Quote:
Originally Posted by joker4
Agree. It seems in live NL1/2 players are very loose.
It seems to depend a lot on what we assume about villain. Since I bet into three opponents otf villain might put me on a pretty strong range and therefore call with a narrower range as well. He might fold middle pair sometimes but I do see him continuing with QTs because they are drawing against my strong made hands. Also it make some sense to sometimes continue with AhQx which has many outs against my Kx.
Depending on what we assume about villain I see him folding Kx middle pair against 2/3 bet sometimes. From his view many of my A-high draws have improved to TP. Also his calling range has improved (QTs, many A-high draws). So me barreling again looks strong and he might decide to fold Kx.
So in retrospect I'd bet 45% on both turn and river so I extract value from his Kx more often on the turn and still get the money in against his Ax.
Just so we're clear - your preferred line here is betting almost full pot on the flop, then betting less than half-pot on the turn, and less than half-pot on the river?
So...you do you, but that doesn't seem like the optimal line here.
V flat called pre from the BB, so he has the widest range pre-flop, but we can mostly rule out hands like JJ, AK, and AJs. Then he called a pot-sized bet on the flop, from OOP. He has a hand. It isn't 2P or a set. It's 1P, a draw, or 1P + a draw. So his range on the flop is like KX, JX, QT, some XXhh, or maybe he gets sticky with A6.
The only hands in his range that improve to a hand better than ours on the turn are QT, AJo, and A6. We have everything else in his range crushed. Why would we want to bet 45% pot, giving him better than 3:1 odds to continue, when most of his range is just going to check-fold the river if he doesn't improve, or bet / check-raise huge when he sucks out?
It's not just the weirdness of betting pot on flop and less than half on the turn with a vulnerable hand, it's that it looks so weak that it will sometimes induce raises from worse hands that look like exactly what we were afraid of. The only reason to bet small there would be to keep his worse hands in or induce a raise when we have the nuts.