Yeah, agree calling the QTo is probably worst option between 3bet/call/fold.

Yeah. Not shoving all in pre with 66 or with 44 on a 6d7dTh board against some guy with no fold button. You beat this guy by making a hand and value betting the heck out of it, or letting him do the betting if he is so inclined.

Why do you want to shove weak hands against a guy that never folds? Why do you want to flip (even with some dead money in the pot) versus a guy that can't play poker?

I'm kinda of just repeating what kookie says, but stop shoving marginal hands against this type of player. You're just making the game easy for him when you're not in great spots.

Save these type of shoves for the super nitty guys that refuse to get stacks in without the nuts. This guy is like the antithesis of that.

1/2nl

New to table, so no strong reads.

Villain 1, young (mid 20s?) asian hoodie wearer - $600 stack
Villain 2, OMC, $150 stack
Hero, OMC $200 stack

OMC open limps
Hero, 5s4s, overlimps
Hoodie calls in sb
BB (irrelevant in hand) checks option.

JsTs2s (pot $6)

Hoodie checks
OMC leads $5
Hero raise to $15
Hoodie colds.
BB folds.
OMC flats.
(pot ~$50)

Turn: JsTs2s 7d

Hoodie checks.
OMC checks.
Hero $50.
Hoodie calls.
OMC calls.

Pot ~$200.

River: Turn: JsTs2s7d Ac

Hoodie eyes hero's stack and puts out $100 bet.
OMC snap calls off his remaining stack.

Hero?

Has the 3rd best hand?

If you are thinking of raising and getting called by hoodie wearer, then you must think he is bad (or could be bad). If that is the case min raise and fold to shove. I think we are rarely behind OMC, and are probably behind hoodie wearer. Pot is $400 and we have to call $100. I think it is an easy call and will tell us a lot about how hoodie wearer plays.

I'm cool with preflop.

I'd fold the flop. Our implied odds suck due to (a) our OESD bringing 4-to-a-straight on board (where we're not going to get paid off, plus we could be losing to a bigger straight) and (b) there's a decent chance we'll be chopping with someone else who has 5x with all this action. Our set outs could also be no good. Otherwise I'm thinking we might be too deep to jam and take advantage of our FE to go with our hand equity.

ETA: No one else thinks calling here is bad? We're not even getting our required 5:1, have no implied odds, only RIO, and if anyone else has 5x we're chopping all winnings (so we're down to like ~2.x:1). Calling is pretty bad, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Villain has a tendency to shove turn, so we're probably only playing for the turn card and we won't see river if we miss. When villain shoves turn, pot is going to be ~$240 and we'll have the benefit of closing the action.

We're getting like 9:1 implied odds to peel, and we're like 5:1 to catch a nutty hand versus UTG+1.

I peel, c-f if we miss ck-evaluate if we catch straight or set.

Calling with the 55 is bad but still better than raising.

Eff stacks were 150 200 200, jam is less than pot vs aggressor and only $25 overbet against the other two.

Question was threadworthy with more reads on the range of autopiloting aggressor and associated FE. I see a +EV shove spot with reasonable amount of FE based on the info provided, others do not.

1/2 latenight

V is a terrible spewy LAG, basically raising every hand to $25. Hero limp RR´d him with premium cards several times and won some huge pots all in on the flop. V had 99 and over bet raised all in ($600) after hero c bet 1/2PSB on 334board. He is the main mark at the table. Has rebought a bunch of times. Going after every pot post flop if checked to him or a street gets checked though. $750ish

V2 is a bad spewy LAG also, a little more of a thinker and more cautions post flop. Feeding off V also. $1600

Hero has a TAGish image. Though last orbit I raised KJo on the button and had to show it down. Is sandwhiched between the two LAGS. Basically have been playing nitty, planning to limp RR V1 with premiums and build big pots pf. Have opened middle pp´s a few times to ''set the price''. Went 6 ways for $15 each time. $1400

Rest of stacks at table range from $85-$300

Bunch of limpers including V2, hero raises AT to $20, V calls behind, all the limpers call

(133) Flop: K92

Checked to hero who bets $65, V makes it $200, folded back to hero who ships??

***Not sure why I didn´t go for the limp RR pf. Perhaps my inner nit didn´t think my hand was good enough to justify the inevitable $200 I was going to put in pre. Possibly I levelled myself into believing V1 might just limp this time around (sensing a RR coming).

looks good KM, take a ride on the Variance Train! need 42%, have 45% against Kx.

hand 2 happened earlier in the night.

Hero has been at table for 30min or so, saw a couple of flops with small pp´s, mostly just folding. Been topping off my stack to max. ($500)

V is same V from previous hand. Was opening every hand for only $10-15 at this point. Sitting on $1200


callingstation fish without much of a fold button limps UTG ($350), some other limps (shortish), V makes it $10 in MP, YoungGuy (with $113) whom I´ve never seen before makes it $30 on button (fair to assume he is mostly playing his own cards, not capable of light 3! against V), Hero looks down at Aces n BB and?

Standard PSB raise or make it $65 hoping to get some callers and that YoungGuy will shove and open the betting for hero to 6bet?

In hand 1 hero was in CO

I like the $65 plan. Worst case might be 4 to the flop for that amount, which is a pretty sweet worst case.

Did you ship vs. V1 or V2?

If you thought V would x/r/call shove with a worse flush draw, then I love it. If not, it's pretty spewy as against a LAGtard without a fold button, getting him to fold a pair is optimistic at best.

Were two pair+ in that range you ran?

I like checking the flush draw on the flop. It seems like there is a good chance someone spews all in if you hit, so you don't need to build the pot.

I like your thinking. It's good to think outside the box. I would caution you here. I would figure your equity against V's range (it's not that great, as wide as his range is), then figure your equity against V's range plus a range one of the blinds would be willing to call with, then figure the probability that one of the two blinds picks up such a hand.

My intuition would be that the perhaps $10 in EV we make the majority of the time is countered and more by the not-as-rare-as-you'd-think number of times one of two players has a hand and crushes us. Especially if you've already done it once and the blinds call wider as a result.

But maybe I'm wrong. Stove it and see.

I ran no ranges. That's our equity against a single typical kx hand. V has way more draws, air, and 9x combined than 2pair+. I'm confident it's a +EV shove against described V without stoving a calling range and estimating FE.

^^^^ (@ DK regarding preflop overshove)

Isn't this play pretty bad?

The chance the small blind or big blind wake up with TT+ is like 5%. Which means at least 1 out of 20 times we get looked up. The 19 times we don't, we win $118.75; the one time we do, we get $140 in as a 80% dog, for I think a -EV of about -$83. So on the surface given this it looks profitable. *But*, I'm not even including the amount of times the blinds wake up with AK, AQs, etc. , nor the times the CO actually has a hand. And, as DK says, we're going to get looked up even lighter (99/etc.) as soon as we show one hand.

ETA: Although, ha, we're actually ahead of AK/AQs/etc., plus we're putting them to a huge test. Interesting, maybe it's not as horrendous as I originally thought and might require more thought. The chances of one of these guys having 77+ is ~12%. Assuming they fold every other hand, that means 7 times we take down $6.25 = $43.75, and then 1 time we get in $140 as a 4:1 dog for -$82.9, for an overall EV of -$39.15. So it looks pretty bad to me even re-examining it. But there's also a good chance my math is wrong, feel free to correct me.


Gbottomeline:riskingsomuchtowinsolittleseemsludicr ous,imoG

My gut told me it's probably profitable if his assumptions are correct, but disastrous if they're not. The results kind of agree but one finding surprised me.

We're 63.3% against {atc} for an EV of $37

I'm going to assume blinds call with {TT+, AJs+, AQ} which is 5% because in my world the blinds are dumb scared babies. Which means we are looked up 1-(.95^2) times which is 9.75% (we are called by both about a tenth of a percent so we're not going to worry about that scenario)

Against a range of {atc} and a range of {TT+, AJs+, AQ} we have an EV of -$16.6

So that's .9025*37 (only crazy calls) plus .0975*-16.6 (crazy and blind call) which makes a total EV of $31.70

So in that scenario our overshove is actually very profitable. But if crazy guy ever folds it gets a lot worse. Suppose crazy man only calls 75% now, which is still insane. Our equity is now 59%. There is now also a case where crazy guy folds but a blind calls.

EV(All fold): $6
P: .23

EV(Only crazy calls): $25.2
P: .68

EV(Crazy and blind call): -$18.6
P: .07

EV(Only blind calls): -$31.7
P: .02

Total EV: $16.60

Still pretty nice. Now suppose crazy guy calls 50% but the blinds call about 10% {88+,ATs+,KJs+,ATo+,KJo+}

EV(All fold): $6
P: .405

EV(Only crazy calls): $13.55
P: .405

EV(Crazy and blind call): -$8.4
P: .09

EV(Only blind calls): -$18
P: .10

Total EV: $5.36

Finally let's give crazy V a sane calling range of 25%. Our equity against that finally drops a hair below 50%.

EV(All fold): $6
P: .61

EV(Only crazy calls): -$1.72
P: .20

EV(Crazy and blind call): -$10.94
P: .05

EV(Only blind calls): -$17.45
P: .14

Total EV: 33¢

Caveats:
1. We assume that V's raising range is 100% in all cases. If his raising range is narrowed at all (Say he raises only 50% of the time, meaning he will be calling with a 25% range half of the time rather than a quarter of the time) it changes the results for the worse. This is probably the case.
2. I would not count on any player calling off 300bb preflop with 25% of hands. And that is the scenario where you break even. He needs to be calling a ridiculous 50% for you to make anything remotely significant.

I did find it interesting that the blinds calling wider didn't seem to have much of an effect. I guess because pairs are so rare that it doesn't matter that we're crushed by higher ones because we have an advantage over all the many unpaired combinations.

Come to think of it, it's probably more realistic that the blinds call like KK+. (Reminded of a time at 1/2 where a guy was genuinely going all-in blind every hand and a lady folded AK face up for $300 last to act.) And I think that's worse for you even though it means they fold much more.

Ya, a lot depends on how "crazy" the raiser is, how MUBSy-wait-for-a-better-spot the blinds are, plus our image to this point.

GmygutstilltellsmethisisrecklessthoughG

Against V1 who is on the button.