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Miller's Gambit to the Flop Miller's Gambit to the Flop

11-10-2023 , 08:02 PM
In dozens of articles Cardplayer Magazine and in single-authored and co-authored books, Ed Miller taught amateurs like me how to play poker correctly. In The Course (2015), he proposed a gambit, an easy-to-follow plan. Like a chess gambit, Miller’s gambit is a set of right decisions that induce your opponents to make mistakes. When you follow it, you make money as your opponents fold and you arrive at the turn with an informational advantage. Miller’s strategy applies only to small-stakes (1/2 to 5/10) live no limit hold ‘em, today’s poker “course” (like a golf course). This gambit does not work online or with people who know basic GTO. Miller suggests it can work multiway, but I think it works only heads up. If everyone played this gambit, no one could beat the rake. So don’t tell anyone beyond the forum. Tell Ed thank you.

The gambit follows the principle that we make money from opponents who call or raise too much, who put too much money in the pot (Miller, The Course, 35). Losing players play too many bad hands. The winning player has to play some hands worse than his opponents. But he bluffs only in favorable spots. He limits playing his bad hands so he doesn't put too much money in the pot. We win sometimes when losing Vs play too few hands because we stay out of their way and don’t put too much money in the pot. The fit-or-fold player who plays too few hands postflop loses because he plays too many hands preflop. He’s folding his bad hands on later streets. When he bets his occasional good hands, you fold more often. You don’t put too more money in the pot.

The first part of the gambit follows correct preflop ranges on raising first in and three betting. These ranges get us to the flop as the preflop raiser with better hands, usually in position. Miller’s preflop ranges are in my opinion too wide for amateurs, closer to good LAG than TAG (Miller, The Course, 43-80). The correct ranges also widen or tighten because of player pool. On the course, the players who raise too many bad hands are sadly few. Most low stakes players are loose passives. They play too many hands by limping and calling limps. Winning players never open limp. They rarely call limps. They raise good hands and fold bad ones. This preflop strategy is easy. I have it all on one page in my phone. You can read more about it here.

In the second part of the gambit, you reach the flop as the preflop raiser either 1) out of position or 2) in position, and your opponent now checks to you. This part of the gambit does not work when your opponent donks. I think it works only when heads up.

In the gambit, when you flop top pair or better about one third of the time, you make a value bet. When you don’t flop top pair or better two thirds of the time, you continue with one third of your range and fold with the other third. The decision about whether to fold or make a continuation bet depends on your flop equity. You win because preflop strategy ensures you flop more equity than your opponent.

The size of these value and continuation bets depends not on your hand but on the flop texture. Betting the same ensures that your opponents cannot distinguish your value bets from your continuation bets. From your bet sizing, they cannot determine whether you hit the flop or are bluffing. Instead, your bet sizing is based on flop texture: one-third pot bet on a dry/static flop and two-thirds pot a on wet/dynamic flop. The gambit works by cheapening the continuation-bet bluffs. With this gambit, you make people fold better hands because you make more cheap bluffs. Getting people to fold costs less (Miller, The Course, 167-178).

Tired of losing with AQo, I ran the hand through random flops through Miller’s gambit. When you hit trips, stack sizes and player types determine whether to check or bet two thirds. Same holds for dry/dynamic flops.

AhQc, preflop raiser, facing one caller, out of position.

Flop Bet
AcTc6h Two thirds
Qc9cTd Two thirds
AsJs7s Two thirds
QhQs8s Check or two thirds
8c3d3h Check or two thirds
Jd3s5h One third
Jh6s2s One third
8h7d5s One third
Th6d5c One third
Qd5d4h One third
Ts8d2h One third
9s6c7h Check
Kd9d3c Check
Kd4d2c Check
9c4c7c Check
KcKs4s Check


Ed suggests you can play this strategy multiway, but I am skeptical. With a third player in the hand, dry flops hit your opponents too often. I am always surprised how the pros on 2+2 take suggest a more a passive strategy multiway. If you think you can play a gambit like Miller’s multiway, please let me know.

Last edited by adonson; 11-10-2023 at 08:24 PM.
Miller's Gambit to the Flop Quote

      
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