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Maximizing Value FH vs. flush draw Maximizing Value FH vs. flush draw

05-07-2014 , 01:22 PM
1/2 NL: Hero ($300) covers both Vs by about $100-$150. Mid 40's friendly TAG white guy.

V1/V2: Typical 1/2 fish. Both too loose, too passive. Not a lot of history due to late night table combining.

Crazy LAG Asian straddles UTG+1, both V's call, total donk calls, I call w/ 55 from BB. Crazy LAG Asian checks (which despite his LAG tendencies rarely raised w/o premiums while straddling).

Everybody's range here at this time (3am) is ATC.

Flop $20: 954ccc. Total donk checks, I bet $15, V1's both install call. Sadly LAG Asian and donkey lady fold. I range Vs with high clubs, possible made flushes. I discount 9x or two pair due to the speed of the calls.

Turn: $65ish. 4s. Bingo. Here is the crux of the hand. How much do you bet to try to maximize value here without risking huge potential value on the river?
Maximizing Value FH vs. flush draw Quote
05-07-2014 , 02:14 PM
I wouldn't discount 9x bc of timing, but that's irrelevant. I'd make it 30 here, and jam the river most likely
Maximizing Value FH vs. flush draw Quote
05-07-2014 , 02:32 PM
Bet 35-40
Maximizing Value FH vs. flush draw Quote
05-07-2014 , 02:52 PM
Does anybody think of jamming turn? My only reason for considering it is the time of day. If you play in the wee hours like 3am, you know what I mean when people get more gambooly.
Maximizing Value FH vs. flush draw Quote
05-07-2014 , 03:38 PM
Against players who are more likely to bet when checked to, the stack sizes set you up nicely for a CRAI. Against these guys, just bet the biggest amount you think they'd call with 9x or the naked Ac. Maybe $30-$40? It's hard for us to really hone in on the ideal sizing without knowing more about the villains, and the dynamics at your table that night.

I think it's a mistake to discount 9x and 2 pair based on the speed of their calls. On a monotone flop, their immediate reaction with those hands might be to just get to showdown. They probably don't really realize how hard/unlikely it is to flop for someone else to have flopped a flush, and are giving your $15 bet way too much credit here.
Maximizing Value FH vs. flush draw Quote
05-07-2014 , 04:44 PM
I would just lead $40 in this spot.
Maximizing Value FH vs. flush draw Quote
05-07-2014 , 06:36 PM
Result:

I did pretty much what everybody says and lead $45 on the turn. Both insta-called. River was a Kd. I aggressively tossed out $65 and got no takers.
Maximizing Value FH vs. flush draw Quote
05-07-2014 , 07:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by donkatruck
Does anybody think of jamming turn? ....
Jamming the turn on drawy boards when I have the nuts is one of my favorite things to do against drawy stationy fish.

Too often on 2+2 we make the mistake of letting our own biases prevent us from realizing extra money.

We can jam turn and get called by:
--9x and overpairs (TT) that thinks we are making a move (i.e. "why so much..."
--A or K that is drawing
--Made flushes

Remember, for a lot of fish, drawing and getting lucky is just part of the game. They will often draw if the pot is at all "Worth it".

If they have around $100 behind and pot is $65 we can easily just jam it here for $100-ish putting them all in. Especially if its late at night. A lot of the fish will just say, "Well, send me home..." or "Time to go home..." and they will call with one of the hands I listed above...

I encourage blasting pots and shoving when we are monster. Speficically, we are looking for instances where villains have called big bets, pot is getting big relative to stack sizes, and the board is wet, and/or we read villain for having a big hand. When those factors are present, we can bet pot or even double pot or even just monkey shove for stacks.

You will be amazed at what type of hands will call.

My favorite type of calls are from so-called thinking players that muse aloud "Why so much...." and then they do the chip shuffle and give you the poker stare for 4 minutes then call...

edit: to be clear, leading turn for $40-ish isn't terrible by any stretch. However, this is one of those spots were we can overbet the pot and get called by a wide range of lessor hands. I like to overbet spots like this around 25% of the time (depending on my image and villain type)
Maximizing Value FH vs. flush draw Quote

      
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