Yeah, I am repping a range that people should read as combo draws, sets and overpairs, say 88-TT for sure, maybe JJ. In addition to the fact than 60% of his range is air (which makes this play +EV with 0 FE) we do pick up FE against his (few) weak made hands where he recognizes that there are too many scare cards that can come.

In general, it's not a good idea to rep sets when you are bluffing because it is hard for people to read you for a set, and people know it is hard to hit sets. My guess is that I did this in two of these 3 hands, this is at least in part why Digger objects to my play in these hands.

I was less worried about that guideline in these hands than I would be online, because I was in against players who wouldn't necessarily try to put me on a range, but, instead, would look at their cards and say, "I don't want to play a big pot with this hand."

The reason Digger's objections are all perfectly reasonable is because he is following and applying the general rules for bluffing, whereas I identified all of these spots as exploitable enough to depart from the general rules.

I forgot to address this last time.

Interesting thought about not showing bluffs against women. I confess that had not occurred to me.

Not sure it applies in this case, as I showed mainly to mess with the three guys in the corner that were telling her she made a good lay down. I'm pretty sure they got that point.

It was an interesting scenario at the table. the reason everybody assumed that I had a monster was because I had been card dead the whole session, and had only been in about 5 or 6 pots in about 3.5 hours.

Having been card dead, I was hoping that I'd catch a small rush of hands I could get value from fairly immediately after showing the bluff.

Had I been active at the table up to that point, I definitely would not have showed.

I'm not defending showing. It definitely seemed like a good idea at the time, but you have half convinced me it was a mistake.

Ahhhh someone has been listening to Mr. Tri Nguyen

?

you are stating the some of the concepts from "let there be range"

this Tri Nguyen?

Nope. This one http://dailyvariance.com/about/.

No - never read him.

I have not either ($1850 for a book ). But he just did a multipart interview with Bart, figured you heard that.

i love how it's half off and it's still $1k

Just a quick update:

The last week and a half has been brutal. In the last 9 days, call it 45 hours of play, call it 1500 hands or so, I am down $1200, all at 1/2.

Running bad doesn't even describe it. Just to give an indication of how bad it has been without sounding like a cry baby telling bad beat stories: my online game these days is about a 16/13 style (VPIP/PFR). My best estimate for my time in vegas is that I am trying to play about 20/12 and that I am actually playing about 7/2 or so. When I translate in my head 7/2 into hands per orbit, it comes out to one hand per every orbit and a half or so, and I honestly don't think I am playing a hand that often.

Needless to say, it is irritating the crap out of me, and I have decided to extend my stay in Vegas until, as I said to my wife, "I am down too much to recover in a short period of time, or I am back above break even."

ATM I am down $400 for the trip.

Insofar as analysis is concerned, I don't really have anything new. The games have been super soft, and I am playing as well as I have ever played. The adjustments I have made to the live game have been theoretically +EV, in the sense that I keep getting my money in ahead in hands where I am adjusting to the live play.

In addition, the extra pots I am playing by limping behind hands I would usually fold online for fear of a raise behind me are showing a small profit that is off-setting the bad beats and coolers that I am taking.

I'm not sure what my plan is for this thread at this point. I can't talk about my time at the tables recently without making it sound like a BBV thread, and I think I have made all the adjustments I am going to make.

I think I will just let the thread lie here until I am ready to leave Vegas, and then do a wrap-up/summary post right at the end of my time here.

I'll answer questions, but probably won't post again until I am ready to leave.

Please keep posting, this is a very interesting thread to us all.

It took me a long time to adjust to live poker, it's almost a different game from internet play.

Welcome to live pokers, where you play so few hands per hour that an extended period of "run bad" hopefully not compounded by "play bad as a result" can really "ruin" your month.

I think you should keep posting too, hands, situations, etc. While I have a great deal of confidence in your pure poker skills, and I also know you are going to run into situations that are going to be foreign to you in a live setting. Some of us old hands at this might save you a BI or two during the journey.

I glad to see you have found a reasonable process to make the move. I had not really considered you buying multiple properties, but in your situation of planning to stay there long term and assuming the market does eventually recover to some percentage of it former glory, its a sound plan. Best of luck!

Edit to add:

If you haven't ran across Cactus Jack yet, you might want to send him a PM. He could provide a good resource, not too mention he is a good guy.

Like Perc said post some hands. Lets see if we can tell if there are more adjustments that you are missing.

On a side note........... I know I know you dont need to make a trillion dollars but what you are going through is a very good reason to play 2/5. The profit is so much greater that it makes up for the dry times. When your dry in 1/2 you scrape by.

I gutta say there is no crushing the 1/2. To me that would mean taking the game for more than its worth and it ain't worth much just like a10c 25c online cash game. Its only profitable from thursday night-sat night toward the early hours of sunday. Playing online or tournaments, or some omaha split early in the week is the way to go. Also table selection is very important and you must be ready for many bad beats. Try to stick with tables 21-25 at the venetian. There is your loosest action. As far as bad beats, in a 1/2 they have a huge affect on your over all winnings. Lots of these Loosy Goosies will shove with good/premium hands out of nowhere. They only pay attention to their cards and to nothing else. Even if you have kings against his ace king and your sure your a 3 or a 4 to 1 favorite, all the small wins youve grinded out will be erased if he hits his ace. And it will have a huge impact on your profits in the long run. Remember that you will always have a chance to win consistently in live 1/2 and you are giving up alot if you dont lay down your primos in those instances. Alot of the time they play soo bad your aces will only turn into one pair by the river. So if your especially running bad remember what i said when your looking to limp raise UTG those primo hands in early position against a maniac on the button (for instance). This will save you lots of money.
Bet sizing has a lot to do with it. Most of these "tourists" will always stick around in a hand ONLY because its feasible. More pressure like a min of 5 blinds or more will often work to isolate your limpers.
One last thing, appear weak when your strong and strong when your weak. These guys think everything has to do with tells. they like to push thinking internet players around. -Luca

how does this work?

Where else would you sit if you were a tourist visiting one of the top 3 poker rooms in the country? In the back? Those are the first 5 tables your clocking rite when you walk in.

I also recommend picking up harringtons book on cash games 2 there is a very informative section "beating weak games" with lots of hand examples.

I actually forgot about this thread for a while but just remembered it and read through what I missed.

In LV $1200 is what, 4-6 buy-ins at 1/2 or 1/3? Not all that bad a downswing tbh(Well until you consider the wins I guess, which I don't totally remember where you were but that's a few clicks away I suppose). People come from online and say "ZOMG you're a donkey if you lose more than $500 at 1/3 NL" but obviously that isn't the case(if it ever was).

I really have to go back to the point of thinking... Is 1/3 really a game you can profit in? In L.A. after sitting a while I have to say I'm almost sure it isn't. I'd set to prove it but I'm no masochist. Thousands of hours at 1/2? No thanks.

In LV I'm inclined to say the same, or that the rake will affect you to greatly. Sure, the max buy-in is bigger, but how much are the fish really buying in for? The only "pros" I've met in L.A. at the low games are ones waiting on higher games, or social security checks.

I'd like to see you keep posting as well though. There's been great analysis in this thread and since it's your thread, if you stop posting hands there won't be any discussion of hands or strategy and the thread will basically die.

On a side note, I have lots of family in LV. I'm not sure what your friends are saying about the real estate climate, but I'd have to echo the advice of others and avoid buying/investing in any properties there with the hopes of renting them out, unless you're happy renting to party goers during NYE or NBA All-Star Break type events. There are lots of vacant houses sitting around and very low rent prices. A friend pays the same for a 4 bedroom 2 story house that I pay for an apartment here in L.A.

This question was answered already sorta but wanted to respond and give my thoughts.

YES, there's a meaningful difference in rake below 5-10. As pig said, well he wasn't sure, but yes, the rake is pretty much the same but it's taken on every single flop in L.A. and it drives me bonkers but what ya gonna do?

Imagine in a typical live passive pre-flop game how many pots are limped or 1 raiser and 1 or 2(or even 3-4!) callers and don't reach $40. Plus the $1 jackpot which I sat for once for $300+ and have played way more than 3,000 hands(maybe I'll lose during one soon). So yeah, at 5-10+ it's negligible but lower I'd say it's meaningful enough.

On average I'd say the play is tougher in Vegas below 5-10 in general depending on where you play.

IP is obv soft but how many games run? Same with a few other places. LA just has way more games. I think Commerce alone has more tables than like half the Strip at those limits. Add the Bike, Hustler, HP, and others and it's a no brainer.

Just a few points--I'm not arguing, just discussing.

yeah, in the last 9 sessions I am down 6 or 7 buy ins, whatever it was. 6 or 7 buy ins is not a bad downswing; online, I am in the middle of an 80k hand swing in which I am down -40+ buy ins in all in EV, down ~25 BIs overall.

BUT: 6 or 7 buy ins in only 1500 hands is BRUTAL variance. I am 95% sure that in 2mm hands of online poker, I have never lost that much in that few hands, although I know I have come close once or twice. So it rates as one of, if not the STEEPEST swings I have ever had, even though, yes, online, i have multiple 5-6 BI d'swings in any given full month of play.

As for whether 1/2 and 1/3 in Vegas are beatable for a living wage. As I said at the outset of this thread, this will depend on your definition of a living wage. here in vegas, housing costs are low, and it doesn't take a lot of money to get by. I could easily live here on 30k/yr. I mean, obviously you're just getting by at 30k/yr, but the point is, here, you CAN get by on 30k.

So the question is whether 1/2 and 1/3 are beatable for 30k/yr or so. That works out to $20/hr if you grind 1500 hours/yr, or $15/hr at 2000 hours a year.

From what i have seen, these games are beatable for something in the neighborhood, if not exactly that much. So I would say that depending on your circumstances, you can make an entry level or retirement level income in the 1/2 and 1/3 games.

Clearly, if you are going pro, you will have to do two things when you start:

1. Live cheap or carry a big roll. If you need all your winnings to live on, you can't grow your roll. So what you would have to do is to live really cheaply, or get here with enough money aside from your roll that you could devote a fraction of your winnings to growing your roll.

2. Move up to 2/5 asap.

If this is your plan (it is more or less mine, although I will not be playing live as my sole source of income--I have online and coaching income, too), I think you can make it work. But if you get here on a short roll with just enough money to live on and a minimal roll for the game, you're going to have to live more cheaply than I can in order to be able to add some of your profits to your roll so you can eventually move up.

But with those qualifications, my answer is 100% yes, you can make a living at 1/2 in vegas.

Here's a hand I played last night: What do you guys do?

1/2 at the Venetian:

Villain 1 is a regular, but he has all of the leaks associated with inexperience--he stacks off light, over values top pair in general, stuff like that. He is mostly playing his cards, and not really adjusting based on who he is playing them against. This is my second night playing against him. He's a Tag, but an inexperienced tag.

Villain 2 is your standard loose passive tourist who didn't come to vegas to fold, dammit. He'll see the flop with anything he thinks is reasonable, and he will call c-bets with any piece of the board.

Effective stacks are 65bb. Hero is the shortest stack, having chipped down through a few raises and failed c-bets. I haven't shown down anything. Unfortunately, i got dealt this hand as I was pulling money out of my wallet to rebuy.

Villain 1 is in the HJ. It folds to him, he raises to $11. Villain 2, in the CO, calls. Hero is OTB with 6h5h. I called (yes, I know this is questionable given my stack size)

Flop (`$30): Jc 7d 4h.

Villain 1 bets $25, villain 2 calls. hero has $119 behind. Hero????

Here is another hand I played last night--it is another "mpethy makes fun of himself," hand.

UTG with KQo. Standard fold online, but this table is super loose passive, and I am confident I can limp it here without usually getting raised.

My image is nitty, as I have been card dead. I showed a bluff earlier in the evening so people would know I was capable of making moves, rather than just sitting there waiting for aces.

So I limp UTG, and 8347 people limp behind. Well, maybe it was only 4 others. BB checks.

Flop: (~$12) Kc 8c 4d

BB checks, I bet $12, folds to the button who calls, BB folds.

Villain OTB: is the table loud mouth. he keeps trying to call people's cards after the hand, and he is wrong 100% of the time, and usually not even in the ballpark. That said, he is mostly trying to play TAg; he is usually betting and raising, not calling. His stack is at 70bb, I cover.

Turn (~$35): 2d

I bet $30, button calls.

River (~$95): 3h

I check for the purpose of inducing him to bet his busted club flush draws.

Villain turbo ships in his hand before I have even finished tapping my fingers on the felt. I mean, he got that money in the middle in haste!

This sets me back on my heels. I expected a smaller bet, not a (slight) overbet shove. And I expected some thinking. But, nope, turbo ship.

So I tank for 30 or 40 seconds, elect to fold, and villain flips up Jc7c for the successful bluff.

Gotta get better at reading these live tells.

Amusingly, after the hand, the villain continued his streak of misreading hands; when i folded, and as he was showing his bluff, he said, "yeah, I KNEW you were on the same draw I was on!"

River

I like that fold in the last one. I think 75% of the time villian has K4sooted and flopped two pair they were never folding anyways. Your read on the flush draw was excellent.

Calls and ships most turns, but its close as to rather you just ship it now or wait for the turn when you likely will have more FE because of the poor perceived strength of your hand.

People like the villain in this hand "the table expert/captain/jerk" tend to overbet their bluffs and underbet their value. These types will plan out their action, he was likely thinking if he missed his draw, he was pushing the river every time, i.e. the turbo ship OTR.

This is less "live tells" it is more recognizing situations, tendencies and patterns. In future you will remember this type of player and be less likely to be bluffed off the best hand.

Bottom line it was a close one as described, call or fold.