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NL 1/2 Facing overbet on ugly river vs whale NL 1/2 Facing overbet on ugly river vs whale

05-08-2014 , 03:47 PM
1/2 Game, $400 max buy in

Hero - ~$650 - accumulated a nice stack, playing somewhat laggy, raising limps a lot

Villain 1 - ~$250 Young vietnamese guy, passive preflop, likes to make a lot of probing type bets which aren't indicitive of strength

Villain 2 - ~$350 East Indian guy early 30s, open limps just about ATC pre even some large pairs like QQ/AK, calls pretty wide OTF, his larger bets have been shown down as value bets, mucked the winning hand when he had QTo vs Q5dd on a Q8857 board (he flashed his hand before mucking). Already been stacked once and rebought.

Hero is in CO with A5. 2 limps EP, Hero calls, V1 calls OTB, SB completes V2 check.
Normally Ive been raising in spots like this, decide to mix it up and limp.

Flop (Pot $10) 223

Checks around to V1 OTB who bets $5, SB fold, V2 calls, 2 folds. Hero raises to $25. V1 fold, V2 call.

Decided to raise when V1 made his probing bet. Figure he has nothing most of the time and just trying to steal, plus I have overs + sd + bdfd. When V2 calls he can literally have any pair or any draw, so I still am happy with this spot. Not surprised when he calls my raise.

Turn (Pot $65) 4

V2 check. I bet $60. V2 calls.
Obviously going for max value here, thinking he calls with all his flush draws, some of his SDs made pairs, etc.

River (Pot $185) A V2 shoves, for ~260 more. Hero?
NL 1/2 Facing overbet on ugly river vs whale Quote
05-08-2014 , 03:59 PM
Gross. I don't know. I don't think the probing beat = weakness tell is very reliable given his call on the flop and turn. I don't think this is ever aces up. Kind of seems like 3s full/4s full. Maybe A2.
NL 1/2 Facing overbet on ugly river vs whale Quote
05-08-2014 , 06:08 PM
What hand are you really scared of? Wouldn't something like 5x make sense here? Maybe A4?
NL 1/2 Facing overbet on ugly river vs whale Quote
05-08-2014 , 06:48 PM
My thinking is I'm getting 1.7:1 odds to call. There aren't a whole lot of hands in his possible range that I'm actually beating considering most of his big bets have been for value. I think hands that Im beating would include 2x, and maybe A4. Everything else I'm chopping or losing to. Not a big fan of those odds given the situation was my thinking.
NL 1/2 Facing overbet on ugly river vs whale Quote
05-08-2014 , 10:12 PM
I'm puke folding. Chopping at best isn't a great scenario. I think you are chopping a majority of the time but the % of the time you're not really comes into play because of the overbet.
NL 1/2 Facing overbet on ugly river vs whale Quote
05-08-2014 , 10:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
I'm puke folding. Chopping at best isn't a great scenario. I think you are chopping a majority of the time but the % of the time you're not really comes into play because of the overbet.
Very good point.

I think you are chopping here 80% + of the time.
And losing to a weird full house 20% of the time.

I just can't see V overplaying A4 type hands here as his hand doesn't change all that much from the turn to the river.
NL 1/2 Facing overbet on ugly river vs whale Quote
05-10-2014 , 05:23 AM
I guess we have to fold here to the river overbet, usually chopping or losing to boats.
NL 1/2 Facing overbet on ugly river vs whale Quote
05-10-2014 , 10:47 AM
One of the hardest things for me to truly internalize was that for the most part, villains at this level just don't have it in them to bluff shove OOP on busted draws.

Sure, there are a few gambloooors and ego-maniacs out there that do, but they telegraph pretty well and its obvious who they are.

When "normal" rec-fish type players shove river in this spot, it is never a bluff. Nor are they sophisticated enough to turn their two pair hands into bluffs on 4-to-a-straight paired boards.

So this is a chop probably 65% of the time, 30% of the time we lose to a nut straight or boat, and 5% of the time V is bluffing with a hand we beat.

so yeah, I puke fold here. I'm not putting in $260 "hoping" to get it back and chop a $185 pot. Essentially we are betting $260 "hoping" to win $90. basically 1:3 on our money which is the wrong way the odds are supposed to go
NL 1/2 Facing overbet on ugly river vs whale Quote

      
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