2/5 FR

Villain: usually the spot in the game, plays pretty soft against me, I've barreled him in the passed and he always found folds, this sess. He's called raises IP with speculative hands just to smash a flop but folded turn when missed,
1 noticeable hand he played vs scared money nit, he called a $30 HJ raise OTB with A9o
Called a $60 C on a A54xss board turn 6x called $90 River 9x and he raised a $125 to $430 and the PFR folded.
His usual game is to call with ATC and smash.
Open Raising range AQs+ 1010+ from any position to $35

Hero:losing image, haven't really played any hands, raised twice and folded post when flopped with no equity multi way, 3/bet once with KK and lost a sizable pot when I went too ****** thin with the nut str8 on a flush board, so I'm stuck about $500

$920 eff. Villain covers.

Otth
Villain open utg2 to $35, I call in the CO with 55, BTN calls, SB calls
Pot $140
Flop
Q54hhx
Villain checks, hero bets $115
2 folds, villain c/c
Pot $370
Turn 6x
Villain checks, hero bets $245, villain c/r to $540

Hero?

If V's opening range is truly what you said, then jam. He might be calling pre with 78/66 but not opening from EP with it. 66 he probably would have folded flop as your description smells as him playing fit or fold post.

Sick spot. Feels like a slowplayed QQ unless your read on his pfr range is wrong and he turned the straight with 78hh or something. Pray he has some semi-bluff or 44 and shove. Interested to know results.

As played by villain, seems to be a standard slowplay. Does villain slowplay nuts on a draw heavy 4 player flop (since most ABC players would not)? If opening range is accurate and hands like KQ are not included, this is a pretty sick spot unless he misplayed KK/AA horrifically. If player profiles are accurate, I would really try to find the fold. I wouldn't because of the flop check, but I would try. Shove.

^^
Thought the same, KK-AA and AQ would deff. Be played the same, he is one of those villains that is afraid of suckouts/coolers so he might wait for "good/safe" turn before he lays the hammer down

GII.

If you are very sure he does this with TPTK obv shove

Grunch.

Unless you are putting him on exactly QQ, I would ship it here. Looks like he could be wider than that based on the A9 hand you posted though.

I can't fold a set to this guy. Based on description, you lose to QQ only. Does he usually slow-play?

Not in my experience with him but he is capable of over playing.

Not sure how folding here is ever correct we would have to be right like 85% of the time that villan only plays QQ like this. I think it's a trivial get it in spot here.

Then I read this post and now it is even more obvious that we should never befolding.

ship it

Inlcude AA, KK, QQ, and AQ in V's Range and it is a easy call. We are almost a 7:1 favorite against that Range.

Inlcude 7,8 and A,4 just for fun and we are still better than 5:1.

Sorry you lost, but never folding a set heads up against the PFR with almost half our stack in the middle.

It looks like you were planning on firing flop, turn, river against Villain's too-strong-to-continuation bet range. If that's filled with lots of hands then your decision on the turn should be clear.

Most people I play with that range is pretty narrow.

Honestly, I think he has QQ. It feels like a slowplayed QQ.

In your assessment, you said a $35 raise is AQ+ TT+.

So would AQ, KK, AA, check flop, check raise turn? possible, but im leaning toward no.
So would TT, JJ, check flop, check raise turn? doubtful.

You also said, trying to smash atc, and fold turn if missed. This doesnt sound like he missed.

As soon as he check flop, immediately I would think he has QQ and a check raise turn to me confirms it. I think I am folding based on above information

If you're folding mid sets in this spot then I guess you're folding all small pairs pre to this type of player?
What flops are you looking for with Small PP IP vs a strong EP raise?

He would take the same line against most with AA/KK and AQ.

So if we count combinations of hands we're ahead off and hands that we're behind would you still fold giving him a range of specifically QQQ?

Doomed is right, you can't fold. X2 given his tendencies to overplay hands in general and to wait for "safe" turns with big hands. You are getting roughly 3-1 to put in the rest of your stack. Even in a worst case scenario against QQ and only 1 combo of AQ you have 27% equity; make it QQ and AQs and it rises to 51% equity.

I am more interested in if hero should flat or 3B AI. If villain is a MUBS type, could shipping narrow his turn calling range to the point where hero makes more by calling risking getting in no more $ on a bad river?

No Way I am folding giving description. He flops a set vs a flush draw and he doesn't bet OR C/R? I dont see too many spazzes with that type of control. He could have just picked up another draw on top of his flush draw on the turn. He could have you crushed. But that's why we have reads. You are beating too much of his range and have too much invested to ever fold unless you have some sick soul read.

If you called and lost, sorry but you did it right. If you folded, I disagree.

[Spoil] hero goes with the only option he perceives to be "correct" and shoves, villain snap calls, River A, hero says set, villain says ***** did you River it and flips over a QQQ 😢[spoil]
Thank you all for your input!

Shoving is fine and def +ev but I think calling the turn should be given some thought. If villain is capable of folding AA on the turn, but would call the river when a blank hits (or semi blanks like a straightening card), calling turn might be more +ev

Thought about that but took into consideration that he's not one too fold anything once he puts in $600+ into the pot so opted to shove.

No, I still would be calling with small pocket pairs to bust him, but I'd be extra careful. Also, I would have to make it known to me I can peg him on exactly AA or KK.

I disagree with you with him taking the same line with AA/KK AQ. I doubt he would check flop with AA/KK and especially AQ. Why check? Too many scare cards with either of those hands to check. I think the average 1/2 player is not checking AA KK AQ on that board. They are betting.

I made my thinking of him have QQ based on your description and the typical 1/2 average player. Most average players check top set hoping someone catches up and a check raise turn confirms it.

Honestly its a cooler there is no doubt about it.

Don't fold