Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
[Low] Hand Analysis [Low] Hand Analysis

10-15-2021 , 10:15 AM
1/3 game at the Bellagio
Hero ($1000) SB - Running good, image a bit TAG but spashing around a bit, Most of my stack is from V3, who I took most of my stack from flopping a set against two pair
V1 ($300) BB - Old and Tight player who hasn't really gone out of line
V2 ($300) UTG - Tight player who mixes up his play a bit. I played with him on a previous day and showed a big fold with AK against his Kings preflop
V3 ($1000) Button - Splashy and closer to LAG, Very annoyed at me from double up and a prior hand where we both had flush draws (him with the nut draw, but i paired on the river and won the $400 pot)

V1 limps, V3 raises to $20, I call with 55, V2 and V1 call.

Pot - ~$80

Flop - A53 rainbow

Flop checks around

Turn - 6

Hero leads $40, V1 Raises to $100, V2 Jams for $280, V3 folds

What range do we put the villians on?
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-15-2021 , 10:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by davepoker

What range do we put the villians on?
an ace, maybe two pair but you're obviously not going anywhere, hopefully you jammed. I'm not worried about straights for that depth.
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-15-2021 , 11:50 AM
3bet pre, as played easy call
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-15-2021 , 12:34 PM
fold pre, bet the flop. as played hero fold.
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-15-2021 , 12:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
fold pre, bet the flop. as played hero fold.
How about: fold pre, bet flop, Hero call down the likely range of Aces up, 33 and 65s. I can't find a fold here AP.
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-15-2021 , 01:06 PM
Call pre is OK to set mine vs. this guy. It's a big raise, though.

Easy call on turn. If V2 shows up w/ a straight, he is not tight at all -- ditto V1. Set over set is a cooler.

Edit: I probably bet flop unless I expect a c-bet.
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-15-2021 , 03:52 PM
I would just fold pre flop. You're facing almost a 7x raise oop and you aren't even closing the action. I highly doubt calling here is profitable.

Villains could have two pair, any set besides AA, strong Ax, etc. Obviously we have to effectively go all in.
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-15-2021 , 04:29 PM
I think I need to mention that the standard raise at the table was $15-20.

In addition, the UTG and BB didn't 3! at the start of the session especially V2

Does this make any difference?
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-15-2021 , 04:52 PM
You should go all-in and feel happy about it.
V1 is an OMC — he can have AK or A6s/A3s or 33/66.
V2 is tight and limp-called UTG, and 3bet turn all-in — he can have A6s/A3s or 33/66.
A5s is unlikely if not impossible because you hold 2 5s in hand, but either player could have up to 1 combo of that as well.
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-15-2021 , 06:47 PM
why does the action start pre with the BB limping?
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-16-2021 , 08:49 AM
Lol, I tend to be in the 3b or fold camp from SB but I’m okay with the call pre. Not folding 55 here and don’t expect BB to squeeze here ever.

As played, snap call. We shouldn’t be folding a set here ever: the 6 changes nothing and even if someone flopped a straight (4 combos of 2/4s are highly unlikely) there’s just way too many combos we’re miles ahead of that would play this way and weekend have decent equity against a straight.
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-16-2021 , 09:28 AM
As played I think you probably call the jam. Hard to get away from a set based on action as described. Even if some one made their straight ( I doubt anyone has one ) you still have outs to the full house.
Villian having AA doesnt look likely as played I think the only thing you are really affraid of here is maybe some one holding 66 ? I can't see folding this spot.
So what did happen ?
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-16-2021 , 09:43 AM
You are ahead of AK AQ AJ 33 Behind 66 24 and 47
I have No Idea why you would want to check your made set on the flop vs 2 guys ???
Anyone holding Ax is likely calling your flop bet.
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-16-2021 , 10:11 AM
Fold pre. We don’t make money in these games by making dubious set mine cold calls against large raise sizes. If he’s ultra splashy, we can 3 bet.

Not finding a fold AP. V1 and V2 shouldn’t have straight combos given the board. We’re really this afraid of 66?

Last edited by jdr0317; 10-16-2021 at 10:21 AM. Reason: Poorly worded sentence
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-16-2021 , 10:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317
Fold pre. We don’t make money in these games to make dubious set mine cold calls against large raise sizes. If he’s ultra splashy, we can 3 bet.

Not finding a fold AP. V1 and V2 shouldn’t have straight combos given the board. We’re really this afraid of 66?
Agreed. I dont see the pre flop call ESPECIALLY when you are not closing the action.
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-16-2021 , 10:54 AM
So, if the "normal" raise at the table was $12, would you guys call? If you are playing at a table w/ $15 - $20 opens always, are you just folding all small/mid pairs?

I mean, we are $1,000 deep w/ the pre-flop raiser who is a splashy lag on the button. I'm almost always calling pre w/ 55 if I basically never expect a 3bet.
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-16-2021 , 03:35 PM
Quote:
So, if the "normal" raise at the table was $12, would you guys call?
It doesn't matter to me what is "normal". What matters to me are the pot odds I'm getting, how many players are still to act, how deep we are, and how my opponents play.
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-16-2021 , 03:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
It doesn't matter to me what is "normal". What matters to me are the pot odds I'm getting, how many players are still to act, how deep we are, and how my opponents play.
Your decision to call with a small pair should be based more on implied odds rather than pot odds. Even on 2 of the 4 reasons you listed, "how deep we are" and "how my opponents play," it's still a call since we're 300BB deep with a tilting, splashy semi-lag and an OMC in the BB and a limper closing the action.

I'm honestly shocked that you're advocating to hero fold the turn. That's some MUBS-y thinking if I've ever heard it.
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-16-2021 , 04:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
It doesn't matter to me what is "normal". What matters to me are the pot odds I'm getting, how many players are still to act, how deep we are, and how my opponents play.
Even more reason to call here -- we are deep vs. a splashy lag and others who are almost never 3betting and are tight.

Are you seriously "hero" folding? In that case, you should fold pre regardless of raise size, players, stack size, everything.
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-16-2021 , 04:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
Are you seriously "hero" folding? In that case, you should get up and do something else
FYP

Somebody might have 66 but 33 is equally possible. Straights are obviously possible but way less likely than various two pairs.
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-16-2021 , 04:36 PM
If V3 was still in the hand this would be a sick spot but 100bb deep I'm just rolling with it. There's a set of 3s in OMCs range and maybe some Axs for two pairs as well.

EDIT

Read the rest of the thread now. I do think that small pockets are overrated when we're deep because there's a danger in just getting 300bb+ in and then labelling any oversets a "cooler". But given our rival deepstack is tilted and splashy I'm calling the SB with baby pockets.

Last edited by WereBeer; 10-16-2021 at 04:42 PM.
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-16-2021 , 07:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
why does the action start pre with the BB limping?
That was a mistake when I entered the information
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-18-2021 , 12:13 PM
Results:
I ended up folding on the river. The other hands were 66 and 33.

I entered the ranges post turn actions based on the ranges.
AA, 66, 33, A5 and 6s, A3s, 74s, 65s and 42s.

My decision was based on a few things.
1) I had been reading the players all week very well and was correct about 95% of the time
2) The BB had only showed down one hand in several hours which was a set or straight
3) The BB had a big tell (happy feet), which indicated a strong hand
4) No matter how likely it was for him to have a 2 pair combination, I didn't feel that he would have raised the turn with 2 pair
5) As tight as the BB was, I just couldn't see him calling the $20 preflop with the 42 or 47
6) The limper almost definitely had a set, just wasn't sure which one.

Additionally,
The tilting button and I played a pot where I 3! on the button with J9os and he called my flop c-bet with 96os on a 234 -9-K board with a gutshot which ended up checked down on the river after i made a flush.
He claimed he had Kings on the hand up top.

Last edited by davepoker; 10-18-2021 at 12:14 PM. Reason: more info
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-18-2021 , 12:40 PM
Given that you posted this hand, it is certainty that you were beat. I mean, if you had called and been shown A6/33 or A6/A3, you would never have posted the hand. I am just pointing out the results oriented nature of your post/thought process.

Your ranges are slightly off IMO. Tight player UTG never has A5o, 42s,74s. BB never has 74s/42s if he’s tight — if he’s not tight he can also have A3o/A6o. Neither player has AA.

I get that you are trying to rationalize your play now after the fact, but it was the wrong play.

1. Sample size bias. I don’t believe that you’re reading hands with 95% accuracy over a significant time span. I mean, reading in the sense of literally pinning down the exact category of hand strength. If so, you’d be the best LLSNL player of all time, or you’re playing in an unusually soft pool.
2. Sample size bias, again. A couple hours. Really?
3. Happy feet? Very specific tell, lol. I’m reminded of the recent post that included that Villain had a dog in their lap. Funny.
4. More sample size bias. If you have a couple hours with the BB you don’t know what he thinks a big hand is.
5. Reasonable.
6. Reasonable but I wouldn’t discount A6s (a couple extra combos you beat).

When you factor in the price you’re getting it’s a trivial call. Don’t try to rationalize a mistake because it worked out for you one time.

Last edited by ChaosInEquilibrium; 10-18-2021 at 12:54 PM.
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote
10-18-2021 , 12:43 PM
Although we're deep with the Button raiser, being the first to call a preflop raise OOP and not knowing if this will end up multiway is pretty meh, imo. I fold preflop.

I just donk out on the flop. We basically have to hope someone has an Ace if we're going to get any money in, so let's start building that pot ASAP for that case and not risk the flop checking thru (which would be a disaster). The SPR is 3.5 against the smaller stacks, so we can get in stacks with 3 ~1/2 PSBs, so I do that.

As played, I also donk the turn. I actually think it is a super gross spot facing the cold reraise. Tight old guy really should haven't too many two pear due to preflop and tight old guys don't raise turns with one pear to play for stacks. And then on top of that you have the other guy reraising the tight old guy who has clearly committed and can easily have a monster; this is *super* scary and super nuttish from all but the most clueless (even two pear at this point have to take pause as to whether they even want to continue to this guy, let alone be happy with getting it in). I'd have zero issue considering a hero fold here.

GcluelessNLnoobG
[Low] Hand Analysis Quote

      
m