The other day i was playing 1-2 at a local card room 6 handed. There had been a bunch of limped pots and most people here showed down some pretty marginal hand. I was sitting on the button and picked up 99. UTG and the cutoff had limped to me. UTG seemed like a standard fish who overvalues pairs and also seemed very loose passive. I have been playing with the cutoff for a while and he is a very LAG opponent and seems relatively competent. I have 225 in front of me, UTG has ~100, and the cutoff has me covered. I figure I might as well raise it up to prevent hands like K5 suited or so (the kinds of hands which people had been playing a bunch) from getting a cheap flop to draw out on me and I figure I rate to have the best hand so far. I raise to 13 to go since there are two limpers. SB and BB fold, UTG and cutoff call. There's now 42 in the pot. Flop comes 79J rainbow. It's checked to me. I bet 36, UTG folds and CO check-raises me all-in for 174 more. Can I possibly fold here? I figure 8 10 is WELL within his range here but I figure he could also easily have 77 or, the way he plays, he could also easily have something like J9 or he could be semi-bluffing with something like 910 (though these hands are less likely since three 9s are out). I read him as being really strong so I am honestly convinced that he has the straight, but can I just don't think I can fold. If he has the straight, I'm a 2:1 dog and I'm only getting 1.5:1 on my money. I figured if there was any possiblilty that he didn't have the straight then I had to call and just puke if he does and the board doesn't pair. So I called... Is this in fact a must call situation?

Yes

What makes you so dead set on him holding T8 in this spot? I think a more important question is what's the range he's putting you on? I think it's also important that we understand what your image is here to get a better idea of what range of hands he might be putting you on.

Also your statement about "might as well raise", should be more a no brainer in a short handed game especially in position IMO...

+1

1 hand beats you (discluding JJ from preflop action), and even against that hand you will win 1/3 times anyways. That hand has to be 100% of villain's range for it to be a bad call (like you said, 1.5:1 on money, 2:1 dog). Put even one other hand in his range and its +EV.

Villain shows up with a pair and a draw or two pair often enough to give you enough equity to call.

I don't see him ever showing up with a set of jacks here, and if he shows up with T8s, that sucks but chalk it up as a cooler.

Monsters under the bed to put him on T8 only.

He just as easily does this with J9 or 77. Cawl fistpump

Double fistpump, with a footpump added.

I had been playing very TAG that session but the villain had seen me mix it up quite a bit in past sessions. I don't think he has to give me credit for more than an overpair here so I guess that leads more towards calling.

I just thought he had 10 8 exactly because he looked extremely comfortable putting his chips in etc. I asked him "did you really flop a straight on me" and his head jerked up a little. Just seemed suspiciously like 10 8.

with your image, and that flop, is villain really going for value here? doesn't seem like it, looks like a classic semi bluff to me. call, then take your chips back and call again. you're good here probably something close to 85% of the time, so the short answer is no, I cannot find a fold here.

Didn't take me too long to call, of course.....

@ steady against a typical opponent that's usually a semi-bluff I think but against this one, he tends to overbet with the nuts or close to it. I guess I neglected to mention than in the OP

That would be kind of important info especially if you play with him often enough to know his tendencies. Even still I think I call.

So here is where you've answered your own question. IF he has a straight, your short on the odds to call.

Problem is, you've not accounted for the other hands he could have in this situation, including a str8 draw, two pair, TP, or some other hand. The str8 is at the very top of his range and you need to account for all the other stuff he could have. Surely when you figure that in, you'll make up that .5 and I would suspect substantially more.

Sarge