Quote:
Originally Posted by YanasaurBBQ
Sometimes sure, but theres not that much value. And even when he does have K9 or 99 or 44 how often is he going to donk turn small with it? The pattern is small donk is draw, large donk is value. So you could give him some value hands, but he could also have weak Kx that calls off a jam too. Theres way more combos we are ahead of than behind. I dont see how jamming isnt the best line vs a loose passive that donks small on turn.
It's 1/2, with $200 effective. They're playing Bingo with Monopoly money at these stakes, when they're 100bb deep, which is really more like 60bb, when guys are opening to 5x ($10).
When V limps in for $2, hero raises to $10, and the BB calls, the pot is $25 when action gets back to him. He's getting over 3:1 on a call, with massive implied odds. V's range could literally be ATC.
He didn't donk flop. He donked turn, on an off-suit 7. So, he could also have K7s or 97s here, which would make at least as much as, if not more sense than K9, 99, or 44. He limp-called from the CO, so his range can also include K4s, 94s, and 74s. Basically, I'm giving him every 2P combo here.
We can't assume V is good, and knows what he's doing. He may not know what's in the pot when he bets "small" on the turn. Or maybe he does, and he's just trying to set up a 1/2-2/3 pot jam on the river.
Your point was that we want to jam turn and have him call with his flush draws, because he'll only get there on the river about 20% of the time. But we can't know for sure that he's ONLY donking like this with flush draws.
If he wants to donk with his draws, why not donk the flop? Why donk turn? His turn donk is more consistent with a value hand that improved on the turn, and is now trying to protect against a draw - hands like K7s, 97s, and 74s. Hell, he could have gotten here with 77, and he's praying we jam.
My point is that if we jam turn, not only will his draws get there about 20% of the time, we're also already beat a good portion of the time, because his preflop limp-calling range could be ATC, allowing his turn donking range to have a $hlt-ton more 2P than we might otherwise expect.
If we jam turn, he's folding all his air-ball bluffs, and a lot of his weak value. He's calling with every hand that already beats ours, and YOLO calling with a lot of hands that have a bunch of equity to improve.
If we flat call turn, he gets to the river with all the hands we beat, and he might be fool enough to continue barreling with a lot of them. If he checks to us on the river, and we think our hand is good, we can still bet.
But, if you want to jam over every turn donk at 1/2, because there was a flush draw on the flop, be my guest. Let us know how often it works out.