sitting at local casino 2-5nlhe
hero- 100bb
villain- 220bb
hero button w/ 56h
villain utg+2 w/ Ac7d

hero limps for $5. 4 callers behind before reaching hero on button. hero calls. small blind raises to $35. villain calls, one other calls and hero calls. four way pot.
flop 5c6c2c
small blind leads for $70 w/ 300 behind. villain flats. third player folds. hero left to make decision with top 2.
from past experience with both players left in the pot, i know i currently have the best hand with top 2 but am positive that villain has big club. small blind has overpair with decent club- most likely JJ or QQ. i also know that small blind is able to fold to a big raise in this spot because he is aware that his club draw is no good and that he is probably behind if i shove.
so the decision for me here is whether i should get it in ahead on the flop hoping my hand will hold or to flat the flop, shove turn if no club.

option 1- shove
i am 90% sure i have the best hand in this spot. the only hands that are possible out there that i am behind are a flopped flush or set. both of which are only held by the villain who limped/called preflop and flats flop. knowing small blind will fold to shove i can safely say shoving here will leave me heads up with villain and will more than likely just have to dodge club.
the upside; i get my stack in with best hand as 3-2 fav. villain can fold or can call getting less than 2-1 on a call.
the downside; knowing that villain will likely not fold i am putting my whole stack at risk hoping not to see a club with 2 streets to come.

option 2- flat shove turn
the upside; i can get away very easily if a club comes on turn. if a club doesn't come and small blind doesn't improve (make set) it will be checked around to me and i can now shove. small blind will fold and now villain is left with same decision only now he only has the river to improve. i am now a 4-1 fav and easier to win hand if i shove on turn due to increased fold equity.
the downside; this also allows the small blind to improve on the turn- make set, and now i am drawing dead.
if i shove turn and villain folds, what if brick was coming on riv? i have left $400 of equity in villains stack by not shoving w/ best hand on flop since he would've called shove on flop and i would've won hand at showdown.

so what is the best option here? is there one? are both plays equally valid? please let me know what you think and why.
also, please feel free to ask any questions about the hand. i don't know how to use hand history converter without actual hand history...if this is possible.

thank you.
may you all run good as long as we're not at the same table.

shoving is probably better but is also higher variance, if you have a solid bankroll then shoving flop is best IMO

Shove>Call>Fold.

If we "know" we have the best hand here then we are obviously never folding. If we call we may just take our self out of the pot on a club or straight card turn with a 1/5 of our stack invested. Looks like shove is the best option. Board ain't looking too good anyways. Get it in and if someone gotta flush draw live with them making a bad call.

option 1

theres plenty of overpairs + 1club hands that are going to bet the turn thinking they are good...theres also something like AcKs thats likely gonna bet turn as well...or even if Ac doesnt bet turn, its likely still ch/calling when you dont give a free card. since you are on button theres no risk of turn getting checked through; you can jam if checked to...so you might as well see a safe turn before sticking it in (you dont want the bottom card to pair either obv)
im pretty sure you are just flipping if you get it in on the flop vs an overpair + fd...and you might even be a slight dog since any board pair that doesnt fill you up screws you too

i would just call & jam turn since you arent really pushing an equity edge on the flop vs any overpair + fd

o wait...wtf how do you know what one of the villains has? i guess based on this exact positioning and the fact that you somehow know one of them has the bare NFD...it complicates things, im confused now, did you see the Ac7d at the end of the hand or during?

i really think if you shove flop you are getting called in both spots which is good for you rather than just getting called by sb & getting this better price for yourself is something only you could know if you saw the Ac7d in utg+2 hands somehow

if you shove on a brick turn sb (assuming overpair + club) still has 15 outs BUT he cant know that his outs are clean and he might fold (which you might want) & then you may only get called by utg+2...OR if sb calls with something like KKc or QQc then utg+2 very likely overcalls & you get an even better price

so long story short i still like, call then shove turn>shove flop

option 1 unless you think you'll run into sets often. option 2 does allow u to see 1 more round of betting and possibly change your mind about their ranges but other than that its a worse play IMO.

You really don't need high level light on this rather pedestrian question. Pot is $280. If you call it moves to $350 and you have $395 left with a hand that is highly vulnerable to being counterfeited. Easy shove.

The real mistake here is calling a raise with 65s, even on the button in what was a 4 way pot. How were you going to make any money if you missed and comfortable were you going to be if you had a flush and someone shoved against you

Fold to Raise PF / Raise it yourself

If you know that's what they have then shove flop.

I see no reason to get it in flop at 60/40 when you can wait till turn and get it in 80/20. Hardly any cards kill your action, which would be the biggest reason to shove flop instead of turn.

Do you have some power which will prevent a club or 2 from hitting on the flop so that you will have this opportunity to shove the turn instead? Yours may be a viable option, but citing these numbers to support your position is not valid.

If a villain has an overpair he has 2 more unknown outs. If a player with a FD + 2 over cards hits one of his overs, he then has 16 outs (9 clubs, 2 cards for trips, 3 cards for other over, 3 2s)... I don't know how to know when he's improved when I have to act first on the turn. Also, I really don't want to see a 3 or 4 either... I pretty much can't think of a single card on the turn that's going to give me a warm fuzzy feeling, other than a 6 or 5... which will certainly kill the action.


Shove it in there. You're ahead, give them the hard decisions. Picking up the pot here is a good thing. Getting it in first when ahead 51-60% or so is fine also.

i know enough money is in the pot to justify shoving in this spot no problem... although i feel the ONLY time you're going to get called is when you're drawing to 6 outs (at best)

i really dont understand why so many people are so happy to get this in...yea we are beating the guy with Ac7x but the other guy is first to decide whether to call or not if we shove. if he calls with an overpair + club we are a 48/52 DOG...I know its not that much of a dog, but:
1) we always know what cards to get away from on the turn, clubs & 2's, so we rarely get it in bad if we see a safe turn & we dont need to really worry about "what if he hits a set on the turn" if you are worried about 4% coming on the turn then stop playing poker & go buy gov't bonds
2)we dont lose action on cards that improve us, nobody with an overpair+fd is shutting down on a 6 or 5 so we dont even need to worry about that little consideration
3)and most importantly, our equity goes either WAY up or WAY down on the turn & its pretty clear cut where we stand
4)we are on the button so we never have to worry about turn getting checked though

the flop jam is only good vs the Ac7d hand but slightly bad if we think we are gonna get snapped off by an overpair + fd like KcKd
5)we should expect the overpair to JAM the turn into the NFD on a brick and then we get to comfortably call with great equity

That's is not true, its still good @ 48% equity. But I can certainly see the merit of letting a blank come off. Over-pair plus club is betting turn anyway and wil lbe committed vs you. Also you can fold for cheap if you see a club or a 2 ott. Betting is usually better in NLHE because it gives you some FE value but in this case you don't want that anyway, so I like a call and see turn here tbh.

Also fold preflop.

Just because something is +EV doesn't make it good. We are discussing whether to make 1 +EV play or another. IMO calling flop & getting it in on good turns or getting away as cheap as possible on bad turns is more +EV than the slight +EV of getting it in on flops. I don't feel like crunching the math but on first instinct I can't see the overlay of $ in the pot when we get it in @ 48% being able to make up the difference for how much more equity we have on the turn.

Shoving flop is only good if we think many over pairs without FD call us. Otherwise waiting for a safe turn is better. A 2 or a diamond comes on the turn 1/4 of the time. We can give up easily. 3/4 of the time we can get it in against a wider range with better equity. I think overvapirs still call us on a safe turn if they would call on the flop. Call flop, shove safe turns.

Agree that calling raise preflop this shallow was a mistake.

First, I think the flat of 65s on the button is totally fine if the raise is to 25 at 35 it is more questionable. General rule of thumb is you need 20x effective stacks to call with SCs which you lack here. This was a really intersting spot, so I took out Pokerstove and Excel and went to town.

Ugh did a whole lot of math and my login timed out and since I'm on my phone the post was lost. If I get real internet ill try again. In the end, shoving now was slightly more profitable than waiting for a blank turn, but there's lots of math and assumptions that were lost.