Hi all,

So after getting stacked for about 4 buyins getting overset 3x in about 20 hours of play this weekend, it got me thinking if I should even be playing small pps in multiway pots at live 1/3. Are we always stacking off for 100bb even when some loose passive suddenly comes alive on a dry flop?

I also feel like the deeper we get the less we should be willing to see flops with small pairs due to RIO? Thoughts on this anyone?

Yes. Because too many of them will stack off with top pair, or two pair.

Just variance.

Generally set mining is super profitable at these games. Occasionally you will run into a higher set when doing it a lot but you will run into a lot more villains willing to lose a lot of money with one pair/two pair/draws.

Knowing when you should slow down and not play for stacks with your sets is important. But really this is mostly just running bad. If you get it in with AA vs KK preflop you are going to lose 3 times in row about 1% of the time.

I've come to the exact same conclusion as OP. In fact, I actually think small pairs play better with smaller stacks (not larger ones, although obviously we still have to be getting good IO in the pot odds sense) due to smaller stacks can go in more easily postflop with weaker holdings, whereas bigger stacks will only go in with stronger holdings. So there becomes a tipping point where even though the amount we can "win" obviously goes up as stacks get bigger, it is just that far less likely we're actually winning when we get the chips in with a small set (unless playing some really poor players). In other words, I would much rather play 22 with small $150 stacks (50bb in my 1/3 NL game) in a 5way limped pot than I would with $750 stacks going 5way to a $15 raise (even though the IO with regards to what we can win and the SPR are exactly the same in both cases). It's a very weird paradox.

So that combined with the fact that the overwhelming majority of pots are raised at my table (i.e. being able to see a cheap flop to setmine is unlikely unless it has been limped to us in LP), has moved me towards folding small pairs (66-) until mostly LP, and also being very wary of playing them in small juiced pots unless stacks are non-deep.

Obviously the worse your opponents are / the better you are the more you can do whatever you want, but even then their overall profitability (if any) is likely much less than you think (especially OOP) even in the better games.

ETA: If you're getting in 100bb stacks in a limped pot with a set against TP, you're not playing in 2019. Obviously don't waste your time on poker and instead just put huge money on all the upcoming sporting events you know the outcome of.

GbutMikeStarwilldisagreewiththisG

Every day there is a new thread where someone lost their stack with a crappy two pair in a limped pot.

Isn’t the theory that unless you can mine for 20x it’s not as profitable?

This is far too simplistic. While stack size will obviously rule out setmining due to being too small (ex. we can't setmine only getting IO of 4:1), just because we're getting 20:1 doesn't make it a snap setmining case either. There are other factors to consider, such as position, number of players, number of morons in the hand versus capable players, etc.

For example, if told you stacks were such that facing a raise you'd be getting 1000:1 IO to make the call, do you have an easy setmining call here closing the action? Now what if I told you the raiser was [insert best player in the world here] and he has the Button?

GcluelesssetminingnoobG

Despite all the potential for chop-busting, it's not a bad idea to ask Mike about the profitability of his sets in EP vs. LP/BTN. I realize mileage will vary, but I've certainly noticed in my limited experience that position matters a lot in these situations.

100% agree. It's one of the reasons I now don't play 66- in EP and yet mostly still do in LP.

Gifthere'snotmuchdifferenceinyourEPversusLPrange,y ou'redoingsomethingwrongG

Don't fold pp in soft games. You're rarely seeing the flop for more than 5bb, pots go 4+ ways, and stacks are not too deep. Goldilocks zone for flopping (and turning) small sets.

The deeper you get and the tougher the games get the more you will want to play fewer small pairs from certain spots. It doesn't mean you should never have 22 from a spot (although that's probably ok too), but you must cut down frequencies of them or you're just playing too many hands in pots that more often are 3-4bet and less often go multiway.

Just don't fold sets unless it's clear you have 0% and don't worry about losing with them.

Jesus, I already knew this place was full of nits but now we are going to start folding pocket pairs to raises also? SMH

You get set over setted about once every 275-300 hours or so. Worrying about that is ridiculous. Most of the big pots I lose are to someone with a set. I could only pray that every starts folding pps to my raises.

Pockets pairs are the most profitable hands in poker. The big ones and the small ones. Folding any pp to a normal raise multiway or in a spot where you expect it to go multiway is really bad.

This is really spot on; baffled by some of the responses

That is a bit too general. There are a lot of situations where folding low and medium pocket pairs is right. And situations where folding even KK preflop to come up. AK beats most pairs in profitability because of their reliable winning lots of small pots.

I'm not folding pocket pairs as much as some people here but I'm not blindly playing every one either.

Pretty sure I didnt say anything about "blindly playing every one". I said call when its a normal raise and its multiway or you can expect it to go multiway.

Highly doubt anyone's database will show small pocket pairs at the head of the profitability list.

And since every losing player is seeing a flop with small pocket pairs in any position, I guess they're making a killing with them but just losing overall because they suck at every other hand they're playing? Otherwise where's the reciprocality (or do we somehow feel we're playing them *so* much better than our opponents)?

If you're an expert compared to your opponents (or sitting at a lol table) then obviously do whatever you want.

GcluelesssetminingnoobG

They could be dead last on such a list and still be profitable, so no idea what this means.

There is just too much money to be made from sets in soft games to where folding (under most circumstances) is actually a leak. Soft games don't have to be relative to your skill level either. You just need the right dynamics that allow you to often stack a player(s) with sets while also being able to see flops and turns at a low cost. Standard stuff considering the passive nature of most 1/2-1/3 games where even the winning players have limping ranges.

It was a response to Mike's contention that "pocket pairs are the most profitable hands in poker". While obviously that applies to the big pocket pairs, applying that to small pocket pairs is pretty unrealistic.

GimoG

Poker--Small and Medium Pairs

I have always thought that a skill that differentiates an excellent player from a professional is the ability to play 66 and 77 out of position. The hero has to be alert to effective stack sizes. He has to have instinct for implied odds and good reads on all the players. The value of medium and small pairs out of position is small compared to premium hands. In 1-2 games where most people are buying in for 100 bb, the bad players, from whom we win most of our money, are bleeding their stacks, and the implied odds mostly just aren’t there. The profit from 66 comes from superior post-flop play in which the hero wins through successful bluffs and showdowns. The pro has to be able to win with successful semi-bluffs on flops like 457r. He has to make successful bluffs when everyone checks the flop and an A shows up on the turn. Five-way against random hands, a 66 has 24.5 percent equity against four players, each of whom have 19 percent. The pro has to have a tolerance for high variance. He has to have good enough reads to win at showdown with a small pair. And he has to know when to fold in all these situations.

I would call with 66 against a limper in front of me, but when I’m in early position, and there are checks to me, I say to myself, don’t be stupid, follow Ed Miller’s advice: one should never open-limp, just don’t do it. Much of the time, I open-limp anyway. Perhaps that is why I do not play at the professional level.

In position, hands like 66 and 77 in position are more playable. Still, one needs all the above skills to make a profit.

My rule of thumb with small pairs and even 77 and 88: 1) Call if the pot is multiway or a bad player opens in front of you, and his stack size is 25 times the opening bet, giving you the correct stack size. Otherwise, just toss them, and admire the pros who win with these hands. Or 2) play these hands and have fun. Remember that for 90 percent of us on this forum, poker is not about making money. We make much, much more from our day jobs, and anyone who can play good poker is intelligent enough to get a high paying job. Have fun with these hands: there is nothing like hitting a set on a dry board against a bad player who throws money into the pot!