Poker Stars $10/$20 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
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UTG: $2347.00
UTG+1: $7451.45
MP1: $2808.00
Hero (MP2): $2109.00
CO: $2000.00
BTN: $2169.50
SB: $621.95
BB: $820.00

CO posts a big blind ($20)

Pre Flop: ($50.00) Hero is MP2 with 7 7
3 folds, Hero raises to $100, CO raises to $320, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2109 all in

Not too much history with this player, played a little 25/50 with him last night and if iirc he was pretty fishy. This is his first hand at the table, he just sat down at the table. I jammed and another reg i talked to disgreed with me on this decision. THoughts?

there's nothing odd about buying in full and posting in the CO... far different than a guy that buys in for a weird amount (his whole bankroll) and posts from whatever random position he is in at the time. Don't really see any justification for this

agree with some of this

that being said, does he really call with much worse? (at best your going to be flipping a bunch) i'm still trying to work out if this is for value or your trying to get him to fold?

I think you can find a better spot vs fish. I don't think you have as much fold equity vs fish, so not a fan of this.

Meh, He's not ever really folding so you're either gonna be dominated or flipping. It's not too bad I guess but I can't see it being +ev.

this is what I was thinking

if villain is really a fish, he is not going to be on the same level as you (i.e. he is not thinking "wcg is opening light here so i can put in a reraise and get him off his hand", he is thinking "so lucky i get the AK first hand!"

some books claim (mostly for live cash) that posting in the CO is actually +EV on a cost/hand basis so i wouldnt put too much stock in that

Meh my thoughts were this

when he folds we win $420
when he calls hes gonna have 88+/AQ+(if we drop AQ i think we have to drop 88-TT so this seems fairly accurate I think), we have 34% equity here and we are putting in 1900 so.

y420 + x(-646) = Breakeven

where x is call and y is fold, means he has to fold slighlty more then 60% of the time for it to be + ev. In my experience I actually think he is folding way more then that in this scenario.

Results: I Jammed and he folded very quickly

I think 88+/AQ+ is like a 6% range. So if you are assuming he folds 60+% of his range, then you are assuming he 3bet with 15% of his hands. I'm not saying there aren't fish out there who would do this with 25+% of their hands, but I don't know if I would say 15% is my baseline assumption for villain's 3bet range. I'm glad it worked out for you, but not sure if was necessarily the theoretical correct play. But really, only you would know, since none of us have a read on him from the previous night.

u thought this while playing the hand? bot!

i guess my only question is why? What about the fact that he's 3betting on his first hand...in past experience people usually don't 3bet too light on the first hand theyre dealt. Also if he's a fish it would seem that he's calling you with 88+ as well as AQ and AK and the likelihood of him 3betting lighter than that on his first pot seems not very likely to me. Bottom line you're probably getting it in 4:1 dog or even money against a fish...isn't the idea to do just the opposite?

why is shoving better than making it $750 or w/e?

I don't trust unknowns. Every time I make a "committing" 4bet like popping to $750 here, they smooth-call, the flop comes A-K-9, and I want to kill myself.

bingo i think flatting here is bad

Edit: That being allowing him to be able to flat us, its bad if he flats us obviously us flatting is terrible as wlel.

its meh, probably marginally plus ev, but you could curtail your variance and just fold

basically I don't see how the fact that he posted and it's his first hand affects the decision at all. he's playing a level lower than seen before, so he's not moving up to chase losses. he bought in full and the CO is a reasonable place for someone to post, so there's no reason to think he's been losing a bunch and is near busto and tilting.

also, if he's folding well over 60% of the time then it's probably profitable to shove 100% of our range here, but once we start shoving 100% people are going to adjust pretty rapidly and we get owned.

and the range given of 88+,AQ+ is 5.6% of starting hands. so if that's his calling range and he's calling less than 40% of the time, he must be threebetting over 14% of his range. That seems like a ridiculous assumption to make. (However, to be fair, I think that expecting him to raise/call AQ and 88 is just as ridiculous as expecting him to threebet 14%+ in the first place.)

Yeah, I like to spew against posters as well.
+ it gives you the chance to advertise your shoving range on 2+2