Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyfreakingchan
Great analysis. thanks for that. Just wondering if I wasn't bluffing, and really had a set or two pairs, should I be stacking off at this spot with over 350 bb?
The bigger the SPR, the better the hand we need to stack off. This deep, we should be heavily weighted towards flopped straights, preferably with 75s of one of the three suits on board, or top set at the very least, before we look to get stacks in.
Against the UTG+2 raiser, stacking off with top 2 or a set might make sense on the flop, unless we know he's a wild player who will open UTG+2 with 75s and 66 or 44, in which case, we need top set or the straight, and preferably a backdoor flush draw to go with it, so that we're free-rolling against a chopped pot.
Even then - how often is UTG+2 going to stack off with an over-pair on this fairly dry low-middling board? Probably not too often. If he wants to get stacks in, it could be with the straight or top set. So stacking off vs UTG+2 with 88 is best. Stacking off with 66 or 44 is okay, but not great. Stacking off with 86, 84 or 64 are all kind of meh, because we can still get counterfeited, if we're not already losing to V's sets.
Stacking off with 2P or a set against the BTN is even more dicey. He can have all the straights, sets, and 2P here. If he's the type to slow-play his PP's in position pre flop, and then go broke on this flop, okay, but those guys are rare.
Stacking off on the 3c turn would be even more dicey. He shouldn't have much 52 there, but if he's calling with 52 pre, he's double-gutted on the flop, so he could stab and call your x-raise.
Your line is weird/fishy. When the UTG+2 PFR checks, we'd want to bet for value and protection if we have top pair or better. When we check-raise, we're repping 2P or better, but those are hands that would just bet out. The only bluff we have that is substantially improved by the 3 is 52. Are we really calling the UTG+2 raise pre, and check-raising this flop, with 52?
If V really did just have a pair + a draw, he actually made a good play.
Folding pre would be fine. Stabbing for a small size on the flop and folding to a raise would be fine. Check-raising 4x over the BTN's stab, and barreling for 3/4 pot on turn is just torching money.