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Monotone Board with Bottom Set Facing river xr Monotone Board with Bottom Set Facing river xr

05-17-2024 , 08:32 AM
Table Dynamics - 1/2 Thursday night, local room, H knows most of the players at the table besides two V's. V in this hand is a mide 50s white guy who I have no history with. He has been playing super tight. Has the chips lined up, has a nut as a card protector, opens very big (18-22) when he does open, he has also seat changed 2 times in the 4 hours or so I was there. He's been so tight that even the two known OMC in the table has mentioned it.

H should have an aggro, competent image, maybe a little bit on the looser side.

One prior HH of note. H opened to 12 in LP with QQ, 4 total to a flop V included plus another V who was very very tight all night. Flop was K77, x,x,x H bets 25, both V's call. K779, x,x,x - River K7795 V2x, V1 bets 50 into about 100, H folds and V2 tank fold, and V1 shows 95. I asked V2 if he folded a K and he said no he said a pocket pair but I don't believe him tbh.

This is the last hand of the night for me and I have made this known (stupid I know).

V is effective stack with about 300 and there has literally been only 1 3Bet in 4 hours.

Maybe a limp or two and another V makes it 6 in CU, H looks down at 6s6d in the Button and calls, V in BB makes the call - 3 ways to a flop

Flop (18ish)
Jh7h6h

X,X H bets 15, V calls, OR folds

Heads up to a turn

Turn (48ish)
Jh7h6h4d
x, H bets 35, V asks how much it is and makes the call

River (118ish)
Jh7h6h4d3d

x, H bets 30, V xr to 105, H?
Monotone Board with Bottom Set Facing river xr Quote
05-17-2024 , 09:08 AM
Sets just aren't good enough to triple here on a 4-straight after a large multiway c-bet. Never bluff catch vs river XR
Monotone Board with Bottom Set Facing river xr Quote
05-17-2024 , 09:31 AM
Villain more likely has the 5 then a flush after asking how much it is to call on the turn. Flushes wouldn't need to ask how much, they are only considering if they want to raise then.

River should be a disciplined fold. A tight player won't be making river check/raise bluffs or raising anything you beat for value. The only way your winning here is if villain is enough of a player to exploit the fact that you said it was your last hand.
Monotone Board with Bottom Set Facing river xr Quote
05-17-2024 , 10:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuadJ
Villain more likely has the 5 then a flush after asking how much it is to call on the turn. Flushes wouldn't need to ask how much, they are only considering if they want to raise then.

River should be a disciplined fold. A tight player won't be making river check/raise bluffs or raising anything you beat for value. The only way your winning here is if villain is enough of a player to exploit the fact that you said it was your last hand.
I think another factor here that could induce a river check raise bluff is hero's river sizing. He bet $35 on the turn into $50 and then $30 on the river into $120. I think this could potentially induce a bluff raise even from a weaker player.

The other factor - does a tight player raise the river for value with a naked 5 and significant stack depth behind? I'm not so sure.

I think betting this river is too thin on a 3 flush/4 straight board, but I miss thin value spots all the time so maybe it's OK. As played, you don't need to be good here very often to call.
Monotone Board with Bottom Set Facing river xr Quote
05-17-2024 , 12:52 PM
River bet is mandatory—V will have a lot of one-pair hands to call it with (AA-QQ, AJ, KJ, etc, all make sense)—but this is a crystal-clear bet-fold spot.
Monotone Board with Bottom Set Facing river xr Quote
05-17-2024 , 01:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by davomalvolio
River bet is mandatory—V will have a lot of one-pair hands to call it with (AA-QQ, AJ, KJ, etc, all make sense)—but this is a crystal-clear bet-fold spot.
Villain flatted BB so I think they have too many flushes/straights for us to bet

i don't know much about how OMCs play but I'd be a bit surprised if they call 3 streets with AJ especially no heart
Monotone Board with Bottom Set Facing river xr Quote
05-17-2024 , 02:00 PM
The problem with betting so small otr sometimes is it could open him up to bluff you with a missed FD if your bet looks weak so I would call as played.
Monotone Board with Bottom Set Facing river xr Quote
05-18-2024 , 12:26 PM
Just check back river.

As played, just fold. We beat no value, and this is a very under-bluffed spot, even with the bluff-inducing bet size.
Monotone Board with Bottom Set Facing river xr Quote
05-19-2024 , 09:53 AM
Yeah I folded and showed as it was my last hand, in an attempt to to get V to show. V looked a little surprised that I folded but he didn't show. I figured if it was a bluff he would have shown to put the extra salt in the wound.
Monotone Board with Bottom Set Facing river xr Quote

      
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