Vilain is 18/14 ~4k+ hands, raises 14% in EP, and barrels a ton (cbet 75%, cbet turn 45%, cber river 75%).

How often can we expect him to fire the turn with a jack? Considering he cbet the flop vs 3 players, firing the turn with AJ for instance looks very thin to me. I'm almost never calling him with worse (and I don't have KJ- all that often in my pre-flop calling range anyway).

Can we find a call?


Lesozavodsk (No DP) 5/10, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

saw flop | saw showdown

Button Button ($543.74)
SB ($1097)
BB ($1589)
UTG UTG ($1763)
UTG+1 ($2126)
MP Hero ($1000)
MP MP ($2243)
CO-1 ($192)
SB ($966.35)

Preflop: Hero is in MP with K K
UTG raises to 40, 1 fold, Hero calls 40, MP calls 40, 2 folds, Button calls 40, 2 folds.

Flop (180) 2 2 J
UTG bets 100, Hero calls 100, 2 folds.

Turn (380) 3
UTG bets 270, Hero calls 270.

River (920) J
UTG bets 1353 (600$ to call)

I call vs this villain getting those odds.

How often do we put him on J from an UTG raise? With his firing tendencies I would look him up. You hand is pretty underrepped and unless you have history with him here i dont see him shoving when any J now is tied. That seems like he would be losing a ton of value against any mid PP here.

if you win he has QQ, if you lose he has AA

raise flop

as played call river

Don't like it at all ... that would be totally overplaying my hand imo.

lolol i need to get on these euro sites

I'm not really sure what you mean by that ...

FWIW, iPoker's FR players are prolly looser than players on Stars of FTP.

Anyways, it doesn't really change the fact that my hand does much better vs the range of hands that will give me one or two more bets if I call the flop, than vs the range of hands that will continue if I raise.

UTG raiser cbets in a 4-way pot. I can't expect him to bet light very often. Therefore, he can't realistically expect me to raise him light either. So what's the point in trying to win a big pot on the flop?

I would love to know what is your typical raising range on that flop so you expect people to easily ship QQ or AJ vs you.

i like how you played it personally

river is a ^5 snap call

I think he's QQ, AA, and total air a lot (busted diamonds?). like the guy above said I think the most likely scenario is you beating QQ, and losing to AA. As played, I can't see folding river w/ KK, ever.

wtf if the play is looser doesnt that make overplaying your hand +EV anyways

wtf wtf wtf


god

prob just snap this one off, we don't shove turn why?

Even if I feel the games are looser, I still don't think that most players would call (or 3-bet) my raise with many hands that I beat.

Anyways, even if raising is +EV, that doesn't mean it's the best play (i.e. the most +EV) ... but I'm sure you knew that already.

For the same reasons I don't like raising the flop : I think it's thin, and calling gives the opportunity for vilain to continue his bluffs (which is far from negligible vs such a vilain).

you really think he fires three rounds of air if u just call turn?? i think your hand looks a lot like JJ or quads after u flat two streets tbh

so he folds all hands on the turn except for the nuts?!?!?!?

OP I would say vwp except you are considering folding the river

someone stop me before i start posting strategy fgoihjsdofj

OP is a nit when he flats two streets on this board he never has a flush draw and he never has AJ, so whatis villain putting him on. if u raise/get it in on flop villain shud be stacking off pretty wide

I agree, you are losing alot of value by not raising at any one point in this hand unless you know he will fire 3 barrels of air. I would say this play is good for mixing it up but not the norm.


The fact that he doesnt slow down when the J hits makes his line bluffy.
Thoughts?

I agree with the first part (except for me being a nit, but whatever ...), but I also think that in some multiway FR pots, there is not that much one can do in order to rep a wider range profitably. If we assume vilain cbetting range to be narrow to start with, I just don't see how we could start calling/raising him with a wide range. Seems spewy to me, but I might be wrong ... any thoughts?

if u have read he is barreling and opening 13% of hands how is this not a snap call ?
esp if u underep kk to that wide range u have to call this omg....

Looks fine to me, and call river.

If he has AA then you were going to get stacked no matter what so whatever.

raise turn, for sure

By raising the flop, you can narrow his range a little more IMO, he might open it with AJs (MAYBE) but you pretty much know he is not going to call a 3 bet with AJ. I never like flat calling with KK. I mostly play live (1-2, 2-5) though and don't have that much experience online.

^
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yes there are J in his range and then u just have to kick urself in head sometimes when you undrep big hands and swear to god u 3b next time...but mostly u'll be alright

You really think Villain isn't doublebarrelling most of his JX hands and shoving the river with them?