Hi guys,

A loose live game at the cas.. 2-5

UTG raise to 25 playing a stack of 1200- reads are his oldish fairly tight but over values hands
Cut off calls playing a stack of 2000 - his fairly spewy bluffs his missed draws and also very aggro , can hand read to a degree
Hero is in the bb with 86hh i opt to complete .

Flop is 755hh, initial agg cbets 50/75 cut off calls. I raise 225 (not sure if this is a key mistake in the hand?), gun snap calls now cut off back raises to 575. I call and gun snap calls.

Turn is a 9, it gets checked around

River is a 6, my analysis on the hand is that gun has OP or big fd and cut off has 5x and is concerned i have a book. I picked up a live read on his check back on the turn however i could be wrong.

Thoughts on how to play every street ?

The outcome was i shoved gun snaps and cut off tank calls 65cc

what's your stack size? I'm usually folding preflop- saving speculative hands for when I have position.

Once you flop the monster draw, I probably just shove flop after the back raise. (again, your stack size might affect this). This lets you see the turn and river cards and realize your full equity.

Sorry forgot to mention im playing 1240 so 248bb deep

Don't post results it will effect what people think
Anyway on to the hand
I don't mind the preflop call give the stack sizes we are playing super deep which is great for this type of hand.
You flop a big draw BUT as it is a pair board can have massive rio here.
The pfr cbets and bu flats and then you raise,I could get on board a raise if it wasn't a paired board but we could be drawing very thin so think a call might be a bit better.
I do like the raise sizing but after the bu reraises it just screams boat,while it is very cheap too see another card, it is probably best to fold as will most likely face a shove for less than PSB on the turn.
OR calls as well which is good for us as we get more value from our hand IF we hit.
On the turn IF I called to hit then i am shoving here 100% as the pot is that big there is no point trying to trap or get fancy.
After it gets checked around and the river peels off I am most likely going to check/call a lot of the time here as I don't think will get worst to call or better to fold.
Shoving is just plain bad imo as I doubt even an OP will call this on such a wet board.
Overall I think you made 2 big mistakes
1. Calling the 4b on the flop
2. Shoving the river

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Bump appreciate more analysis

I don't see how you can avoid getting it in on the flop. What else are you hoping for with this hand? I mean I might not if the villains were super tight and would only call with a 5 or pocket 7's. I like your raise size on the flop I assume its about the same size you'd do with a set. One mistake I've seen players make is they reraise all in with a huge stack when they would never do that with a set. It sucks when you raise and you get reraised, but I think your had has so many outs against just about everything you have to go with it.

Pre seems fine.

OTF, I don't mind the raise. Putting a lot of pressure on overcards for the PFR and better flush draws, as well as 7x and weak overpairs. If the initial raise was $50, Sizing seems fine. If the initial raise was $75, I'd have raised to more like $300.

Once you're reraised on flop, this is a shove/fold decision. You're basically flipping with an overpair, and have 43% equity against A5. Of course, you're drawing dead against a boat. Your read is that CO is bluffy, but his line (calling then re-raising flop) is almost never a bluff.

When facing the reraise, if I've done the math right, we have about $1000 and the pot is $1100. If we shove it will be $650 for CO to call. So if called, we've put $1000 in to win $1750, so need about 36% equity to be good. I think we have that given our reads, so I shove. Maybe I bluff CO off of an overpair or Axhh once in a while, and if he calls unless he has exactly 77 or 75 (which is a real risk) I've gotten good odds anyway. I don't think you have much FE, but don't really need it and any little amount is a bonus. Ideally UTG decides to come along for the ride too, which improves our odds to draw.

As played, you have to shove turn once you bink. You have less than a 1/2-PSB left and there are a ton of cards on the river that are either scare cards or give you a second best hand.

CO would very very rarely have overpair here

Ok time to analyze with combinations of possible hands and with some logic.

Preflop playing 250bb deep. Calling 4bb more with 86hh is a must. WP.

FLOP 755hh.
UTG cbets 50- His range is all random hands cbet bluffing, 7x, most pocket pairs including overpairs, FD, A5s, 77, 55.
CO calls 50- His range can be anything from straight draw, T9 for nut gutter, flush draw, 5x, full house, 7x suited, overpair 88-JJ.

Now you have 86hh, two options, raise or call. I like taking an aggressive option of semi-bluff raising because its hard to hit a 755hh board, you have enormous equity and you block random 56, 87 combos that can call. Sure, cold calling is correct too.

HERO raises to 225
UTG snap calls 225- His range is now a higher FD than you KQhh, AXhh etc, 88-AA and 77 or 55 for full house or quads (4combos total)

CO makes a small flop 3bet to 575
CO range - Eliminate all bluffs, semi bluffs, 7x or overpairs because they wouldn't take this line of cold calling, then 3betting the flop raise to this size.
Now he has about 12 combos of possible hands.
2 combos each of: 56s, A5s and 45s = 6 combos of 5x which we are drawing 43% to.
AND 2 combos of 75s, 3 combos of 77, 1 of combo 55 = 6 combos of FullHouse or better that we are drawing to 8% against. (lets just say dead)

So 50% of the combos that he clicked back at us we are drawing dead to, and the other half we are 43% against. IN ADDITION to the fact that there's a small possibility that UTG has us drawing dead or has a higher flush draw.

Sure you can say, why would a full house or quads 3bet our raise here? Well, he is giving both players a very good price to draw, when they are drawing dead, so why not raise to get more money in.
I don't think its fair to range his flop 3bet on a naked 5x only because raising so small with 5x, leaves their hand vulnerable to all the draws out there. Not saying the villain played the hand well but I think its equally possible that villain has all 12 combos (of 5x or FH and better) in their range and we can't just discount the FH+Quad combos.

SO, given that 50% of the time we are drawing dead, I say nice hand and just fold my draw here.
Live poker becomes easier when you can range villains correctly.

I like the analysis pretty straight forward thinking.
One point to add is we are never drawing dead as we do have 2 out for the straight flush but don't like the odds chasing that here

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2 outs IS drawing dead.

Fold pre.
Smooth flop. If we jam flop, we're betting a parlay (1) on our draw and (2) against the redraw. We can make a much better decision on the next street.

AP, checking the turn is like WTF.

"If you want to be happy for the rest of your life, never make a pretty woman your wife."

You need to snap shove turn the moment you make your hand checking is a complete disaster. I like the cr on the flop and the flat of reraise but I am insta jamming turn

bump thanks for the insight guys , anyone else got something to say?

Bump

I think it's a crime not to shove the turn. The 9x is your miracle card. Somebody with trip 5s would have to put you on the 1 combo you have that makes it worth a c/r to $225 OTF & calling $350 more OTF.

You have enough $$$ left OTT, to price out someone with trip 5s. There's $1300 in the pot & you have $625 left. If 1st player fold, CO is getting ~3:1 on his money & is a 4:1 dog to win/tie. That's ~21% with ~7% to the tie.

The sweet thing is: You want them to call & it's too close [sometimes] for someone who can do the math, to lay it down. It's a miracle for someone who doesn't realize how much of a money dog they are to ever lay it down.

Even if the opener had AK & got all caught up in the betting OTF & he calls your all in OTT & the CO calls, you still have ~65.5% equity, splitting the pot 7% of the time.

I think the 9x OTT was a dream come true that needed to be realized by shoving.

Versus opponents preflop ranges and give that you have .much more 5X in your range how would you feel about leading flop?

Thanks guys , i think i've plugged this leak