Morning fun thoughts:

in LLSNL is it possible for a player to have a 100% value strategy and literally NEVER bluff turn a profit?

Im not talking about a nit, Im talking about a player who executes thin value with great competency and will take small edges ect ect

Absolutely. You'd be a profitable player but you'd miss a ton of spots where bluffing is more profitable.

I think any value you lose from lost C-betting and double barrels would be more than compensated for by the thin value you get from villains' garbage wide ranges if you could theoretically execute full value each time.

In a lot of LLSNL games people just never fold and bluffing is borderline profitable. Obv depends ALOT on what games u play in and players at the table but to answer your question I am SURE that you could be profitable playing 100% value strategy and never bluff.

Most of your money from LLSNL should come getting the most value out of your winning hands. You should still be c-betting good textures HU/3-way and sometimes setting up double barrels against people that peel flop wide, but if you didn't, I'd think you'd still be quite profitable in most 2/5 games

You can probably never bluff and turn a profit if your player pool means that betting a draw on the flop is sometimes a value bet rather than a semibluff.

$1/2 $300EF

UTG is loose. Saw him limp K2s UTG. Not an idiot though.

V is nitty 40´s Chinese guy.

UTG limps, hero limps 77, slightly loose TAGish player limps, V raises to $20 in MP, folded around, we all call.

*V´s range is likely AQ+,JJ+, maybe TT

$74 Flop: 336

UTG checks, hero bets $40

Is this a bad bet? Hard to imagine worse calling. I stabbed here because I don´t think V c bets his overcards and I didn´t want to give free cards. Really just hoping to take the pot now.

This is okay, you can bet less actually.

You're betting for equity protection and to get thin value from FDs, its thin because most FDs will have overcards to our 77.

If V is never Cbeting his overcards your practically giving him a free one IP.

If you bet and get called be prepared to play poker OTT

If we know he is going to bet his AA-JJ and maybe the AsKs AsQs, but check all his other AK-AQ, that is a reason to check... not to bet. If we were heads up, that would most definitely be the best play.

I would disagree with this because AK/AQ is the bulk of his range,

So if we can agree that he will not float (suspend disbelief for a moment)

He has 32 combos of AK/AQ and only 24 combos of JJ+ and 2 combos of AsKs and AsQs for 26 hands he continues with total.

nobody here should have a 3 very often right?

Is it fair to assume that the taggy guy would raise 99+? because if this is true the only hands he can continue on with would be 66, 77(we block) and 88.

So with the Taggy guy continuing hardly ever, and the PFR folding >50% of the time we can profitable bet something like 30-35

The nit might call for $30. We´re checking the turn. If it´s a big card I think even a nit might put us on spades/weak hand and find a bet. Then we get bluffed out of the hand. This is my fishy thinking anyway. (buddy actually tank folded to the $40, muttered something about spades.) I tend to oversize my probe bets in general though TBH.

I would think the loose player will have a 3 near 5% of the time, the tag probably only has A3s or 43s.

I agree with your analysis of the pfr, I think the tag can continue to play with around 15% of his range though(bunch of FD's), the loose player probably more like 25% of the time if it folds to him, but we don't care about the loose player since we will be ahead of his range and have position.

Anyways, I was just commentating before on how if this spot was heads up, the read on the pfr would lead us to checking over betting.

If hes a nit hes not floating, nits by nature are scared money, very straightforward and don't put money in without a strong hand.

I have a really hard time believe a nit is going to float(ak/aq) this with atleast 1 player(UTG i think?) behind him with a hand that could be drawing dead or super thin.

Multiway though.

Perhaps my description was not great. Though, in a previous hand he backdoored the 2nd nut Flush on the river, bet $100 into $200 and a guy shoved $140more and he agonised for like 90sec before calling.

If he is a thinking player at all though, he should realize I have only like 5 combos that he isn´t drawing live against. And he can be ahead if I have spades.

Not disagreeing with you at all. Just thinking out loud.

K i got a very standard scenario to ask yall about that i hate dealing with

2/5, $400-600 stacks

5 limps at seemingly passive new table i check bb w/Jd9h

Flop 10c9s7c

Hero hates all options but my current default is to begin by checking and likely fold unless maybe it checks to last person to act and he makes a weak bet...

Check/call with a plan to check/fold most turns (unless we're up against a late position & aggro player) unless we turn the nizzles.

If someone in the field bets and is called in a few spots, just c/f flop.

Deleted

My $0.02: by limp/calling PF and leading flop, your hand screams low pocket pair. Prepare to get owned on turn/river by a good player. Raise pre. Don't limp.

At a new table, I might check-call just to test how willing players are to fire on the turn.

This is a pretty easy check/fold. What card would you be hoping for on the turn? I guess a 9 maybe?!?

A super station may float you with overs, but I would never ever expect a 1/2 "nit" to float with A high. The possibility isn't even worth considering until 5/10+.

You are giving the guy way to much credit. Zero chance he is thinking, "This guy has mostly air here, so I'm going to call with A high and bet all turns when checked to." Zero. You are killing yourself by thinking too much here.

A small bet is fine. If he is only going to put more money in the pot later if he hits a better hand, then we would prefer not to give a free card.

also check and maybe get odds to call if an EP players bets and there are several calls before you. Mostly just c/f though.

Also, no reason to hate this spot. We got a free play from the BB and hit weakly. We played fit or fold for free and didn't fit. Onto the next one...

Kind of embarrassed to be posting this one, but here goes:

V is a fish playing every hand. Calls raises with a lot of junk. Not raising pf tons, but an aggro donkey post flop. Bad sizing tells. Likes to donk bet, go after orphan pots. Not a thinking player. $110

Hero has a snug winning image and a big stack. Joking about jacks going ''straight into the muck'' pf. Mostly winning pots before showdown, though did win a big pot with 74s on button. V might think I am ABC.

Only 1 hand we played together: $300 Eff. I opened UTG KK for $17 he called BB. Board:9765A . He bet $25 on every street and I just called him down.

Some limpers, V opens for $17 on button, SB folds, hero raises AKto $45 in BB, folded back to V who calls.

($Flop: A75

Hero checks to let V hang himself?

kk hand: You need to be getting more value. Could've made a boatload vs a lot of hands.

AK hand: what hands do you expect him to bet? If he always bets when checked to then its fine, but my guess is you are better off just value betting.