POKERSTARS GAME #20497298944: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($2/$4) - 2008/09/18 5:00:58 ET
Table 'Aspasia' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 3: chrisleecool ($379.60 in chips)
Seat 4: pterodactyl6 ($382 in chips)
Seat 6: BLUFFinSON!! ($548.05 in chips)
Seat 7: Pokemyface85 ($451.95 in chips)
Seat 9: yymee ($388 in chips)
bolt777 will be allowed to play after the button
chrisleecool: posts small blind $2
pterodactyl6: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pterodactyl6 [7 6]
BLUFFinSON!!: folds
Pokemyface85: folds
yymee: raises $4 to $8
chrisleecool: folds
pterodactyl6: calls $4
*** FLOP *** [3 7 8]
pterodactyl6: checks
yymee: bets $12
pterodactyl6: calls $12
*** TURN *** [3 7 8] [2]
pterodactyl6: checks
yymee: checks
*** RIVER ***[3 7 8] [2] [4]
pterodactyl6: checks
NLife leaves the table
yymee: bets $44
pterodactyl6: raises $144 to $188

what do you guys think of this? Is he folding enough of his range? Is this gonna be +EV in the longterm against a nit like him?

I don't mind this, as long as you're capable of this play with sets/flushes/straights.

1) maybe its a matter of taste, but i like leading out the flop or c/r the flop, your hand plays difficult oop on later streets just if villain has high turncbet

2) i think your range you're representing on the river ist pretty much Axh or Kxh, otherwise with a smaller flush or a set you had to lead out the turn imo and valueraising the river is not easy with that hands.
Don't know, on which level villain is thinking , but your raise on the river should tell a believable story to succeed and at least in an EV theoretical vacuum there are not many hands you can have according to your action.

Anyway its a creative idea and maybe higher +EV than folding.

History with villain or table image or stuff are worth considering here....

i dont really like it... seems high risk low reward to me

I don't know opp, but this seems good. The only problem is that you didn't raise the flop which you would do with most FDs on this flop, but yeah, its pretty easy to miss that in a quick analysis and just be like "oh **** river raise, he has da flush. fold"

Everytime i get to this point (as the river better facing the raise), I start saying son of a bitch i swear this is always the nuts. But then i call because im a station and its hard to fold rivers, and a huge chunk of the time its actaully a bluff and i laugh about it.

I think you risk too much and are too likely to be looked up but it really cant be that terrible if its -ev.

Also a point id like to make is if you do this for value enough it is actually -ev for him to be calling without a very tight range.

Unfortunately its one of those spots where our opponents very rarely play optimally and although he should fold a large chunk of the time i think curiosity + his likeliness to have a decent piece in order to bet river make this probably just a c/f.

Another point, i like this line for value.

An example of why this line makes people want to call. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/11...-3-6-a-297532/ . I understand this is a bit of a different scenario because of board texture and its hu but that line always brings out bluff catchers.

he's not value betting thinly enough for this to be very good

I like it because it might work and is great for metagame. If I knew you have this play in your playbook I would not **** with the dactyl!!!!!

yeah vs you its just fine, not so much vs hudge nit

I'd much rather just give up on this one. The pot is relatively small, you're now risking 188 to win 88 in the hope that Villain is value-betting thin and isn't curious enough to look you up with the weaker part of his range because your river c/r looks suspicious on that board.

You need him to fold approximately 70% of the time for this to be profitable -- I doubt you're getting that many folds here ...