I have played a ton with villain, so I have accurate stats. He plays 16/8 with 3% 3Bet vs steal and 78% Fold to Steal. He is extremely passive and nitty postflop - Agg Freq. 19%, raising 8% of c-bets. My Image is solid/TAG.


I felt folding the flop would be a little too weak, because I dont see him just c/calling a straight- or flushdraw (although possible) and I have backdoor spades + blockers to 77 and AT. But I wasnt comfortable about coming over the top of this guy without the nuts either.

The Turn didnt change so much other than 98 becoming a bit more unlikely (card removal+he might very well check that) and the fact that he was betting big again.

So I became scared with such a passive player raising the flop and betting big on the turn. Do you call the turn/do something differently? Calling the Flop to fold on a relatively blank turn might be a mistake.

I think that's fine. It's not like the nit is going to pick up on that and bluff more often.

Even I want to fold and thats saying something

if a passive nit raise/bets it, he has it.
fold is fine. depending on how nitty he is, you can even fold the flop since the only hand he can possible have, that you beat would be T7 or some combodraw

Fold the flop. It isn't weak, it's the right thing to do against his range. He has at least a combodraw (this is when he is bluffing) and if the turn is non-spade or does not bring you a fh, you're folding (spade makes you call again and fh might or might not be good and even these scenarios happen only 25 % of the time). He has a low aggression, but bare in mind that he raised already, which he does 8 % of the time that generally means that he has it and will continue aggression.

wrong thread.

Fold.