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mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread

08-31-2010 , 01:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 8o8
would the coach sweating you simply be him sitting behind you at the table? can you keep showing him your cards? (i can't remember if my local room allows that). that would be kindof ridiculous
Nah, it's easy for someone sitting behind you to see your cards. Even if they're standing if you lift them up a little more than usual.
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
08-31-2010 , 02:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pig4bill
Does CAZ let you carry in the casino? The last time I was there I don't remember seeing that it was posted.
No guns on the res at all, including the casino. Major jail time for carrying on Indian lands in AZ. I have never seen them make a stink about reasonable knifes though. Basically if it fits in your pocket, they ignore it, but gawd forbid you try and bring a backpack in there, you are in for a complete search.
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
08-31-2010 , 06:25 PM
Percula, other than scary-prison-tats guy, how have you handled the others you've experienced? Do you always just say nothing, or.....?
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
08-31-2010 , 06:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stir
Percula, other than scary-prison-tats guy, how have you handled the others you've experienced? Do you always just say nothing, or.....?
I always try to be none confrontational, nice, professional if you will. I have very little faith in the truth of the sob stories. Even if I believed them, I am not helping someone with a addiction by giving their money back. They will just lose it somewhere else or to someone else. If anything I am helping them by enforcing the consequences of their actions. Sometimes people need to hit bottom hard before they wake up and deal with their problems.

I am rarely such a cold SOB that I say something nasty or be mean about it. Generally something along the lines of...

"Sorry, I can't do that. I need the money to pay my bills too."

Rarely would I say something like... "Well if you couldn't afford to lose, then you shouldn't have been playing". But have in one instance, where the "villain" had a habit of always doing this, it was like third or fourth time I had heard him beg so I did say that.

While I will say that in general my experiences playing poker have been largely on the positive or very positive side, there can be a dark side to this "world". You have to grow a fairly tough skin at times. At the end of the day, the people you are interacting with are adults and are free to make choices for the good or the bad.

I used to teach womens self defense in conjunction with a womens self help center. One of the things that took a long time for me to come to terms with was, people make their own choices, and until they are truly ready to make the hard choices to make those positive changes in their life, there is nothing you can do to help them. It would just kill me to see some of these women come to class with black eyes, bruised ribs, necks, wrests, etc knowing it was only going to get worse before it got better. I try to apply the same mind set to degens in the card room, there is nothing I can say or do that will help that person change until they are truly ready to change.
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
08-31-2010 , 07:24 PM
mpethy, wheres the next installment?!
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-01-2010 , 01:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pig4bill
But your home is not in Vegas, right? So you're going to have a housing cost there, unless you can tow your home to Vegas.



It sounds like most of your pots have been fairly small? Have you seen many bigger pots, like over $500 at 1/2 or 1/3?
Housing cost yes, mortgage no. Our plan is to pay cash for a house if we move out here. Keeps the monthly nut down.

We could be talked out of this if the right house came along outside of our pay cash pprice range, but certainly we will be looking to put 50% down. As a practical matter, something like 50% will be req'd by the bank, since neither of us will be able to show a "job," in Vegas. That's IF any bank would touch us. We may be forced to pay cash; but since that is our plan, anyway, we are cool with it.

As for your second question: as of my last post, I had not played many big pots, and I had not had a hand where I had played for stacks at $500.

That changed Sunday night, or, as I like to refer to it, "The day of doom."

LOL, really, in the grand scheme of things, it was no big deal. But Sunday came l l close to being my worst losing day ever.

KurtSF was playing the mixed game at the IP, so I headed to the Bellagio to check out the 2/5 games there. I took a seat and started observing the opposition.

What I saw was an array of good players. I don't think any of them were as good as your average $100 online reg, but your average $100 online reg would not have had a big edge against any of the solid players at my table. If I were seated at that table online; I would leave it--there's easier money to be made.

Consistent with my determination to scope out the level of the competition at the expense of maximizing my WR for the trip, I stayed at this table and stuck it out.

The 7 and 8 seats were the two guys I was worried most about--they both played a reasonably solid LAg style and both were deep stacked. It soon became apparent that seat 8 was not only solid, but he was on the heater of his life. i was at the table for three hours, and in that three hours he went from having a 300bb stack to like a 900bb stack by a combination of getting his money in good and holding, winning flips, and sucking out to have the nuts against second nut hands before the river. It was an amazing thing to see. he just busted player after player. Don't get me wrong--I saw only a few hands i thought were misplayed by him; he was solid--but, jesus, what a heater he was on.

So I am at the table for about 40 minutes or an hour. During this time seat 8 is playing maybe 25 to 30% of his hands--raising most, but not all of them, first in. He was limping behind a decent amount, but only open limped once or twice.

He raises UTG and gets a caller, and I am on the button with T8, so I call.

$60-ish on the pot.

Flop: J99

UTG checks, MP caller checks, I bet $40; UTG check/raises me to $120 total.

I run the odds in my head and I think, "even if he is on trip 9s I have like 45% equity. He should have some air in his check/raising range, and i will get some folds from AA, KK, QQ type hands that he erroneously check/raised."

So i figure I have about 50% equity against his range, there's $200-ish in the pot, and I go, "eff it," and shove.

He tanked. I mean, like 3 minutes. Then he called, showed 9 8 and held.

I still kinda like my shove. His c/r was strong, but it is not always JJ or a 9, I think.

So I rebuy.

Whole lotta nothing for maybe two hours, except that the table has been joined by a live one who is throwing a huge party. I have seen this guy raise all in with T4 on a KT6 rainbow board, seen him call down third pair for 60bb stacks repeatedly, and i saw him check/shove KJ on a Kxx board, losing all of these hands.

Of course, I have been card dead for the last two hours since the T8s hand. I have set mined one or two hands and missed, Raised with AK and won the blinds, and that may be all the playable hands i had in those two hours.

The live one is on his 7th or 8th $300bb stack when this hand comes along, but he has chipped up to about $400. I have him covered by about $50:

I get dealt AA. Raise to $20, fish calls, solid regs in 7 and 8 call me.

$80-ish in the pot.

Flop: KT9 rainbow.

I lead for $60, expecting the live one to call and intending to fold to a raise from either seat 7 or seat 8. Fish min-raises me, seats 7 and 8 fold out, and I turbo ship. Fish calls me with bottom two, and i don't suck out.

To be honest, i am not sure I like the shove. On the one hand i had seen him get all in on similar boards with way less. On the other hand, the board really sucked for AA, and i knew I was bet/folding against the regs, and that in a 4 way pot somebody has frequently gotten there on AA. So there are pros and cons to this shove.

I am not prepared to defend it, nor am i prepared to criticize it. I honestly don't know whether I should have shoved or not.

So at the conclusion of that hand I am down $950. It is my worst day of poer ever. i have never lost $1000 in a day. On the other hand, it is two buy-ins, and losing two buy ins is oh-so-standard.

Nevertheless, I don't mind telling you, I was shell shocked. Moreover, according to the rules I had set myself for playing on other people's money, I had to sit out of 2/5 and start grinding it all back up. Those hands took me from up $1080 to up $130 on my vegas trip--ouch.

About this time KurtSF texts me saying he is done, and we meet at the Bellagio, where he has a good laugh at my shell-shocked appearance. We talk it through for a while, and then we decide to go to the Aria to sit in the 1/3 game there.

We played there a few hours and I won about $400, so I managed to do some good climbing back out of the hole that i had dug at the Bellagio.

That's the trip report for my most recent session. I have played three interesting hands where i held top pair or an overpair and played them way faster than I would have online. This is one of the significant adjustments I have made, and i think it is working out well. I'm planning a post on these hands, but I have fallen behind on a lot of my work and don't know when i will be able to do it.

Last edited by mpethybridge; 09-01-2010 at 01:14 AM.
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-01-2010 , 02:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
100 bb effective stacks
Folded to me in the hijack and I have A9

I bet $7

button calls, everybody else folds.

The button is a 50-ish woman who seems solid but prone to chasing draws.

Flop (~$17): A 4 4

I bet $11, button calls.

Turn: (~$39) 7

I bet $25, button calls.

River: (~$89) 2

I check thinking check/fold. Button bets $25. I was planning to fold, but when I saw the $25 bet into ~$89 I thought, "Oh, ok, she has an ace and my check made her think I don't, so she is just putting out something I might call with an underpair to the ace. She's fishy enough to value bet a crappy ace here, so I'll call."

I call and the button shows AK and ships the pot for three streets of value against the hot shot internet pro. NH, ma'am.

Day 2 to follow. Please comment on anything that struck your interest.
I know this may sound like i'm saying this post-results, but river is a fold imo. Pot odds aside - 50 yr women at the venetian never value bet worse here or bluff in this spot. This is my reasoning:

I find that river value betting ranges are much narrower in live games than online.

I also find that opponents in 1/2 games are more likely to flat AK than to 3-bet it.

Other than that, great thread mpethy!

PS - If your thinking about becoming a live pro (at the 2/5 level +), I think game selection is by far the most important thing. In vegas, there aren't many 2/5 - 5/10 tables to choose from - why not choose the best ones?
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-01-2010 , 02:47 AM
As for the AA hand - you are never not stacking off to the fish - but I guess calling down may be better unless you expect him to call with Kx or JT or QT.
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-01-2010 , 03:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Percula
No guns on the res at all, including the casino. Major jail time for carrying on Indian lands in AZ. I have never seen them make a stink about reasonable knifes though. Basically if it fits in your pocket, they ignore it, but gawd forbid you try and bring a backpack in there, you are in for a complete search.
That's good to know. The bad thing is that it's pretty hard to tell when you've crossed onto reservation land. There are seldom signs on the roadways. Especially when a "reservation" is sometimes just a hunk of land that happens to have been bought by a tribe, so it could be anywhere.
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-01-2010 , 03:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
Housing cost yes, mortgage no. Our plan is to pay cash for a house if we move out here. Keeps the monthly nut down.

We could be talked out of this if the right house came along outside of our pay cash pprice range, but certainly we will be looking to put 50% down. As a practical matter, something like 50% will be req'd by the bank, since neither of us will be able to show a "job," in Vegas. That's IF any bank would touch us. We may be forced to pay cash; but since that is our plan, anyway, we are cool with it.
I think you should survey the local situation and strongly consider renting for awhile. From everything I've heard, nice house rentals are available for a good price. Plus, as low as house prices seem to be now, they are still somewhat higher than they were ten years ago, with room to fall further. I think that for the next 1 to 2 years there's a good chance the economy will really go down the crapper, and that will clobber Vegas, and house prices in turn. You might easily lose a year's poker winnings by buying now instead of later.

Quote:
As for your second question: as of my last post, I had not played many big pots, and I had not had a hand where I had played for stacks at $500.

That changed Sunday night, or, as I like to refer to it, "The day of doom."
Ugh, that sucks. Have you tried the Wynn 1/3? It's probably changed since they capped it, but it used to play like 1/3 but with 2/5 pot sizes.

You might also want to check out the TI freeroll promo. Besides the big prize pool in the freeroll, the room might have lots of jackpot-type grinders.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/27...promos-865170/
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-01-2010 , 04:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
So at the conclusion of that hand I am down $950. It is my worst day of poer ever. i have never lost $1000 in a day. On the other hand, it is two buy-ins, and losing two buy ins is oh-so-standard.

Nevertheless, I don't mind telling you, I was shell shocked. Moreover, according to the rules I had set myself for playing on other people's money, I had to sit out of 2/5 and start grinding it all back up. Those hands took me from up $1080 to up $130 on my vegas trip--ouch.
Welcome to live pokers!

Its a big adjustment for a OL player that is disciplined. Trust me you can player near perfect poker in a live setting and lose more than two BIs. Dropping a grand in 2/5 should not phase you at all once you get adjusted.
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-01-2010 , 04:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by flip2win
I know this may sound like i'm saying this post-results, but river is a fold imo. Pot odds aside - 50 yr women at the venetian never value bet worse here or bluff in this spot. This is my reasoning:

I find that river value betting ranges are much narrower in live games than online.

I also find that opponents in 1/2 games are more likely to flat AK than to 3-bet it.

Other than that, great thread mpethy!

PS - If your thinking about becoming a live pro (at the 2/5 level +), I think game selection is by far the most important thing. In vegas, there aren't many 2/5 - 5/10 tables to choose from - why not choose the best ones?
I agree with you on the A9 hand, of course--I posted it to poke a little fun at myself.

Your point about people live flatting AK way more than they do online is a good one I have been planning to make in this thread. I see people doing it over and over, and I think the reason is pretty clear: 100bb deep, 4 betting ranges are KK and AA. Flatting AK seems defensible to me under those conditions, though if you can fold out everything up to JJ, then maybe it would be a 3 bet fold? I haven't run the numbers of that yet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pig4bill
I think you should survey the local situation and strongly consider renting for awhile. From everything I've heard, nice house rentals are available for a good price. Plus, as low as house prices seem to be now, they are still somewhat higher than they were ten years ago, with room to fall further. I think that for the next 1 to 2 years there's a good chance the economy will really go down the crapper, and that will clobber Vegas, and house prices in turn. You might easily lose a year's poker winnings by buying now instead of later.



Ugh, that sucks. Have you tried the Wynn 1/3? It's probably changed since they capped it, but it used to play like 1/3 but with 2/5 pot sizes.

You might also want to check out the TI freeroll promo. Besides the big prize pool in the freeroll, the room might have lots of jackpot-type grinders.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/27...promos-865170/
If you had moved as many times in your life as my wife and I have moved, then you would not be so quick to talk about moving to vegas with the plan of moving again within Vegas!!!

We are sick of it, and I plan for this place to be my last. Plus, rentals always cost more than buying a comparable house. The only thing renting does for us is by some time to scope things out--that's not nothing, but my goal is definitely to buy a place, not rent. I don't think for a novice like me there is any way to perfectly time the Las Vegas real estate market, so trying to pick the bottom seems futile to me.

I haven't played the Wynn 1/3 game yet; it is definitely on the agenda.

I am pretty excited about the 1/3 games. they seem every bit as soft as the 1/2 games, and, in some cases, softer. But the pots play a bit bigger so your hourly should be higher. They seem like a good way to grind low stakes for a living. It's less of a jump for when you move to 2/5, too.

The real appeal of 1/3 is that it seems to be a guaranteed 25% increase on your 1/2 earnings. This could get you to 2/5 that much faster.

If I lived here I'd give up on 1/2, I think, and focus my attention on going from 1/3 to 2/5.
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-01-2010 , 05:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
As for your second question: as of my last post, I had not played many big pots, and I had not had a hand where I had played for stacks at $500.

That changed Sunday night, or, as I like to refer to it, "The day of doom."

LOL, really, in the grand scheme of things, it was no big deal. But Sunday came l l close to being my worst losing day ever.

So at the conclusion of that hand I am down $950. It is my worst day of poer ever. i have never lost $1000 in a day. On the other hand, it is two buy-ins, and losing two buy ins is oh-so-standard.

Nevertheless, I don't mind telling you, I was shell shocked. Moreover, according to the rules I had set myself for playing on other people's money, I had to sit out of 2/5 and start grinding it all back up. Those hands took me from up $1080 to up $130 on my vegas trip--ouch.
I am not beating a dead horse or trying to bring one of the biggest arguments of micro's back to life, but this is why I wanted to see 2/5 either moved to medium-stakes forums or live poker having its own poker forum. I have no doubt that many 10NL grinders could play in a 2/5 game and be ok in it, but could they really handle a swing of $1000? 2 buy ins to them is $20, to us its 50x that. Poker is supposed to be poker but look at what it did to you, someone who plays 100 and 200NL online. I would like to see you go play some 10/20 and let us know your thoughts on that. Its said time and time again that 100 and 200NL grinders would fit in fine there, but I think it would take a big adjustment. Maybe if you get a chance you'll take a shot and give us your opinion on it?

Also on this topic, when you said its the biggest loss you've ever taken I was really suprised. I thought at 100 and 200NL you would come across this regularly. At least I "swing" like this. Of course thats why I am probably way horrible at online.
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-01-2010 , 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
If you had moved as many times in your life as my wife and I have moved, then you would not be so quick to talk about moving to vegas with the plan of moving again within Vegas!!!

We are sick of it, and I plan for this place to be my last. Plus, rentals always cost more than buying a comparable house. The only thing renting does for us is by some time to scope things out--that's not nothing, but my goal is definitely to buy a place, not rent. I don't think for a novice like me there is any way to perfectly time the Las Vegas real estate market, so trying to pick the bottom seems futile to me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pig4bill
I think you should survey the local situation and strongly consider renting for awhile. From everything I've heard, nice house rentals are available for a good price. Plus, as low as house prices seem to be now, they are still somewhat higher than they were ten years ago, with room to fall further. I think that for the next 1 to 2 years there's a good chance the economy will really go down the crapper, and that will clobber Vegas, and house prices in turn. You might easily lose a year's poker winnings by buying now instead of later.
I would take this guy's advice to heart, even if you're tired of moving. Of course no one can pick the housing market's bottom. But what knowledgable real estate people will (sometimes grudgingly) affirm is that 1 year from now prices will not be higher than today. They may be the same, they may be lower(my guess), but they will not be higher. So IMO waiting is a no brainer.
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-01-2010 , 05:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
If you had moved as many times in your life as my wife and I have moved, then you would not be so quick to talk about moving to vegas with the plan of moving again within Vegas!!!

We are sick of it, and I plan for this place to be my last. Plus, rentals always cost more than buying a comparable house. The only thing renting does for us is by some time to scope things out--that's not nothing, but my goal is definitely to buy a place, not rent. I don't think for a novice like me there is any way to perfectly time the Las Vegas real estate market, so trying to pick the bottom seems futile to me.
Take your time, find a cheap place to stay (assuming you move) until you figure out where and what you want. The market is not going to radically change in the next 12 months. Its a renters/buyers market right now. Do your research, take your time.

Some things to think about living in a desert area... Flooding and storms. LV is infamous for localized flooding, and like any desert area subject to monsoon flows it will get pounded with T-storms regularly during the summer/fall months. What looks like a killer house in a killer area on a sunny day in November may well look like a lake a few days a year. Also look at your choke points for driving, the last thing you want is to get stuck in or out of your home because the only road in/out gets flooded every time it rains.

Look for an area that has underground utilities, less likely to get knocked out during a storm. Termites are a big issue in the desert areas too. Make sure you get a solid inspection. The clay soils also tend to be somewhat of a problem, lots and lots of cracked slabs/foundations. Oh and Internet, Cox cable is the big provider in LV, but you might want a business class service because of your coaching, business class service is not always available in a residential area, call them with any prospective addresses to check availability, they tend to be very helpful in the business department.
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-01-2010 , 05:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AcePlayerDeluxe
I would like to see you go play some 10/20 and let us know your thoughts on that. Its said time and time again that 100 and 200NL grinders would fit in fine there, but I think it would take a big adjustment. Maybe if you get a chance you'll take a shot and give us your opinion on it?

Also on this topic, when you said its the biggest loss you've ever taken I was really suprised. I thought at 100 and 200NL you would come across this regularly. At least I "swing" like this. Of course thats why I am probably way horrible at online.
I think this is a good idea too, even if you just fold for a couple of hours. Getting a look at the B 10/20 or the V 10/20 games will help give you a idea of the total landscape. Maybe sit a couple of the V or B 5/10 games too. Think of it this way... Sooner or later you will want to move up, while you maybe able to grind out a small nut in 1/2-1/3 its going to take up a lot of your time. Less time at 2/5 but still a lot of hours, but at 5/10+ you could significantly reduce the required hours, giving you more time to coach, or just spend time with the family.
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-01-2010 , 07:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by crsseyed
I would take this guy's advice to heart, even if you're tired of moving. Of course no one can pick the housing market's bottom. But what knowledgable real estate people will (sometimes grudgingly) affirm is that 1 year from now prices will not be higher than today. They may be the same, they may be lower(my guess), but they will not be higher. So IMO waiting is a no brainer.
Yes please listen here and think this through before you make a decision. My wife and I purchased our first house a year ago because we wanted to buy while the market was low and not "throw money away" renting when we could be building equity. Although it sounds logical, this was an uneducated and poor decision.

The home is now worth much less than we bought it for and we are trapped here for probably at least 5 years before we can even hope to break even. We blindly followed conventional wisdom on this and it bit us in the ass. We would be out much less money continuing to rent.

At least try to work out how much you will pay in rent vs. an equal amount of house depreciation that might occur in a year to see at what point you break even. If you are truly planning on staying really long term I guess you should be fine no matter what, but at least think about it a bit.
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-02-2010 , 01:08 AM
Great thread, thank you for sharing. Keep the updates coming!
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-02-2010 , 03:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
I agree with you on the A9 hand, of course--I posted it to poke a little fun at myself.

Your point about people live flatting AK way more than they do online is a good one I have been planning to make in this thread. I see people doing it over and over, and I think the reason is pretty clear: 100bb deep, 4 betting ranges are KK and AA. Flatting AK seems defensible to me under those conditions, though if you can fold out everything up to JJ, then maybe it would be a 3 bet fold? I haven't run the numbers of that yet.

The A9 - not a big deal - I guess I should've read it more carefully lol. As for the AK situation, I agree with your logic. I also think that live players tend to see AK as a drawing hand (which it kind of is to an extent) and would rather see flops and then commit chips rather than building pots preflop.

I guess against most live relatively passive opponents - AK can be a 3-bet/fold. Seems so dirty imo, but obv we can't stack off to KK+ (with standard 3-bet sizing). I also see a tendency in a lot of live players to call 3-bets fairly frequently - 75%+. Due to deep stacks and even with short stacks, I doubt u get any pair to fold IP and OOP - since set-mining is a live poker fetish. Though players a bit more saavy these days, I still see plenty of players calling with marginal hands OOP/IP just to "crack those AA and KK". However, I also observe that most live players are fairly straightforward in 3-bet pots. This is probably the best part of playing live. 3-bet and c-bet.

Anyways - hope you have good luck in Vegas. If you become a reg at the Venetian or Wynn - I'll probably be playing a lot at the 2/5 - 5/10 games there after i finish school. TBH - I feel that as a coach/winning reg at 100NL and 200NL - you should have a sizable edge in 5/10 games and crush 2/5.

Look forward to more hands
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-02-2010 , 06:34 AM
Played a short session tonight at the 1/3 games at the Aria. Dropped a buy in. It was a whole lotta the same card dead stuff that I have been dealing with since I got here. Was down to 60bb in my stack and ran the nut flush into quads.

Nothing really interesting happened. This thread is in danger of becoming a BBV thread, because every hand I play is pretty standard, and I just keep losing stacks.

____________________

To address some of the comments about the 2/5 session at the Bellagio.

yeah, that day was almost my worst day ever. I've had plenty of sessions at $200 online where I was down in that neighborhood, and managed to grind my way back. It's never fun, but it is manageable.


To the guy that said something about poker being poker and 2/5 not belonging in micros because the amount of money is big--meh. Poker IS poker--that is why I was able to make the plays I made in those hands that cost me the stacks. At the time I made each play, I believed it was the best play available, and I made it, regardless of the amount of money that was in play.

Sure, it hurts a lot more to lose to stacks that add up to $1000 than it does to lose two stacks that add up to $20 (just to use the online level you used). Everybody would feel that way. But if the amount of money affects your decisions, you are playing too high. Having it sting afterward is completely different. But pain goes away, and if you understand that, and are adequately rolled, you just make your play and then you deal with it. Your point would be far more valid if I had, for example, folded the open ended straight flush draw because I was reluctant to put a stack of $500 in on a draw.

_______________________

On another subject:

I guess you live players take it for granted, but the difference in the quality of play between the weekends and the weekdays is absolutely astounding. During the week the games are way tougher than they are during the weekend. It's like you move up stakes from Sunday to Wednesday and Thursday through Saturday you move down.

In fact, that sounds like a sound strategy to follow if you are, for example, new to 2/5. Play that on the weekends and play 1/3 during the week.

The game I was in tonight played way more passively preflop than I am used to seeing. But the quality of the post flop play was significantly better than the quality of the preflop play. I am beginning to conclude that most of these players at 1/3 and 1/2 are well-aware that they are splashing around and playing a friendly game that they are not taking altogether seriously.

I played this hand tonight at 1/3, which was an eye opener only because of what happened afterward.

UTG raises first in to $8, his standard raise. folded to me on the cutoff, I flat with AQ Button, the table calling station, calls, big blind calls.

$32 ish in the pot.

Flop: K J 7

UTG leads for $20. I raise to $60. Button calls. Button has a 70bb stack, I have 90bb, UTG covers, but folds to the raise.

Turn: J

I know the button is a passive player, and that he will call a bet and that he will check a weak king behind. I have seen him calling down with second or third pair, so I am pretty sure I have no FE here, so I check. he checks behind.

River is the 7

I check, button shoves, I fold.

Standard hand, more or less.

Small blind, who had folded preflop, looks at me and says "AT or AQ?"

Uh, I hate to break it to the online crowd, but nobody at NL $10 or $25 that I have ever coached calls my hand that quickly and that accurately.

I had this guy pegged as a loose passive player--he was, preflop, but clearly his hand reading skills are superior to his preflop game.

I'm not sure that this qualifies as an adjustment from online to live. I have actually been telling a lot of NL $50 and NL $100 players that the average fish in hose games knows he is splashing around and only starts to take the game seriously post flop when the pot starts to grow, and that their post flop skills are far superior to what their preflop stats would indicate.

This also seems to be very true for the players in the live games. A lot of them are there to have fun, and solid preflop poker is not fun. So they splash around a lot preflop and then get serious once they are in the hand.

Don't get me wrong--I am not saying that they are excellent poker players. I have not seen a single player yet who didn't seem exploitable. My point is that of you watch the way they play preflop, you think, "OMG, this guy doesn't have a clue," but when you watch them play post flop you realize that they actually have some skill.

That said, i played this hand Sunday night at the Aria 1/3 game:

I am UTG with a 90bb stack and QQ. I raise to $10.

MP2 calls me. Flop comes down 422 rainbow. I pot it, he calls. Turn is an 8. I pot it and he shoves in his stack, which is my bet plus about 15bb or so. I call, of course, and he shows TT. I hold and he says, "Oh, I didn't put you on a hand that strong. I thought if I lost it would be to trip deuces."

LOL, really? Please tell me, good sir, what deuces are in my UTG raising range.

So, yeah, they are definitely not all solid. This guy would have been massacred at NL $10, most likely.

So there is definitely a wide variation in the skill levels at these lowest stakes games in the casinos.

_________________________

Last subject for this update. I won't be playing any 10/20. I doubt, at this point, that i will be playing any 5/10. My rule for this trip is that i would play on other people's money if I was playing above 1/2. Between the session at the Bellagio and tonight, I am now up just a bit under $300 for the trip.

To find my way back to 2/5 I will have to win another $200 and change. To find my way to 5/10 I will have to find another $800, minimum. I am running REALLY bad, so, unless things turn around dramatically, I don't see 5/10 happening. I'll be pretty disappointed if that turns out to be the case, because that was the game I was looking forward to playing. I was pretty sure when I came out here that I have an edge in the 2/5 games, and now I am sure of it. I really wanted to play some 5/10 and see what it is like.

OK, that's it for tonight.
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-02-2010 , 11:13 AM
Great thread, I'm having a lot of fun reading it!

on that read, as your average break-even / slight winner at 1/2, trying to progress, i say this sounds very standard, no soul-searching there. That's the thing about live play: against a pool of at least 50% of people who open limp 89s and overvalue top pair, your average good (but not great) player will call much more liberally and put opponents, try to win big pots because there is just a lot of value in flopping bottom 2 and random crap. I think more than looking at players' stats, it 's putting them into larger categories, i.e. do i more try to bluff this guy or value-town this guy.

You were probably pegged as a nit/more bluffable player. No offence, but a 40 something guy with a poney tale that plays fewer pots than anybody does not look anything like somebody who played as many hands online as you have! Especially in Vegas!

So the guy reads you as rocky, way more likely to raise with monsters than top pair weak kicker. With that type of simple-simplistic read, if you raise the pre-flop EP raiser, you look like you have a monster. But then you give up, so it just can't be anything else than AQ-AT hearts.

Adjust to these 1st level thinking player and bluff them, they will show everybody that they fold an overpair to your agressions!

my 2 cents... GL!
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-02-2010 , 11:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
____________________

To address some of the comments about the 2/5 session at the Bellagio.

yeah, that day was almost my worst day ever. I've had plenty of sessions at $200 online where I was down in that neighborhood, and managed to grind my way back. It's never fun, but it is manageable.


To the guy that said something about poker being poker and 2/5 not belonging in micros because the amount of money is big--meh. Poker IS poker--that is why I was able to make the plays I made in those hands that cost me the stacks. At the time I made each play, I believed it was the best play available, and I made it, regardless of the amount of money that was in play.

Sure, it hurts a lot more to lose to stacks that add up to $1000 than it does to lose two stacks that add up to $20 (just to use the online level you used). Everybody would feel that way. But if the amount of money affects your decisions, you are playing too high. Having it sting afterward is completely different. But pain goes away, and if you understand that, and are adequately rolled, you just make your play and then you deal with it. Your point would be far more valid if I had, for example, folded the open ended straight flush draw because I was reluctant to put a stack of $500 in on a draw.

_______________________
The thing is when you're playing 2/5 for a lot of money you all of sudden have a different dynamic because losing 4BI's could affect your entire week or month. Yes we should be properly rolled, but how many people do you think that play 1/2 2/5 are actually rolled for the game? Some have close to their entire rolls on the table and a loss is going to kill them. If you lose 4BI at 5NL you're out $20 and you reload some other time because $20 doesnt affect you all that much. The point I was trying to make is that dynamic is different because of monetary value. We know as 2p2 readers that we should be properly rolled to play a certain stake etc etc, but not everyone that we play with reads 2p2 (luckily), therefor the money does affect their reasoning and the way they play hands. I think this is one of the adjustments that online players fail to make when they go live, hence the reason I feel that some of the decisions they would make in a hand are not the same decisions I would make.

Like I said I dont want to start a debate about forums or w/e, but rather discuss the adjustment of monetary value. I think this is huge and something that small stakes online guys dont get. We consider 2/5 the small/micro stakes of live and it is compared to 5 and 10NL online, the problem is there are people who make a living playing 2/5 and I have not heard of anyone doing so playing 10NL. When you start adding those guys who are paying rent with poker into the game the dynamic changes.

Would like to hear some comments about this.
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-02-2010 , 11:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
So there is definitely a wide variation in the skill levels at these lowest stakes games in the casinos.
I'm also guessing the skill level differs quite differently depending on what type of casino you are in, such as typical small town local casino (which is usually inhabited by regulars) vs tourist town casino destination (which I imagine would attract a lot of newbs).

I play in a local casino and the 1/3 table is made up of 99% regulars / semi-regulars; only once and a blue moon will a clueless newb walk in off the street. Early in the evening there'll probably be 3 or 4 tables going, but by the end the survivors will usually be whittled down to 1 or 2 tables, so not a lot of table selecting to be done here. As well, the 2/5 doesn't always run (if it does it's only ever 1 table) which again means the games aren't nearly as great as always made out. Your experience may vary.

That's not to say that all the regulars are solid, they definitely are not. One of the biggest mistakes I see regularly are people playing shortstacked and calling large raises preflop. And some of the bet sizing, especially on the turn (i.e. "same bet") can be interesting. And some still overvalue one pair hands. And some turn medium showdownable hands into river bluffs. And this is why I'm assuming the game is beatable.

Having said that, they aren't the total clueless level 0 non-thinking droolers that some (including on this forum) would have you believe. I've yet to play against a regular who isn't also thinking about what his opponent could have; no regular is just "playing their cards" without at the very least giving a thought as to what is opponent is doing. Last night a tightish old guy raised preflop and was 3bet. Stacks were deepish, say $600. He called and folded KK on a 7 high flop. Not saying that's good or bad or whatever; just saying, he's obviously not just "playing his cards".

Goldman'sreadwasright,btwG
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-02-2010 , 12:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DiggertheDog
Just repeating what Limon says - it was bike games but pretty sure that was his implication - that 5/10 games arent that good and there are not many people paying there way with high rakes and bad games.

It might just be 5/10 bike regs are bad in his opinion.

So not my view just - passing on what I know of a very experienced live pro with Limons rep.
I know limon. I will let him speak for himself if we wants, but I don't think he's played 5/10 for a while. He almost always plays in the 10/20 or 20/40. We have mutual acquaintances that make their living playing 5/10 but not playing at the bike. I have heard from others that those games have taken a steep dive since the last time I played there, which has been a while because I hate driving that far just to play poker, when I have 3-4 cardrooms that are closer and juicier. FWIW where I play the 5/10 isn't that good and doesn't even run consisntently, but 2/5 and 5/5 are off the hook most nights. Daytime not as good but still beatable for sure. One could definitely make a living playing in those games but I prefer having a real job with health & dental insurance and don't want to be stuck in a casino every night with a bunch of degenerates.
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote
09-02-2010 , 01:37 PM
So I have a couple of questions on this thread that don't seem to be answered. I'm purely a recreational player (live and online) who also happens to be going on a 12 hour poker bender tomorrow night down in AC, and this thread definitely refreshed me onto what live play is like (its been about a month for my last live game) vs. online, but it doesn't seem like we answered any real questions. I've been beating .10NL online pretty handily in my spare time lately, and I've found it actually MOST profitable to be playing against the "TAGnit" regulars. I'm probably the rarity that searches for the 6% seeing flop table with a bunch of 12/8/5 reg's. (I also don't use a HUD and play 1 table at a time, so I don't know for sure, but I am pretty good at getting a feel for the table really quickly - probably my live skills kicking in online).

Anyway point is this I'm still struggling to find the right mix in live play. I can and have played enough online to develop a solid winning strategy (not TAG either, but I won't give up my secrets ), but definitely have not played enough live to be able to quiet figure out the best approach... and probably won't for at least another couple years of live play, at the rate I typically play. So I'd like to figure out the best way to approach the following live tendencies to be maximum +EV... everyone below assumed a 1/2NL live game.

1) Pre-flop lots of limpers from any position. Can't isolate and most 3-bets/really large raises are probably QQ+, possible KK+.

How to play here? basically join the limp train and use post-flop skills? is there any better line other than marginally raising for value with any top 15% hand and limping any other playable hands? Where do you draw the line with playable SC's/1 gappers and any two suited? ie. online I generally draw the line at 6-8s (won't play 5-7s) and K high suits when im prospecting, but does it make sense to make it anything live? Also, how do you play AA or KK without basically giving away your hand? Limping AA seems like the worst possible move, but I've definitely taken a multi-limped pot, popped it to $25 and everyone folds and gotten called out on AA directly. Crappy $10 win, and if I limp it its def hidden, but then it will get cracked a ton. And a marginal raise to say... $10 still gets 3-4 callers and makes it just feel worse when I get the 8-9-10 2 suits flop....

2) post-flop bet sizing. people think in terms of actual dollars rather than pot odds.

What is everyone's general thoughts as to what becomes "expensive" and can actually push someone off a pot? $10-15 bets seem to get called a TON with crap (seems like spew to me, but they hit a lot and get paid)... but $25 gets people thinking from my experience. Usually only a good hand will call/raise (which is good to know they have something), but again if we are in a hand with 5 others, I hate seeing that with K-J on a J-6-3 2 suited board. What could they have? really anything since they all limp with just about anything anyway! And I hate spewing chips when I dont have a clue what they have and my hand is marginal. And even worse is betting pot on a $10 multi-way limped pot. you ALWAYS get called with total garbage and then what? your pumping a pot with TPGK and no hopes against any kind of a draw and tons of cards scare you.

Answers: And maybe this whole post is me thinking out-loud here and I just need to write it down. But the one realllly good session I had I essentially ran real good, played top 30% or so of hands from any position, slow-played my monsters and just bet into any TPGK or better and essentially got paid left and right. but is that all it is? It just seems way too annoying to sit there and try to "match the board" like other people mentioned, it doesn't seem the way to maximize your winnings in anyway and totally reliant on getting some good cards (ie subject to a ton of variance and not really poker)

If just about everyone playing 1/2 is essentially on level 1 (in this case beign playing their cards, with a marginal thought about their opponents) shouldn't we be able to go to level 2 and essentially "play the board" with air or close to air? I just feel like a huge leak of mine is when I get stuck with TPGK or TPTK, face heavy $50 bet action into a $70 pot and fold it... simply because the turn brought a scare card (when most of the deck was a scare card anyway). This happens so much and it makes me wonder if I should turn the tables and try to use the scare cards against other people, and I just keep thinking that SOMETIMES they HAVE to have nothing. Maybe this is why everyone overvalues TPTK, because they are playing sheriff. And if I was to play the board against someone, I definitely get the feeling that long-term its a loser strategy since they DO overvalue 2nd pair+, I'll get called down with crap in a huge pot on a total bluff.

So whats the answer? I almost feel like playing super passive limping/calling everything, check/calling any good pair (pot control) and just thin value-betting monsters is the way to go, but it just seems so passive that I'd feel like a total fish, knowing the way everything is taught in anythign you read from online to books...



Anyway, sorry for the tl;dr wall of text. If anyone has any thoughts I'd appreciate a discussion. Just seems like we got a lot of "this is how live plays" but not a lot of "here's how you counter/beat it"
mpethy's Live Poker Trip Report and Analysis Thread Quote

      
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