ES: I've got ~$360 [BI -$220] and both Vs have me covered.

H: Only hands worth mentioning: I've won 2 pots in which I was semi-bluffing against 1/2 Vs. Made a pot size raise & they folded. Won 1 decent size pot with a legit hand. Been there ~1hr 45 minutes.

V1: On my immediate left is str8 forward player. Have not seen him get out of line, nor can I remember him showing a hand when he won what few pots he did. Think nobody called him on the river.

V2: On my immediate right, is the BB & can be a loose cannon. Even though he's up $300, he doesn't seem interested in protecting it through solid play. I think his stone cold bluffs & then showing it after everyone folds, gives him one helluva' an adrenaline rush. He must do this about twice every 45 minutes or so.

So, I open UTG with AJ for a baker's dozen [$13.00] Vs & SB call.

Flop [P - $35; ES- $347] 975
I've got 2 overs, b/d flush draw & a player on my right who thinks he's Tom Cruise in Top Gun. He bets $20. I call V2 calls.

Turn [P - $93; ES - $327] 975 [J]

V1 bets $35. I raise $125 on top. V2 folds........back to Top Gun to decide.

thoughts on the raise?

Kind of hard for me to rep T8s since I opened for $13.00, but I'm trying for that or a set of Js in the event he flopped 2pr.

Wait, is V1 Top Gun, or is V2 Top Gun? Seems like you reversed them.

Assuming we're up against the loose cannon... I dunno, this is a very high variance play.

+That is a weak-ass turn bet. He's betting 33% pot. There's an outside chance that he's betting small with the straight and is hoping to keep you guys in and/or induce a raise. More likely he has a hand like 109 or A9 and is trying to "set the price" with this bet.
+Your raise ensures V1/player on your left will fold anything weaker than two pair.

-Your line doesn't make a lot of sense. 10-8 usually isn't raising preflop. JJ usually is raising the flop. All sets are raising that flop, and J9/J7/J5 usually aren't raising preflop. Your hand looks more like overcards that picked up the backdoor nut flush draw than anything else.
-V1/player on your left could have two pair+, or the straight. (Happy birthday to him, he turned the nuts and people have already bet and raised in front of him!)
-V2 has bet into the pfr on the flop, then bet into two people on the turn. The bet sizing is wimpy, but the bet itself is strong.
-V2 likes to play like a hero. If he decides you're bluffing, he might jam here and put you to a very difficult decision with a very vulnerable hand.

I would've folded the flop. You've got backdoor flush and backdoor straight draws, but your overcards are dirty and you don't get to close the action. That's a leak.

Now that you've made it to the turn, it's a decision whether to ride the variance train or not...

Villain will fold everything you beat and will call (or shove) with any hand that beats you. You should have just called and evaluated based on what villain did on the river. Your'e also not deep enough to get 2 pair to fold if that's really what you were trying to do.

So you hit your over card and your trying to rep 2P or a set of Js.... So why on earth would anything worse than 2P call your raise? Your thinking makes zero sense.

You should have just flatted the raise and played a small pot.

I think I would have raised the flop donk bet before I would have raised the turn. The turn raise is more expensive and building a big pot when you could be in a situation with little to no equity. If this is for value villian would have to make a mistake and call getting insufficient odds. Otherwise your just going to fold out worse hands or get called by better.

So, I found this formula from Dusty Schmidt & decided to use it to see how good/bad my raise was. I am going to do this here, without knowing the final result, so it wasn't preplanned.

[p * s] + [e * f * (p + o)] > b * f

[p * s] = the % of time the bluff is successful. To determine this, I 1st need to know what hands he may hold that he'd bet with.

Well, he'd definitely bet with a flopped str8, so 86 = 16 hands.
He'll bet with T8 for the nut str8 draw = 16 hands
He'll bet with 2 pair, so 97 = 9 hands; 95 = 9 hands; 75 = 9 hands.
He'll bet with A9 = 12 hands

Then there are the 3 sets on the flop * 3 ea = 9 hands - However, I really don't think someone would bet that light on the turn after flopping a set. So I am going to discard those.

Then there's 64 for a str8 draw he didn't hit = 16 hands.

So, how many hands is he NEVER folding:
the nut str8 = 16 hands

Hands he'll fold some of the time:
He'll fold: 97 25% of the time; 95 50% & 75 75% of the time.

He'll fold A9 100% of the time.

So, there are a total of 71 hands he may hold.

T8 never folds & is 16/71 = 22.5% of the holdings

Each of the 2pr [9hands ea.] rep 12.7% of the holdings, so:
.127 * .25 = 3.175%
.127 * .5 = 6.35%
.127 * .75 = 9.52%

For a total of 19.04% of the time he holds 2 pr & folds. Which is also the % of time he calls, since I divided it equally.

He'll fold A9 [12 hands] & 64 [16 hands] 100% of the time
28/71 = 39.43% of the time.

So, he's going to fold 58.47% of the time.

[p * s] = $128.00 * .5847 = $74.84

The flopped str8 & turned str8 rep 45% of the hands he may hold & he NEVER folds, so I lose: $160 * .45 = $72.00

Finally, on the times that he calls with 2 pr, I'll suck out 5/39 = 12.89% of the time.

So, since I divided up equally the % of times he calls/folds with 2 pair, he also calls 19.04% * 12.89% I suck out = 2.45% reps the % of time he calls with 2 pair [of the 71 hands] & I suck out.

So, now I win $253 * .0245 = 6.19 for a total +EV of $81.03 & a -EV of $72.00.

Way too close for comfort. Especially since I didn't count those times he may spaz & re-raise all-in with top 2 pair etc. OR, maybe he did play a set that way.

Therefore, I won't be making this move anymore. Especially since there was another player in the hand.