Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Because I was asked...
1/3 NL, Friday afternoon
EP ($300) opens to $15, 3 callers to me on the Button with 44 ($350), I call, and Villain (covers) calls in SB.
Flop (6 players, $90): 974r
Checked to EP who cbets $40. I flat. Villain check/raises to $100. EP shoves $240 total. Hero?
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Villain is a white middle aged reg and we've played lots of hours together and get along well. He is fairly tight ABC and most likely a winning player.
...
He has told me in the past how he knows he has a tight image and is trying to use that to his advantage, but I think that is perhaps some polite BS on his part as well. He's by-the-book, and ain't going to get too out-of-line.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
EP obviously has an overpair as it's unlikely he's raising 99 preflop or cbetting air into eleventeen opponents. Villain knows this and is never expecting EP to fold to his small check/raise, especially in a pot this size.
Villain cannot have AA/KK because he would definitely raise with all this preflop action. He would also probably raise QQ here with all the dead money. It's slightly possible he has JJ/TT and is scared of being up against EP's overpair, but if so, he's never going nuts on the flop like this.
First thing first.
1. V is aware of his own image.
2. V is a winning player.
3. Board is dry, leaving very little room for draws.
4. $100 is a big bet in 1/3 game.
Given all of above, V probably believes that his CR carries decent amount of FE. And perhaps he may be doing it subconsciously, there is enormous value to turn his thin value hand into a bluff given the pot size and size of his CR.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
He's tight preflop, so 94/74 are absolutely out.
It's *possible* he *might* play T8s/97s/86s due to pretty much closing the action and seeing a big pot brewing.
He is not semi-bluffing T8s/86s due to not expecting to have FE against EP, plus he has to be wary of my flat. He's getting slightly over 4:1 odds closing the action, he'll simply call these hands and hope to hit.
Why isn't FE expected against EP? EP made a weakish bet of $40 into pot of $90, not even 1/2 PSB bet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
So that leaves 97s/99/77. He's not 3betting 99/77 preflop for much the same reasons he might even flat with JJ/TT.
Why can't he have JJ/TT? How is CR'ing $100 to a weakish $40 bet with $170 in the pot "going nuts?"
And if you indeed believe that CR $100 a strong move, then it actually strengthens V's belief that he has tons of FE against EP.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
But with 97s, doesn't he just sometimes lead the flop? Probably the best hand, but somewhat vulnerable, sorta ok with taking down things right now or going against EP.
In other words, you think if V's holding top 2 or better, he would lead instead of CR $100 and going nuts?
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
And does he really check/raise "just" top two pair with my flat? For those into "tells", he didn't take that much time in sizing his small check/raise, and he also didn't look at me, almost as if "oh, huh? what, you're still in the hand, oh, jeez, didn't even really realize that".
Basically you're saying that you have no flatting range less than set on a dry board, and that you think people should recognize that?
Are people really that bad in your pool? If so, how do you rationalize that they're these super players capable of all these things?