1/2 game - table had a number of short stack. Guys buying in for $100-140, typical opens were $10-$15. Hero been at the table for maybe 2 orbits. Fairly snug. The game had a few open seats of which I took one. So there are 3-4 new players to the table.

Hero is in MP with $315 stack. Sat down with $300.

EP - MAWG -$60 stack. Very snug seems like he is nut peddling.
EP2 - not relevant - small $100 or so stack
MP - HERO $300 stack. Fairly snug generally.
CO - $350-375 stack. Doubled up a few hands earlier - he put it in bad and sucked out like a boss. Very active - lots of calling pre or opening if limped. Preflop range was basically ATC it seemed.
BTN - LP fish. Buying in for 80-100$. his typical line was call/call/shrug-then-fold then adding on 40 as he complained about missing. Probably has $60-80 right now - major station.

PREFLOP
EP Limp
EP2 Limp
HERO TT raises to $15
CO calls
BTN calls
EP calls
EP2 calls

Flop $75
JT9
EP shoves $44 and is all-in
EP2 folds
Hero -- ?

Raise/gii? Raise/fold? Call and call raises? I would be happy to stack off with the ep shove even though I think he has a straight a lot and also with the btn. And hopefully with both. But I am not sure this is a gii with a set in this spot for over $300 with the CO. Or is this - you have a set just close your eyes and gii.

Not a huge read but I glance left and I think CO (guy with $350 stack) is either calling or raising. In previous hands would hold his cards like he was folding early and then would fold. Here he is covering his cards with his hands and seems to be paying close attn to the action. He is definitely in the hand if that makes sense.

Raise to 140/GII. Sorry you ran into KQ.

Do not let player's playing with their chips affect your bet. He could easily be doing this to prevent you from raising. Hell, I would tend to think this over him giving away a huge hand.

Def raise to charge the draws. You lose with middle set, it is what it is.

To be clear - CO was not going to fold was my read. Nothing to do with his chips rather he was clearly very focused on the play in front of him. His hands were kind of crossed on top of his cards.

Honestly on this board this is a very standard raise spot. You can either make it ~ 175, or just shove and maybe make it look more like you have a draw.
If you make it ~175 and CO shoves than call and hope you are good.

And yes - sometimes you will get stacked with middle set...

I guess I am always one to look at the non-standard play and consider it more than most. Sure, you can raise here to isolate and with this board who could blame you? But I want to consider how do I create a side pot just in case I am KQ'd in the main.

Is the best way to do this raise? Probably not, although your raise size will be a big determining factor since the 'all-in' wasn't that big.

I am always in favor or trying to get my money 'back' from the main in the side, so most of the time I would raise that amount (44+15= ... 60), being $105 to go now. I would probably do this since both the straight and flush draws exist on this board.

I am not totally ruling out flatting against the 'right' table/opponents to try and trap or hit the Full House. Does the CO like to bet or call? That would be my determining factor here on the Flop.

It all goes in on pretty much any Turn but I want to at least consider my best course of action to get the same number of chips invested in the side as I have in the main already. Raising may not be the best way to do this every time. GL

The problem with flatting is that if the turn bricks the draws very well might just give up when you bet. I am never flatting this bet unless I am pretty sure someone behind me is going to raise.

So we have a snug, assumedly nut-peddling shortstack shoving in front of us for ~60% pot, a loose fish behind us who has us covered and a draw-happy shortstack on the button yet to act. At this point your actions will have essentially no effect on either of the shortstacks, so we want to focus on the CO who has us covered.

Option 1) Fold.

Yeah, right.

Option 2) Call.

Keeps weaker made hands in, perhaps builds a pot for the turn that will pot-commit them. Allows drawing hands to get to the turn cheaply. If button shoves, we cannot re-shove as the action won't be open again. I don't see a huge upside here.

Option 3) Raise small.

Builds a pot for a turn shove and doesn't blow out weak made hands. We get some equity from drawing hands.

Option 4) Raise big (ship ship)

Will probably clear out weak draws and weak made hands, isolating us against strong made hands and combo draws.

I think our decision rests on two key factors:

What does villain think an all-in on from us means (draw, nuts, etc)?
What are his tendencies in big pots when there are no more decisions to make?

Some players are more likely to gamble if they know there's no more betting and even if they lose they'll still have chips. Others are less likely to get it in on a draw unless they get an installment plan (option 3).

I want to choose the option that keeps in as many made hands from CO as possible. If he's more likely to call a shove since it 'looks bluffy', then that's what I'll do. If he is more likely to call us down in $150 chunks, then do that.

If you have no idea what he's going to do, say 'I'm all-in' because it's fun.

I agree it's either a smaller bet or gii. Up to you. I probably go smaller to keep him in. Obviously never folding.

I think I made a mistake in this hand. My instinct was to raise obviously. Then after looking left at the CO I said to myself - whoa there cowboy. I just got a bad feeling. Here was my break down.

Shove/Very big bet: If I gross overbet/jam then I am only getting call by a straight. Yes I isolate the short EP villian but I am risking ~280 to be maybe 60-40 and maybe 30-70 versus V to win $115. Even if CO thinks I am FOS he probably folds everything worse for sure. I didnt really consider this in game.

Standard raise: In game I was thinking $140. But my mubsy nature was the CO wanted to get his money into the pot.

Call: I think there is a chance though he just flat calls b/c sometimes when someone is all-in people will just call that short bet a lot. And I thought while I may be giving a free card, I might just get a call on the flop from CO b/c of that and then I could reevaluate and it makes the turn super easy. (CO and BTN call pot is ~260 with a psb left.) I am jamming any safe card. Maybe check a boat/quads because he might call a river bet more than a turn bet and might bluff on the turn. Flush and straight cards I would have had to evaluate but probably have to call off V anyway so yeah it is probably going in. And I would be able to kind of read his flop bet but was probably - 95% probably folding to a raise.

I realize this may not be optimal but that was the reasoning.

To continue - I obviously called. CO raised fairly quickly to $150. Btn folded, I folded. I just didnt think he was doing this with less than a straight based mostly on feel. I thought EP was nut peddling KQ and CO maybe had low end of the straight or this was a chop.

Thanks for the all the replies.



For those that want spoilers

So we call ... getting 3 (or maybe 4) to 1 to draw to a boat and then fold ... getting the same 3 to 1 on the same draw but for more chips. Hero only has $150 behind if he calls the Flop raise so is now committed to gii on Turn or shove Flop. This all sounds/looks like 'no brainer' poker ... but is it really a 'duck' ...

Results talking of course, but this is where IMO we need to think about the 'no brainer' stuff and save chips in tough, multi-way spots like this. Hero would've basically put in $300 OTF to win $419 as a 3 to 1 dawg.

Poker is a waiting game ... and I think this spot (along with falling in love with your AA) is where we really need to slow down and let the hand pass by. I applaud our Hero, but of course that is results biased. Even if Hero was ahead (by math, by robot poker) do we really want to fire off our stack multi-way even if we are 44% to win?

Even my original post suggested a 'flat/shove' or 'small raise/gii' tone, but anyone who reads my posts will know that the live reads are heavy in my game and certainly could've come into play in a pot like this. Perhaps it's just that I haven't won enough of them (that I can remember) or the fact that I limit my chances to win them by not being in them at the end.

Well done Hero, but some will still say that you made the incorrect move here. GL

Every time you make that fold you lose over 35 dollars, because even if he shows you KQ you're getting odds to call. If you're going to start folding sets based on this hand you're shooting yourself in the foot.

The best thing for your poker career would be for you to go to http://propokertools.com/simulations?g=he and learn how +EV calling would have been.

Poker is math.

Let's flip coins. If it's heads I'll give you 2 dollars, if it's tails you give me one dollar. We flip the coin once, it's tails, and you say I'm quitting this game.

I...I just can't even comprehend this fold.

Forget the raise size, Hero is all in or nothing here ... Hero is basically putting in $240 to win $440 (35%). And in the side is putting in $240 to win $240. So we are all for making =EV moves?

I agree that poker is math and if you expand V range even a tinge the numbers can make this look a bit +EV for Hero, but we are in a =EV spot here against 2 opponents even if they are both on draws with only $60 (20% of our stack) invested.

Like I indicated earlier ... sometimes you just need to walk away from AA and hands like this one that just don't feel right. That may have a bit of tournament in my comment but why put chips in play if you really feel it's only a =EV play? GL

First - I already posted I made a mistake. Twice I think actually.

Second - Poker is math we agree.

Third - This is learning from my mistakes.

I have been meaning to run equity calcs but life has interfered so here goes.

Board: JT9
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****32.32%**21.72%**10.60%*{ KQs, 87s, KQo, 87o }
MP2****35.31%**34.91%***0.40%*{ TdTs }
CO*****32.37%**21.77%**10.60%*{ KQs, 87s, KQo, 87o }



There is $75 in the pot. Plus EP $44+my$44+CO$44 for $207. I am putting in $44 to win $207 (assuming BTN station folds w/e i forgot about him for this). Clearly I want to make this bet all day long. And I undervalued this equity considerably.

Side pot - assuming GII in all circumstances

Board: JT9
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****35.21%**34.09%***1.13%*{ TdTs }
CO*****64.79%**63.66%***1.13%*{ KQs, 87s, KQo, 87o }


I am putting $240 to win $480 for 1-1. I need 50% equity here right? I am short 15% - maybe less if we widen his range to include 99 and a few huge combo draws but my read is this is his range. In game my thought was 70-30 dog needing 50% on the majority of my stack - no way I am making that up. I obv did not go into this level of detail nor realize or think about the $75 already in the pot.


I definitely need to be better at this plus if BTN station comes along with his $60 or so I pick up equity there. It is a learning process and i think this helps me understand - sets = gii.

thanks for your comments

You can't just look at the side as getting 1:1 and needing 50% versus his range to call, because if you fold the side you also forfeit your equity in the main.

right but i was assuming i never was folding - sorry if that wasnt clear.