1/3 Aria
100bb effective

HJ raises to 10
BTN calls 10
Hero (sb) calls 10 w 77
BB calls 10

Flop Q73R

H leads 15
BB calls 15

Turn 6

H leads 35
V thinks briefly then calls 35

River 8 (no backdoor flush)

H bets 60
V insta raises to 200 with 100 ish behind.

** THOUGHTS**
- I know many good, winning players who would say they are never folding this hand. That this is a no brainer call. But lets think about it...

What can I beat?

I can beat Q8, 33, 76, and 78.

How likely is it he had these hands? This guy in an unknown white mid 40's tourist from England. He has not played many hands for the hour or so I was at the table. I think I can safely eliminate 76 or 78, I don't think hes that loose OTF with people behind him multiway to call with mid pair bad kicker. So guys might HU but not in this situation.

I also don't think he plays Q8 very often, maybe if its suited, but that's still pretty lose if my judgement of him is correct.

I am BEAT by 45 and QQ. He MIGHT have 45 if its suited, but that still loose if this guy is on the tight side.

So basically the most likely holding is he is playing 33 or QQ this way.


Otherwise what is he really repping? I certainly don't think its ever a bluff with this line either.

I think the flop is dry enough to go for a C/raise. We could have had more $ go in that way. I think our turn sizing should increase to 2/3 -full pot.

Edit, if he has QQ in his range, then he might have KK+ as well. I think 1 hr is too short to eliminate junkier hands from his range, especially as bb getting good odds and closing action. I think 66 could be in his range also. Anyways, I lean calling, but think the hand could have been better if we took a C/r line pre flop that made commitment more probable, therefore river decisions simpler. We were 1st to act in a 4 way pot. The pf aggressor was 3rd to act & board was dry w/ a face card.

No reads posted on our V? Oh, I see they are posted in the end.

Leading $15 into $40 seems wasteful.

Go slightly bigger or c/c and or c/r.

I call.

Being dry actually gives better merit to lead or c/c and not c/r.

Ok, good point. Less that'll call us pending opponents.

Doesn't make any sense.

Sizing is poor throughout. Bigger every street. If you got sucked out on it's just a cooler.

We don't have the reads to fold. He probably shows up with the nuts a lot, but it's hard to put him squarely on 54/QQ enough of the time to fold only needing to be good 35%. He could be value-towning himself. llsnl spew factor.

Not shoving, but have to call.

A fold shouldn't even cross your mind, honestly. I am probably shoving and not feeling bad about it. 33,66,67,78,Q8 can all show up here at these stakes. Definitely not folding though when we only need to be good 26% of the time.

Shove IMO. If he's capable of having QQ or 45s here, he's capable of having wayyyy more.

+1

Honestly I wouldn't be shocked if he played any random Q this way, like QJ or QT.

When you flop a set with effective stacks of 100 bbs, you should be trying to get all of your chips in the middle.

Your flop lead of $15 is bad. Either bet bigger or c/r.

As played, shove. I'm going for max value. And I think he shows up with way worse a lot of the time. I would not be surprised to see Q8 or even AQ.

When you bet with terrible sizing every street villains will be more likely to attack them assuming a weakish range. Folding is criminal.

Other streets aside folding here would be absurd. If you really want to be MUBSY then I gusss just call? But I'm fist-pump jamming for value

You can beat a lot. More on the flop, more on the turn. This is a no brainer call.

Sorry you lost to QQ.

I think you got unlucky on this one vs a set of 8s.....is v the type that is bluffing the river....nope.

I'm cool with preflop.

The SPR is about 7, so we can get stacks in with some 3/4 - PSBs on each street. I'd probably go $30 on the flop to get this started, plus it gets more immediate value from Qx (especially when they decide to only call one street).

I'm not a fan of our small flop/turn bets, as it would leave us in a HU $140 pot with $240 to shove on the river. We should be sizing our bets to play for stacks, and with this SPR we are able to do so with very reasonable bets.

Another problem with the small bets is that we should have just simply gotten both ourselves and our opponent more easily committed by the river, in which case the river would be trivial for both of us (i.e. we're committed). This spot is a little weird due to how we sized things, but I probably call it off (ETA: or even shove the rest in myself as others have suggested) since I'm not one to fold sets to randoms.

GcluelessNLnoobG