[NL400] Hard decision vs shove turn - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash

[NL400] Hard decision vs shove turn

Post Reply Subscribe

...

11-04-2008 , 10:08 AM

Pechcore

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 132

No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (10 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($408)
Hero (UTG+2) ($845.80)
MP1 ($388)
MP2 ($384)
MP3 ($80)
CO ($509.50)
Button ($401.30)
SB ($451)
BB ($92.70)
UTG ($349.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 5

, 5

UTG calls $4, 1 fold, Hero raises $14, 7 folds, UTG calls $10

Flop: ($34) A

, J

, 10

(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($34) 5

(2 players)
UTG bets $16, Hero raises $66, UTG raises $319.80 (All-In)

Total pot: $166

Vilain is 28/15/1 with 0% of 3bet in 80hands
I'm playing at the table a basically 14/10/4

Call ?

Quote

11-04-2008 , 11:27 AM

SirRaisealot

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 434

How is this a tough decision? You're raising to get it in, aren't you?

Quote

11-04-2008 , 12:55 PM

13_Xerxes

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 3,968

Fold, you will see KQo a lot imo. Two pairs are very unlikeky (unless he got A5s or JT, but 3 bets all-in with these hands are sucide imo), and maybe he can have AA.

I like the raise on the turn : his bet is small, the board is very drawy, you can raise/fold.

So, you repp nothing, unless you got 55, but I don't think it is +ev to call the shove. OK, sometimes, he can bluff with Q9dd or 9hTh, but wp if that is the case.

Quote

11-04-2008 , 01:09 PM

lionking130

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 823

he isnt raising to get it in but to protect from draws.

agaist 28/20 this is still a call for me .. maybe marginaly bad maybe marginalyl good but theres enough in pot.

i thought about this andi think he actually do showup with 2pairs enogugh here. imo AK too. like sometimes it seem to me these guys are for an hour on table just to do something stupid and get stacked.

Quote

11-04-2008 , 01:09 PM

WireySpinde11

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 606

Instafistpumpturbocall.

I believe his range here is AJ, AT, KQ, A5s and combo draws (lots of em). No freaking way you can fold here and not be incredibly exploitable.

Also, what's with the 3Bet stat? We're using this to evaluate the turn? 3 Bets on the turn are going to take a LONG time to converge.

Quote

11-04-2008 , 01:10 PM

WireySpinde11

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 606

Quote:

Originally Posted by 13_Xerxes

Fold, you will see KQo a lot imo. Two pairs are very unlikeky (unless he got A5s or JT, but 3 bets all-in with these hands are sucide imo), and maybe he can have AA.

If he'll limp call with KQ here, don't you think he would with AJ and AT as well?

Quote

11-04-2008 , 01:29 PM

Pechcore

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 132

Quote:

Originally Posted by WireySpinde11

3bet% pf

Quote

11-04-2008 , 02:37 PM

WireySpinde11

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 606

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pechcore

3bet% pf

Oh, so the idea is 0% 3Bet means opponent is more likely to flat big hands? Over 80 hands, I think this stat is irrelevant.

Quote

11-04-2008 , 03:13 PM

Ricky1231

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,663

Wait.. what? You has a set. Call and be happy.

btw there's ot even a chance that this is "marginally bad" it's insta hero "godirunsogoodatturningsets imsohappyYAYICALL!!!!"

lol at you guys' understanding of zeee odddds and noooooo smaple sizez YO!

Quote

11-05-2008 , 10:29 AM

#10

13_Xerxes

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 3,968

Yeah, change my mind. Villain is a donk, not full stack and can limp AJ/AT as well.

High variance call, but maybe a little +ev.

Quote

11-06-2008 , 11:43 PM

#11

wakeup

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,936

the range your representing on the turn is soooooo narrow, but dunno if villain knows it. if he does, shovellll

at least he has a missed flop c/r in his range, as well as improving with the 5

Quote

11-08-2008 , 12:06 PM

#12

Moke

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 244

I call too, I think he can show double pair, a missplayed draw or some weird hand enough times.

Quote

11-08-2008 , 04:36 PM

#13

bigdog6391

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 385

you beat 2 pair. call

Quote

11-09-2008 , 10:01 AM

#14

Smellyrocks

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 104

insta call

Quote

11-09-2008 , 05:23 PM

#15

holdem2000

adept

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 709

yea, this is a really easy call to me... villain can have plenty of 2 pair hands, AQ, AdXd (just about all of them), a lot of Kx, Qx of hearts or diamonds, and a few random spew bluffs since your range is narrowed to pretty much sets and bluffs.

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...