Borgata 6am Sunday morning
Hero 2800
Villain covers complete unknown, I play here everyday never seen him before. Comes from a broken game 20 min ago. Played 1 hand where he opened K9 off over a limper and bet 2 streets on a K57K board and checked back on a 10 river against a player in the big blind and was good. Only hand I've seen from him so not much info to go on.

Hand
2 limps to villain in hj, raises to 30. I call in co with 99, button both blinds and both limpers call, so we see a flop 7 handed

Flop ($210)
Qd 9s 3d
Checks to villain, he bets 125. I raise to 300. Folds back to villain who takes a few seconds and makes it 750 to go.
Hero ?

I play 1/2 so take this for what it's worth. Based on the limited info you have on villain you know he is capable of opening light. Middle set over top set is a cooler up until a certain point. Is 560 BB's too deep to be considered a cooler? I'm not sure.

I am torn between flatting and shoving, but probably leaning towards flatting here and seeing what he does on the turn. I think any non-diamond turn you are shoving though.

I think we have to flat and pot, ship or call all non A/K turns. V could be a tourney donk who ran his stack up (likely, given that it's the middle of the winter open).

If he opened K9 then surely he's opening to 30 in hj over limpers with much wider range than only QQ. So I guess the question is 'how to extract max value?' I think you should make it 1500 hoping he comes in or ships with any type of overpair/ fd/sd. Obv folding is not an option, and calling seems pretty gross to give him a free card on such a wet board....only option is to raise imho and looks like its either 1500ish or a bit more depending on v's stack.... I guess if his stack is close to yours in size I would try to bet enough to commit him to the pot and then ship any turn.

Then again I just play 1/2 so take that with a grain of salt

click it back to 1300...

Do we have 9d? That's pretty relevant here; having it takes a bunch of pair+draw hands out of V's range.

The fact that he opened K9o means he can take this line with a few weaker value hands (Q9, 33), and can have a few combo draws or even Axd, so I can't imagine folding here. His sizing is also weird; he's making it clearly correct for our combo draws to call. Problem is calling kinda sucks because we hate half the deck and still have >PSB behind, and 4b is really thin if he has a fold button. In the moment, I probably flat and gii on most turn cards, but a small 4b for value with the intention to gii on the turn might be better, since flatting allows him to get away too easily from weaker hands on a bunch of possible turn cards.

Playing against an unknown 560bb deep is hard

His raising range pre is much wider than his 3 bet range on the flop deep. I think he over limps 33 so QQ is gonna be a huge part of his range. If you 4 bet here I think the only thing he's shoving is QQ and maybe JT. Sets are great live but at these stack sizes I think any non-nut hand has huge RIO. I'd flat and try to pot control as gross/nitty as this sounds.

Gross situation that deep when he 3 bets the flop. Given villain description, he can obviously be wider then QQ. However, you don't have much read and on a rather wet board you don't know if he could be betting his draws or even hands as weak as QX to protect against your draws.

All things considered I think I shove. There are too many possible draws you want to charge and you don't have a firm idea of villain's range or play style. There are too many turn cards that can leave you guessing. His range is going to be pairs or better and draws on the flop and obviously weighted towards the top end. The weak end of that give up when you flat or raise here and the two pair hands are unlikely because you block Q9s. So his continuing range is weighted towards monsters and draws. You need to go to something like 2K to deny odds to the good draws, so you might as well move in now.

Ship it

Sick spot. Don't have anything new to contribute,just posting to follow discussion.

I really don't think he's on a draw since he cbet just over half pot with 7 people on the flop, he is almost begging people to come along. Wouldn't he maybe pot it with so many people in the hand with a FD (maybe I'm giving him too much credit here).

His raise from 300 to 750 doesn't seem to be trying to fold you out. He is probably expecting you to flat, and some people might even jam it back down his throat if they had a NFD.

on paper this looks like QQ

Playing this deep is rare for me, so not feeling like I'm offering an expert opinion here. JTdd, KTdd, QQ all make sense w possible AKdd, ATdd, KJdd in there too. He'd have to show me QQ for me to fold.

On one hand, I hate to flat and have him get there on the turn when so many combo draws are in his range. On the other hand, I feel like 5B shipping turns our hand face up and may give him a chance to fold.

Really tough. If I flat, it's not for pot control, it's to play turn in position knowing he's most likely going to continue his aggression and I can easily shove. If so, I may have to be willing to give it up if combo draws come in on turn and I don't get odds to pair the board. I'm taking a risk to try to get his whole stack (little bit greedy) instead of what's in the middle now.

Overall, I think I'd probably ship it.

If he has QQ, I don't see how we avoid getting it in by the river either way. If we call here, the pot will be $1710 and we'll have ~$2000 left. V can bet $1000-1250 on the turn and the rest on the river.

So I think there are two real questions here:
1. Can we find a fold at this spot, this deep?
2. How do we extract max value from the rest of his likely range?

My answer to #1 is probably no. $30 is a pretty small pf raise with QQ after multiple limpers. It depends a bit on table dynamics, but I would usually expect that raise to result in a large, multiway pot. That seems more consistent with suited connectors, axdd, and small pocket pairs than QQ. (I'm not saying QQ *isn't* in an unknown's range here. I'm just saying that I can't eliminate the other hands. And I need to eliminate those hands with near certainty if I'm gonna fold middle set to flop 3-bet on a board with this texture.)

So I'm going to accept the huge, day-ruining swing when this guy set-over-sets me. It sucks, but I don't have a fold in me on the flop. Let's move to #2.

I agree with Jay S that 9d is an important card to keep track of. If it's in our hand, then we can eliminate a major combo draw. A9dd could definitely play this way. So could AKdd. Same with J10dd. J10dd will probably call a shove from us, A9dd might fold to a shove, AKdd might fold to a shove.. AA and KK might also play this way, and will probably fold to a shove. AdQx might play this way. 33 will play this way, and will definitely call a shove.

The problem is, with J10, A9, and AA all in play, there are a ton of scare cards in the deck. Any K, any 8, any d, any 3, and any A. And we don't know if he's the type to rep a scare card or not. So I think just calling here creates a minefield of mistakes on later streets.

I think I would lean toward clicking it back to ~$1750, with a plan to call any shove and gii on any non-diamond turn. I'll call a shove (and pray) on a diamond turn as well.

I've only played this deep a hand full of times but Ill give it a go. When we are talking about a random semi competent player I feel like we need to start with a wide range and do our best to narrow it down from there. We have info of him raisin K9 off suit, villans opening range is far wider than your average villan. 33 is certainly in his raising range. The trick is figuring out what villans flop 3 betting range is, I believe KJd KTd JTd and Axd are all possibilities. As well as AA and KK though I'm going to discount those some.

Villans sizing on the flop is somewhat standard with so many callers. I don't think its exclusively the nuts praying for a call. Villan could still be doin this with a number of hands but we just have no idea what he 3 bets the flop with. I'm nit 100% sure villan wouldn't do this with over pairs. For the turn action im far more likely to A) flat or B) click it back.

My reason for Flatting is we want to give the villan a chance to spew. The unknown villan can be capable of all sorts of spazz moves. We conceal our hand strength to some level as well. Down sides are a scared card can peal and make things very difficult for us(especially when there are some combo draws i. Villans range).

My reason for clicking it back are to get as much money in the pot and basically stack off on any turn card. Our villan will never fold his drawing hands and sometimes he just ships and we are off to the races. Down sides are we fold out villans bluff/spazzing range(assuming there is any) and sometimes he may fold an over pair(again assuming he plays an over pair like this).

My conclusion is that this is likely still a stacking off spot mainly due to the limited amount of history. Not to mention he could be a tourney player with all sorts of spew and spazz in his game.

I'm not saying it's a snap call or shove, being so deep just further complicates our decision making process. If we can't stack off with the second nuts on a wet board Vs and unknown then I may have to go back to the drawing board and really focus on my deep stack play. Just imagine the pressure we can place on villans when we can put them to tough decisions.

[QUOTE=sierradave;45906724]If he has QQ, I don't see how we avoid getting it in by the river either way. If we call here, the pot will be $1710 and we'll have ~$2000 left. V can bet $1000-1250 on the turn and the rest on the river.

So I think there are two real questions here:
1. Can we find a fold at this spot, this deep?
2. How do we extract max value from the rest of his likely range?

My answer to #1 is probably no. $30 is a pretty small pf raise with QQ after multiple limpers. It depends a bit on table dynamics, but I would usually expect that raise to result in a large, multiway pot. That seems more consistent with suited connectors, axdd, and small pocket pairs than QQ. (I'm not saying QQ *isn't* in an unknown's range here. I'm just saying that I can't eliminate the other hands. And I need to eliminate those hands with near certainty if I'm gonna fold middle set to flop 3-bet on a board with this texture.)

So I'm going to accept the huge, day-ruining swing when this guy set-over-sets me. It sucks, but I don't have a fold in me on the flop. Let's move to #2.

I agree with Jay S that 9d is an important card to keep track of. If it's in our hand, then we can eliminate a major combo draw. A9dd could definitely play this way. So could AKdd. Same with J10dd. J10dd will probably call a shove from us, A9dd might fold to a shove, AKdd might fold to a shove.. AA and KK might also play this way, and will probably fold to a shove. AdQx might play this way. 33 will play this way, and will definitely call a shove.

The problem is, with J10, A9, and AA all in play, there are a ton of scare cards in the deck. Any K, any 8, any d, any 3, and any A. And we don't know if he's the type to rep a scare card or not. So I think just calling here creates a minefield of mistakes on later streets.

I think I would lean toward clicking it back to ~$1750, with a plan to call any shove and gii on any non-diamond turn. I'll call a shove (and pray) on a diamond turn as well.[/QUOTE

This is generally my thinking as well. I get greedy and would rather string an opponent along than turn my hand face up essentially and let him fold his overpairs, weaker draws and random spazz. I call and gii on just about any turn.

Where was villain when he opened K9 and what was his pfr?

One more question: what's our image to Villain? I realize he's only been here 20 min (and who knows if he's even been paying attention), but this plays differently if our VPIP is 0 vs. if we've been LAG'ing it up. If he's likely to see us as very aggro, flatting the flop 3b makes no sense.

He was co, and opened to 25 over 1 limper

I hadn't really played a pot while he was there, I was at the end of a 15hr session, just nitting it up .

instashove and make it look like you have AQ.

You are always good here, it is just a question of how to get it all in. I don't like flatting.....board is too draw heavy.....V might get there on the turn...or it might kill your action, so just calling is out of the question.

so.....do you click it back or jam? dude seems pretty spewy.....and you know he has been playing all night, so his compass could be way way off, I jam and hope he calls.

I can't imagine doing anything but shoving.

I only find a fold if I want to 100% guarantee my successful session, and only willing to gii with the nuts.

Against super tight range of A9dd,Q9, 10Jdd, QQ,33
We are a big favorite. Throw in some over pairs and our edge is even bigger.

Can't see him 3 bet folding. Want to charge his draws. Want more money in pot before scare cards.

Raising. Probably make it $1400. Jam all turns.

I would like to know more about this hand, specifically his position and sizing on each street. His river check could suggest he errs on the side of caution which makes me think his range is pretty value heavy when he 3! the flop this deep.

^ hmm very good point... Although does the guy who opens K9o over a limper really fit the 'erring on the side of caution' profile..? I suppose MAYBE if he's otb but from ep??

I like this thread.. interesting spot

ok - he most likely has ethir QQ / Q9 - JTdd or a combo draw like JKdd - I would assume he doesn't have 33 but he could. he could even have A9dd but I would weigh in towards a combo draw rather than QQ.

EZ answer - if you are going to raise - you have to have a plan on what you are gonna do when he reraises. My default would be to ship here.

If you don't wanna play like that - just call his bet and if you see what he does on the turn - his range won't be as wide if a diamond doesn't hit and the straight doesn't complete.

As played I don't see how you can get away from this. If you do end up folding just rack up your chips and play again later.