[LOW] [LOW] 1/2 QQ in the big blind - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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[LOW] [LOW] 1/2 QQ in the big blind

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10-14-2023 , 04:25 PM

benjijojima

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2022 Posts: 14

This is the main vil’s first hand of the night

Hero has 310 behind - effective stack

3 limpers
Vil (SB) raises to 15
Hero raise 50
Vil call 50
Pot 107
Flop K96 rainbow
Vil donk lead 75
Hero?

Without a read should I just exploitively over fold? If I call i have 175 behind in a pot of 260 so is this just a jam? Jam doesn’t make sense because I want to keep draws in the hand.

I don’t have a lot of experience in 3bet flops post and even less against donk leads.

Last edited by benjijojima; 10-14-2023 at 04:28 PM. Reason: Tags wrong

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10-14-2023 , 05:17 PM

djoyce003

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 6,747

I fold here without a read that says call.

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10-15-2023 , 12:55 PM

benjijojima

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2022 Posts: 14

Spoiler:
Hero fold
Vil shows QTo for a gut shot bluff

Turns out player was a bad LAG sadly didn’t get tied up with him with a value hand before he busted and left

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10-15-2023 , 03:24 PM

hitchens97

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,515

Quote:

Originally Posted by benjijojima

Spoiler:
Hero fold
Vil shows QTo for a gut shot bluff

Turns out player was a bad LAG sadly didn’t get tied up with him with a value hand before he busted and left

Irrelevant.

Your Bayesian Priors are that 1/2 and 1/3 players are loose passive. Donks are usually a weak made hand, and often top pair weak kicker.

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10-15-2023 , 05:32 PM

Mlark

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2022 Posts: 1,689

Quote:

Originally Posted by hitchens97

Irrelevant.

Your Bayesian Priors are that 1/2 and 1/3 players are loose passive. Donks are usually a weak made hand, and often top pair weak kicker.

It's still pretty close. Donks aren't necessarily so weighted towards top pair hands. Most players aren't leading any king on the flop. We do block KQ. I don't hate peeling flop with QQ, JJ and possibly folding to a turn jam. This is one of the worst hands we could peel flop with, so I don't think we are being exploitable if we call flop and fold on turn. If are good on the flop 3/10 times and villain is going to give up with gutters the vast majority of the time, then calling flop and folding turn jam seems like a winning play.

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