Hand 3 (of 3) against V in posts #4828 & #4835

this is probably more of a line check

V limps UTG
Hero raises to 25 w/ KhJd
LP caller
V calls

Flop (75): KdQh6d
V checks
hero bets 60
LP folds
V raises to 120
hero calls

Turn (315): Jc
V checks
Hero bets 200
V calls

River (715): 3d
V bets 260
hero begrudgingly calls because:

- lolpot odd
- this line is super weird
- i have a diamond blocker
- V has some weird ideas about value hands
- hero is a fish

thoughts?

stacks? (not sure it matters much)

exactly how many fish would play diamonds

my river philosophy is don't fold when I beat bottom of Villains value range, but then they always show me a better hand.

I probably bet less on the flop, not sure that is good though.

I didn't do the math, but it sure seems like his river bet is way too small to justify his turn call if he was chasing a flush...and in spots like that I'm more than happy to pay it off because it feeds a villains -EV habit.

If villain is good though it feels a bit like a blocker bet and I think he raises anything that beats us on the turn.

He had like ~200 left behind. I covered

I don't think he is the type of V that thinks he needed to get X OTR when he called Y OTT

Do we need to talk about pre? Seems you’re in EP or MP - I’d need a very good reason to be raising KJo in earlyish position

Keep in mind that there were two callers behind me too. So an $80 3bet isn't really too big considering he's a) out of position and b) there's $45 in the pot already. It's actually probably the exact sizing I would use too if I was squeezing here with a bunch of hands. He's also a good reg as I mentioned which means he can have other hands than just AA or KK.

I'm not too worried about flushes getting there as I think he'd just jam turn a majority of the time. Straights are pretty irrelevant.

AJ is very reasonable, however he's certainly not 3betting with all his AJ probably just his AJs and maybe two combos of AJo.

He's definitely capable of pulling the trigger as a bluff. He's a good player.

True. I discounted those hands at the time because I assumed he'd just jam with them to deny any flush outs I might have myself with either AKo (if he thought I floated flop), or KK or QQ with a s. I guess he may think I could have AQss or AKss but he's not folding that if I jam turn anyway with a spr of 1. So actually now that I think about it some more I think I'm going back to my original reasoning. He should always be jamming sets on the turn to deny any flush equity I might have. Maybe I'm wrong idk.

5x due to being OOP and the money already in the pot with the callers behind me. Definitely a case to be made for 4betting smallish with this hand PF. I'm just not sure I'm ever getting action from a worse hand?

At the time I thought he'd checked because it pretty much looks like I have JJ or QQ. I didn't just jam because he could also be playing AA or KK in this manner and what worse hands are calling my jam on the turn? If I think he's capable of bluffing this hand should surely be a check to allow him to continue his bluff on the river? Also his semi bluff hands function well as a x/jam because with the J coming on the river I pretty much can only have QQ or AJs myself as I'm just getting it in with flushes or sets on the turn

No rack out so he probably doesn't know I'm leaving.

Knowing he only had 200 more behind makes this an easier call in my mind. This may be flawed thinking, but in my experience most people expect flushes to get paid when the board has big cards. A shove would be a very reasonable bet given the large pot so there's no reason he shouldn't expect a call If he shoved. That makes me think not flush.

Metagame I think it's just good to call here. I want people to expect a showdown against me in big hands, I want to pay a cheap price on river calls, and I want people to pay bad prices to draw. If he has a flush we encourage people to pay bad prices on draws by paying off here. We also "reward" his bet sizing in his mind but in all honesty seeing a showdown getting 4:1 is a win for us more than him. If he continues to offer that price we win the long run.

BBV is ........ right here.

AK is going to 3! a good chunk of the time, KQ is really the only K we're ever going to value own ourselves against. Vs might call with Ax, but i'm not getting nuts on boards with Axx.

i wouldn't open KJo from maybe 1st 2 positions in a 9 handed game, but once we're in MP, i think it's kinda standard. i also wasn't scared about anyone behind me. had there been anyone who was any good, i might not be this liberal opening.

i just had 3 kinda interesting hands against the same V, so i thought it would be fun to post because it creates a little history about a V, but didn't think it warranted a thread

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like i said, hero called, i fastrolled my KJ and V looked shocked (idk what he expects me to be betting OTT there for 2/3psb), flashed a black K and mucked.

My comment was directed toward the noob, although what was that squid quote about a dog barking...

No worries. If it had been directed at mine, it would have been a fair criticism

5/5 Bluffcatch or fold

1k eff. V is a relative unknown. Mid 30's, early 40's guy with headphones. Nothing of note after about and hour of play other than I've seen him open $20 with JJ UTG. Flops top set on J76ss. sb checks, bb bets, V flats, get re-raised by sb, then raises him.

OTTH

2 limps including V, Hero $25 w/ QQ, sb calls, limpers call

$100

KJ4

checks through

J

x,x,V $45, H calls, 2 folds

$190

5

V $145, Hero..?

Raise might be small but depends how the game plays.

Just fold the turn. The odds are very good somebody has a king or jack and it's probably that guy who bet. Yeah, maybe he has some kind of draw, but he might not even bet a draw on a scary board like this.

I think it's a little weird that your question point is the river, because if you aren't insta-snapping a bet of a size that could be a bluff when everything misses, then why are you calling the turn?

plenty of Villains only bluff one street (especially when semi-bluff)

just bet flop imo, i don't like catching here when H blocks QT/clubs

On the surface, its a fold for me. He's got at least 9 value combos we lose to versus 9 busted Ax of clubs (and he's not running a turn/river bluff 100% of the time with those combos). OTOH, when it gets checked twice from the blinds, he may feel he only needs to get through you to take it down.

We need 32% equity and against a range of 44, the remaining suited AJ/KJ/QJ/JT combos and 4 out of 9 of the busted ace-high flush draws, we only have 28%. So it's a fold.

55 would be funny too.

Obviously as we go up in stakes our winrate should probably drop at each level. I'm looking specifically at 1/2(or 1/3), 2/5, 5/5, and 5/10. Is there an accepted winrate drop % at each level or can anyone with significant experience at most of those levels shed some light on what their winrate drop percentages looked like throughout?

not itt

I’ve gone 1/2 to 2/3 and then 2/5 and 2/5/10 over the past 5 years or so. I’m a rec player so my total hours of cash are a little under 1800 from the past 5 years. To date, I’m a winner at all of these levels

I may not be the best person to answer this because I’m never the best player at my table. And I know this isn’t what you want to hear but I think it’s the wrong question. I think the games change significantly as you move higher and you need to make the right adjustments because the style of play you need to beat 2/3 is less effective as you move higher. I still haven’t made as many adjustments as I need to make. My 2/3 win rate is/was well over $30 an hour and I am not making that much in the 2/5 and 5/5 games I play. (Although I think/hope I will this year)

Yes, the competition gets tougher/better but they are all still very beatable, probably at a higher win rate. But you need to be prepared to adjust to the different game and villains and be prepared to change your game to exploit the new tendencies you see.

Lol, noob

I'm very close to an Ava if I add my mtt hours. Should hit it by mid year

This is another question for the Bankroll Winrates and Finances thread.

Line check:

1/3 six-handed

450 eff

V is a very serious young Asian grinder who reflexively bets pot or overbets whenever checked to by the PFR

Hero in BB with AJ

V in LJ limps, limp, limp, Hero raises to 18 in BB, V calls

Flop (36): QT9

c/c

Turn (36): 2

c, V 45, Hero 90, call

River (216): 4

Hero 215

Thanks in advance for any thoughts