get stacks in against this V in a set over set situation with a b/b/b line.

It was my read at the time that he was not going to stack off on this board texture without a Jx hand and I didn't want to outlevel myself, thus missing value. I guess my original question was a little results oriented - can we possibly get more value here from V's QT or any other draw?

DC, but compared to this V's laggy opening range, both Jx and overpairs comprise only a minority of their range. Which hands continue to a 60% PSB here that aren't overpairs or Jx? Is it not worth keeping the 2nd V in here also?

With only 2 villains in the hand, who are both better than average, preflop is kinda meh (especially if we're only ~setmining). This is a pretty good example, in that we got to the river and made less than 6x the preflop raise.

SPR is 6.5 on the flop, so it's not a hugenormous pot, and we could probably still play for stacks if the flop checked thru (although we'd need to put in a raise on one of the later streets, which is always going to look nuttish). Even though there is some argument for letting them catch up, I would mostly lean towards a small bet here of like $20 to get the ball rolling. Maybe we get played back at. Maybe someone is slow playing a J. Maybe someone calls with another pair before the board gets worse. Maybe someone calls with overs that then hit.

I'd probably raise the turn. Are we looking to play for stacks or not?

I'm also raising river.

ETA: Mostly on board with what DC said. Having said that, I do believe the smaller the SPR the more we can check while the bigger the SPR the more we have to bet. This SPR is kinda in the low-middle here, and betting probably is really best. However, that's my opinion, and I was the only one in another recent thread where everyone stated that not betting an A high flop on a fairly drawless board with middle set in just an SPR ~4 pot was horrendous, when I think it's clearly either/or/whatever.

Gmeh,imoG

I'd make the flop bet smaller to target their entire range. What we can't do is allow this street to check through and not allow our opponents to make a mistake. It's one thing to check this hand when we are in 1st position and it's a completely different thing to check when we are last to act.

Sure, there are hands that won't continue that may pick up a pair or a draw on the turn. However, at the same time there are pocket pair type hands that will shrivel up when we don't bet until the turn (when a higher turn card hits). While it may be rare that our opponents have a very strong hand on this board it's those rare occasions where we make the most money with this hand.

Why post the hand if you’re not open to advice?

I was playing $2/5 at my local casino the other day. A guy who just sat down opened the pot for a raise in late position, got calls from the CO and button (one of whom is very loose and bad and I was eager to play pots with) and I had A4 in the SB. Raiser and one of the callers had around 100bb, but the target and I were deep--both had like $1,200 in front of us. Y'all calling and trying to spike a hand against this guy? Or is this play too loose out of position? What if we were on the button? Thanks!

I would be calling for sure, given you're drawing to the nuts. Maybe there are some wizards out there who advocate a 3 bet over a call, but if button is very loose then I'd prefer a flat here to keep the pot small before I see the flop, rather than playing a potentially bloated multi way pot oop

[x] 240bb effective
[ ] deep in today’s 2/5 structures (not even the max at Wynn and $1k max is becoming more and more common)
[x] cawl anyways

obv don’t have it in this hand with a fresh opener but 3b pre seems good if Hero knows it’s likely the OR and caller will fold and spot will call wide enough for Hero’s very high cbet % to be a slam dunk

In general I think calling out of the blinds too much is a major leak many players have but suited aces play quite well multiway and they tend to be pretty easy to play OOP as long as you don't get married to top pair.

As for the button, I try to play as many hands as I can from position. In my last session a reg told me he hated having me on his left. I've heard that many times. However whales love me because if a whale is on my right playing every hand, then I will be giving him tons of action...that is if the table conditions allow it (ie other players aren't 3betting light much)

1/2. Standard? Turn is ~ the worst card in the deck, but w/ less than a PSB behind, not sure what else to do but shove when x to. If he open shoved turn, could we find a fold? We're almost 200BB deep @ $390 to start. V seems semi-loose/passive. Not sure how sticky on later streets. Thanks.

Hero (BTN): 6 6

UTG r $8, Villain c $8 + 4 overcalls, Hero c $8, SB/BB fold

Flop ($48): K 6 5

EP CB $31, V c $31, fold x 4, H r $125, fold, V c $125

Turn ($298): 9

V x, H b $257 all-in

I would snap check back and fold most rivers. 6-way he would probably raise otf with 55, K6s, or at least back raise. 87 gets there and the flush gets there in a 6-way pot. When he flats the flop, he most likely has an OESD/FD, or KQ/AK occasionally. The only worse hand i can see calling is like AcKx, he should be folding KcQx if he doesnt already otf.

Definitely check back, you're probably not getting called by anything you beat nor making better hands fold. What you do OTR if he jams is a more interesting question, but at least then he might have some bluffs in his range.

Thanks guys. Dissapointed to hear it was spew Pretty annoyed w/ myself.

@Chris - If we x back the 3rd club, and he bets river, I mean unless its like 1/4 pot or so, it's gonna be really hard to call. I basically put him on KT+, and clubs, so unless we think he's the type to turn Kx w/ a club into a bluff, it's sort of a give up situation, no? Also, if he x river again on a brick, do we bet for thin value or take our showdown?

I can’t fold sets.

Could you be more specific? Your insights/thoughts are generally quite good.

Raise a little more otf. Jam that turn. Villains have way too many Kx with one club to check back.

ok, random thoughts while sat in my daughter's dance concert.

I'm not sure about the bolded. We really don't have much of a read on villain here apart from maybe that he's loose passive. it's possible he's got this far with Kx and if x is a club then he's calling another street. We block 65 but both that and 55 are possible.

I don't play 1/2 but some of the **** random people show up with in bigger games makes me believe that a random 1/2 villain could be raising with K5ss and K6ss type hands that would certainly call flop and may well call another bet now

(I also like OP's raise sizing on the flop. Maybe he could have gone $10 more but it's definitely in the right range)

I realise I'm searching hard for hands we beat and I do think flush draws form a decent part of his range here.

Thus, turn feels like it should be a check but it also makes river more problematic, because lots of villains may read our check back on the turn as weak and may try to turn their Kx or 2 pair hand into a bluff. (I had a scenario yesterday when I flopped top two in a raised pot and c bet it on a two flush board. Turn went check check when the third flush card came in and then when the fourth flush card came on the river, Villain bet 80% pot and I ended up calling because Im a station and he'd somehow got there with top pair 10 kicker and decided to bluff)

maybe I'm overthinking it given it's 1/2 and we have no reads that villain is bluffy but I think I'm checking back turn and stationing reasonable sized river leads.

a small part of me thinks that maybe in fact the best play is a small blocking type turn bet of about $80 on the turn which could potentially get us value from hands we beat as above, would allow us to comfortably fold to a check raise or any further betting from villain and could get us a cheap showdown if he checks river to us.

hmm, not an easy spot tbh

+1 to flop being bang on however:

1/2 Villains aren’t backraising flop with 2p/whatever hardly ever (55 only hand imo), quite rare they would bluff Kx/2p on the river as well.

Hero has already achieved one of the major turn bet objectives which is to be able to get Iverson by the river with a strong hand, except as we’re discussing it’s the worst turn.

jamming turn is so much better if we change the board slightly to K♥️659♣️♣️♣️ so all the K♣️X hands are in there. it’s fine here too but this size bet in a 1/2 game on that board is one that even the loose sticky players can find folds with the hands we crush, they’ll flash a King while folding and ask you to show the bluff (but will fold).

checking turn OTOH will definitely strengthen their attachment to the crushed hands, gives Hero a free chance to fill up plus maybe V makes trup Ks, and Hero gets to play a river IP. these Vs are going to be weighted towards flushes/78 when donking blank rivers and you should be able to profile them along with their action and come to a more accurate conclusion than “loose player”.

to summarize: jamming turn gives them an escape from their inferior hands and they are never ever folding all their better hands, while checking turn allows for Hero improving and getting V to love their K or whatever while also giving Hero the same potential escape from V’s bigger hands.

we have set it up so all the money can go in on one street with 2 streets remaining, jamming turn takes that flexibility away. and we should be inclined to take advantage of that flexibility on “the worst card in the deck”.

one interesting scenario that could result from checking turn is attempting to bluff them off ~KxT♣️ on a ♣️ river that V checks but def gonna need a better read than what’s stated, and that’s not coming up often anyways.

Any play that has us folding the turn and not being able to realize our fullhouse equity is gross; I'd much rather check back, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I hate to bring up this old hand again (which I agree was misplayed by not betting flop for at least $20), but we have made 7.33x the initial preflop raise on the river ($121 - $21 - $18 - $5(rake) + $55 = $132), before we raised to $175, which V called, ending in a 14x initial preflop raise profit.

Which is approximately in line with set mining odds. I'm sure a better player could have easily gotten 18-20x. I'm not sure what you'd be doing with 44 on the BTN. Do you just fold it unless 200BB deep?

If I got defensive, it's only because it felt like half the people commenting misread the action or numbers.