2/5 NL Horseshoe Hammond

Villain - Old (East) Indian Man who has been at the table for less than 25 minutes.

Relevant History: On his first hand he 3-bet a$35 raise all in with his $300 stack. Original raiser open folded JJ and villain showed AK suited.

A few hands later, hero limped in with AA in early position, Villain raised to $75 (with $15 in the pot at this point), another player in between called and Hero shoved for $300. Hero won the full pot and villain showed KK (UTG had 99). He was felted.

The VERY NEXT hand:
Pot was at $17 due to a $10 straddle
Hero - $890 stack picks up AK and raises to $40, folds around villain
Villain ($300 behind) - bumps it to $200. He doesn't even have chips in front of him since the chip runner was still fetching them

Pot ($97 + $160) and Hero's decision is to call $160 or raise to $260 and put villain all in pre-flop.

I felt that his range was weighted towards AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK and stove says:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.806% 27.76% 15.05% 12834291 6955696.50 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 57.194% 42.15% 15.05% 19486524 6955696.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

So the pot is laying me about 1.3:1 assuming that I push and he calls.

Am I thinking about this correctly or am I not taking important relevant factors into account?

I'm still having trouble understanding this particular concept: If the pot is laying me 1.3:1 and I have a 43% chance of winning/tieing. When I convert 43% to odds format, I get 1.3:1.

Is the above calculation correct? Am I leaving out any relevant factors?

If the calculation is correct then it would be wrong to call or put him all in. Therefore the fold is correct.

Tilt factor? Perhaps he could 3B with AQ or TT here as well.

Why do you think you can just call here? If you do will you check fold any flop you miss? If so that's really bad. This is an easy shove. The range you give him is way too tight considering he's probably tilting due to the AA vs KK cooler and the fact you're only 30bb effective. Though you can discount the latter a bit because lots of guys don't adjust to straddles well.

Btw don't limp-back raise AA with 60bb. It is just so horrible and folds out tons of hands that you're crushing. Woo the guy had KK, big deal, you would have gotten it in anyway. He folds 95% of the time here and you miss out on mega value. When you do this and they all fold, ask yourself if it mattered if you had AA or 72o. In other words why are you wasting a premium hand?

The guy has shipped with AK, which means JJ+ AK is the tightest possible range he could have. Against his tightest possible range it is a very marginally correct fold. Against any wider range, you are shipping it. Are you really that confident he wouldnt 3B TT or AQ?

Just stick it in, he is on tilt

I must have not written clearly. I don't think I can just call. I did all the calculations as if I put him all in. So when he raised to 200 all day, I'm considering that he just went all in for 300.

Also this is a 2/5 game and he started with $300 with me covering so we're actually 60 BB (not 30).

I agree with your "don't limp-back raise AA with 60bb.". I should just raise from early position with AA but I felt as if almost every pot was being raised for the last hour allowing me to reraise.

Thats great, but when you limp/RR with AA you might as well turn your cards face up before putting the 3 bet in.

to YOU my cards are face up but are they to the my opponents on this particular table and even if they are will they do anything about it? Here's what happened in detail with that hand.

UTG called, I considered raising but just called as almost every pot had been raised. UTG whispered to me "you looked like you wanted to raise, you must have a big hand." Button with the KK hand raised to $75, UTG Called and I quickly shipped $325. Button called without a second thought and UTG said "F it, let's gamble".

UTG had seen me fold every hand almost for the last hour and told me BEFORE I did the reraise all in that he thought I had a big hand.

I completely agree that I butchered that AA hand and the result was fortunate for me. But still the opponents I had on that particular 2/5 table had NO fear of the limp-reraise.

I actually put him on AA, hence why he raised to $200 instead of $300.

I agree with this and that was actually my first thought when I saw the 3bet size. We know he shoves with AK, so this looks like a monster pair. Of course it could be QQ, but even still we're flipping at best and crushed at worst.

Personally, I don't like getting into PF pissing matches although I will if I have to. Here, I would let it go based on his raise size.

Fold

Sure, a guy who just got coolered is likely to have AA on the next hand when he sticks 30bb in pre. Even more likely considering we have an A.

Exactly

Actually, I don't think you butchered that AA hand. It's not a bad play at all under the right circumstances and it sounds like you chose the right situation. If you think the table's raising a ton, this is a good spot to trap.

Also, when you're 60 BB behind, you'll get looked up light when you limp/shove. People will think you have a small PP that's looking to gamble before they think you have AA.

In a vacuum, raising is the best play. But if you feel certain raises are coming behind if you limp, then there's nothing wrong with your play.

I don't think so necessarily cause
1) Most of the opponents suck at hand reading / don't actually realize it's AA (even though obvious to competent players)
2) more important: there was a cold call. Players suspect the light squeeze WAY more often than it actually happens

If it was guaranteed to be heads up, I would just flat for sure though.

I find limp/raising with JJ is a solid play from early position. Instead of raising and getting 4 callers (assuming the table is generally loose passive), you get to build a pot and likely see it heads up or see no flop at all. Sometimes it gets limped around and you lose value, but I think the dead money you get from the times everyone folds to the raise makes up for it.

Thoughts on this play? Does anybody do this with AK? I don't but am curious to know..

Never folding. He can be wider 30bb effective. Calling can never be bad given our equity agst even the tightest of ranges

He shoved $300 over $35 raise with AK, raised to $75 in an unopened pot with KK, and after he just lost a hand, he re-raised $40 to $200 with $100 behind?

Duh, AA.

Is this a level? If not pls stop, you're embarrassing yourself.

My initial thought is that he can have TT+ and AQo+ here a lot. Then I asked myself what he would do with those hands. Wouldn't he just shove all in based on his previous plays? The two hands before he shoved with AK and then made a huge raise, leaving himself chips behind with KK. Based on that information right there, I would read his hand as a big pair.

I personally am not a big fan of shoving AK preflop. I rather see a flop and make a hand with it. That might be wrong, but it works for me.

Sounds like you can find a better pot than this. I would fold.

LOL, this is obviously a pointless spot to discuss and you obviously think there's some sort of magical formula that would invoke some sort of discussion.

Who cares, nothing much to discuss in this spot anyway.

2 pages of should I call with AKs when the guy puts in 2/3rd's of his stack in pre.

The answer to the op is obvious.

insta ship... his range is way wider here and I would say its more skewed towards pairs like TT-QQ here just due to the size of the raise. even without taking that into account its a ship. his range here is probably including TT and AQ.

I'm sorry, I just have trouble agreeing with your range here.

We have half an hour of history with this guy, we've just felted him, his new chips haven't even arrived at the table yet and we've raised again next hand.

My money is that if he looks down and sees....99+, any two suited broadways, any suited Ace, even his favourite cards (normally 10 2 cos Doyle likes em), he's raising here.

Of course he could turn up with AA here, but AKss kills his range.


Shove

Much more likely to have TT-QQ/AK since bad players have no idea how to play those hands post flop and they are "scared of overcards flopping" lol. I wouldn't expect KK+ to raise that much because he would want to keep you in.

What you do should depend on your roll, etc. If you are underrolled or don't want uneeded variance then just fold. Shipping it in isn't bad either.