Please read this hand and tell me what I am missing.

2/5 NL live. Friday night

Hero ~400, Villian ~650

UTG +1 raises to $20, Villian calls. Hero picks up QQ and raises to 60 in the cutoff. Both players and the SB call

My reads on players - I've been at the table about 45 minutes. UTG +1 middle age guy, played pretty tight. I was in one hand with villian. There was a raise to 25 ,he called, and I rerasied to 100 (with AA) and he complained and folded. Younger guy, stated he just got out of the army, generally playing a lot of hands and calling a lot of raises.

Pot is $ ~240.

Flop is 910J

Checked to me. Without much of a sense of hand ranges with this action, I assume one is on a FD. Sitting with an overpair, straight draw, and a back door Q high flush draw, I'm not loving it, but feel pretty good.

Hero is AI for $330 (pot is $570) SB folds, UTG folds. Villian thinks for about 30 seconds and calls with A9

on the River and I lose a big pot.

When I first think through the hand, I'm happy to get my money in good, and feel he kind of donked out on me. He claims he could not have called for "all of his chips, but felt comfortable calling for less.

He basically put in $330 to win $570. 1.75 to 1 on his money.

I was suprised today when I ran the odds calc on Carplayer to see I was only 52.9% to 46.5% favorite.

Now I am confused and here are my questions.

Was the shove correct?

Am I understanding correctly that he what was getting 1.75 to 1 on his money, and being only a slight underdog he was correct to call? Even if he had only the FD and no pair it was 58% / 41%.

Whas there a better play for me? If I check the flop, (the turn was a blank) and then shove, I'm thinking he calls anyway. If it goes check check to the river and the flush comes, maybe I fold with only $60 invested. However in position, I have been working on playing more agressive and this spot seemed ideal.

None the less I signed up for Drag The Bar today and I am focused on working harder on my game. I searced equity calculations on 2+2 before writting this, but to be honest I don't see myself going through all those formula's in a live setting. Every post you read talks about pokerstove, can I bring that to the table?

Hoping to pick up some good insight. Thanks for reading.

but that is a much better result for you as your equity goes way up when a blank comes on he turn

Yeah but on a board like that I'm not checking either. Im shoving as well. Theres not many hands that are in villians 3-bet calling range that beat us now, but on a board like that its possible his hand will beat us later.

I think you got your money in while you were ahead. What more can you ask for? We don't make money at poker the way we want to. We make money the way things play out. If the beat hurts a lot (or bothers you) then you may need to go down in stakes.

Some people pay any amount for their draws. Thank God for that.

Shove was fine. Call was fine. His pre-flop call was awful, but with the SPRs it created, neither of you could really do anything else on the flop.

And that was my original thought. But when I ran the odds on the computer the next day, I was wondering if he made the correct call.

Maybe this a testament to always buying in full? It is a 2/5 game $600 max. I bought in for $300 and was up to ~400.

Maybe if I'm deeper, he doesn't call, or at least doesn't pay the correct price to call.


I do agree, if they never get their money in bad, it's a lot harder for us to win.

The idea with poker stove is not that you need it at the tables. You play around with it so that you have a gut feeling of where you are with typical hands vs typical villange ranges.

Last year I was watching Annie Duke in the National Heads up Challange and she was talking outloud trying to decide whether she should call someone's AI. She had correctly put some guy on a range and said that she was 45%:55% (I dont remember the situationor odds exactly) to win and she had the odds to call. The situation doesn't matter really, it just demonstates that she has spent time playing with and memorizing poker stove.

This. Just think about the fact that you made him put $60 in preflop, just to find a flop where he's almost a coinflip to beat you. Most times that flop will totally miss him and you will drag the preflop pot like it's free money. Sometimes an ace will flop and you can get away from it. Sometimes the flop will come 9 high without the flush draw, and you'll get it in when you have him crushed. Overall this is very good for you in the long run.

I think you are asking question that don't really matter.
Like are you really going to check here against 3 other people after 3 people checked???. (Almost any card you don't know what to do on the turn)
Sure heads up against a flush draw might be good to check but you are not heads up.
You have a hand that is almost never crushed except against exactly KQ which probably would have lead fearing the flush draw (and you still have back door flush and K for split and back door full house)and a short enough stack even when you are against a set you basically have pot odds to call the flop anyways if someone else shoves.

If you were super deep maybe the best play is to check or bet like 200$ and reevaluate on turn depending who calls and action but honestly anyone who plays 1/2 and 2/5 (including me)is not super deep that often.

You played it good.

This isn't the same question, but it reminds me of when I tried to wrap my head around a limit poker situation where there's say 16 BBs in the pot after the turn, a flush draw on the board, and I can only bet 2 BBs. Even though my opponent has excellent odds to call and will be correct to do so (pretend his had is face up and he does in fact have a flush draw), betting is still the correct play because my opponent can profitably call, but he would be more profitable if he was able to check it down. I want to give him the least profit possible. Meanwhile, I don't get to consider the profitability of the full pot, just the betting in this round. It's profitable for me to bet the last bet because I'll win it 80% of the time vs his flush draw, so I should make it.

You're kind of in a similar situation, given you're limited by your stack size to be unable to shove enough into the middle to give him the wrong odds to call. But it's still profitable for you, and less profitable for him, to bet what you can.

In these sorts of hands, it's (theoretically) better to get the money in on the turn instead of the flop, because only YOU gain extra information (is the turn a diamond?). Villain does not gain extra information from the turn because he will call an all-in bet no matter what. Make sense?

Shove on flop: Win 55% of the time
Shove on turn: Still win 55% of time. But if the turn is a diamond, you just saved yourself $330.

Before I get flamed, this is obviously assuming ideal situations and you can read the villains hand...

Only do this if you are playing with scared money.
If we absolutely know the villian is on a flush draw (with a pair) and not on some 2pair/sets/overpair...we shoving everytime because we are ahead. If you cant flip for 55/45 on the flop for less than 100bb effective at the start of the hand....move down.

There are just going to be situations where everyone played the hand right and someone had to win. You should have shoved on the flop. He should have called on the flop.

His mistake was pf, but he got lucky.

im not a nit at all but if you described UTG+1 as pretty tight im not sure if i 3b here. i dont think were ahead of much of his calling range. also if were to 3b i would make my 3b a little bit bigger after one person has already called his preflop raise. make 75-85.

on the flop we dont have to shove we can bet a normal amount. but to be honest thats a pretty dirty looking board for qq 4 handed. i think checking cant be THAT bad but i hate checking there. i would have led for $140ish. do you think any of the villains are capable of c/r you here with a draw or a pr+draw combo? i think all made hands will either lead or c/r here in their spots. but if you think they are capable of c/r with some sort of combo then i would be b/c rather then b/f.

How could you "bet a normal amount" OTF? Pot is $240 and sopping wet. We only have $330 behind. If we bet $140 (which is too little for this board by a lot, imo) we have $190 left to bet on turn where pot will be over $500, a silly small bet.

Even if our flop bet is undersized, it is still committing, so we should put it in now for max FE and getting $$$ in while ahead.

so you like just jamming into 4 ppl on this flop? i think the hand that called and maybe qj which is probably discounted are the only hands that call us that we beat

Yes, def jam into 4. If we make a smaller bet, the odds are already there for people to draw, and get better with every call. Plus any bet commits, and the jam *still* isn't enough to deny comb-draws, though it at least makes those thinnner and is enough to deny any 8-9 out draws.

I agree with the way you played it but I don't think that was your question. You questioned whether or not pot odds were correct.
You may of had enough behind to discourage the standard 9 out draw but not the multidraw hand.
if you use the 2x and 4x rule (multiply outs by 2 for one card and 4 for two cards to come for % for draw to hit)
He has a pair, an over and a FD - ~14 outs on the flop (14x4 is 56%)
he is a favorite to your holdings and will never fold here. You problem is you do not know his holdiongs so you have to assume 9 outs or 36% and bet accordingly.
hope this helps a bit

you made a good shove, he made a good call. not much else you can do here.

the only thing id do a bit different is raise a bit more preflop. you are setting the price kinda cheap. if everyone else folds the initial raiser is getting ~3:1 on a call which he hardly making much of an error with almost any hand.

id make it 80 to go here as its already a multiway raised pot, and i want to discourage other people coming along knowing that the people already in for 20 will come along