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[LOW] 1/2 88 overpair gutshot raised all in 1.5xpot [LOW] 1/2 88 overpair gutshot raised all in 1.5xpot

11-29-2021 , 02:37 AM
Hero: 27yo white male TAG on the tighter and less aggressive side of things. Been at the table for maybe an hour or two. Covers villain

Villain: 50’s Indian man making pre flop raises to 10-15 with consistency and calling similar raises liberally. Has been straddling and providing action. 265$ stack

6 or 7 handed

There is a straddle and it folds to us in middle position we have 8s8h. I raise to 25$
Villain calls on the button
Rest fold

Flop: 7d5d4c

I C-bet on a great board for 40$ or 45$ I forget.

Villain shoves for 240$

I have not seen villain raise all in like this yet. He has seemed content to call flops and turns liberally or put in smaller raises like 2-3x.

As soon as he does this I go “wow that is tempting” smiling. He seems calm asks “that’s what?” I repeat myself and he says “I saw what he did to me on the last hand and now I’m doing it” last hand someone raised villain all in on the flop and he folded.

Another hand history with villain: we raised in late position with K8 suited villain called on button with a couple other callers.

Flop was an 8 high board not very coordinated, has a 4 in it. I C-bet close to pot, he calls, rest fold, he says “that does not match your story, it matches my story” as the turn comes an over card I check to him, he says “see there you go” and bets 1/3 pot, I call and river goes check check . He shows a pair of 4’s.

It seems like I have to call the shove with the 88’s on a board this good, he could easily have diamonds or a naked 6 and we are holding 2 of his outs? I didn’t know what to do, I felt like I was probably around 40% against his range and folded, preferring to play some lower variance hands against this player although feeling like I left some edge on the table.
[LOW] 1/2 88 overpair gutshot raised all in 1.5xpot Quote
11-29-2021 , 08:00 AM
I think it’s a good fold but also definitely a marginal situation. You indicate he has a wide range preflop, but don’t tell us much about how he’s played post flop, so it’s hard to figure out what’s optimal. With the info given, I lean fold and agree there are better spots.
[LOW] 1/2 88 overpair gutshot raised all in 1.5xpot Quote
11-29-2021 , 10:23 AM
You kind of answered your own question. You need ~38% equity to call. You estimated you had 40% and folded because you wanted to find lower variance spots.

FWIW if you give villain TT 99 77 55 44 54s 86s 75s that's ahead of us, and then all the pair with OESD combos we have ~40% equity. As you said he can also have diamonds, probably A6s....I doubt I'm folding here.
[LOW] 1/2 88 overpair gutshot raised all in 1.5xpot Quote
11-29-2021 , 05:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dilly_
You kind of answered your own question. You need ~38% equity to call. You estimated you had 40% and folded because you wanted to find lower variance spots.

FWIW if you give villain TT 99 77 55 44 54s 86s 75s that's ahead of us, and then all the pair with OESD combos we have ~40% equity. As you said he can also have diamonds, probably A6s....I doubt I'm folding here.

This +1


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[LOW] 1/2 88 overpair gutshot raised all in 1.5xpot Quote
11-29-2021 , 06:01 PM
Vs population When villains go all in here they usually have it. His speech is a bit sus. But the fact he is talking to u is a sign of strength. Think it’s mainly fold but occasionally I would look him up here. If I had like jacks I would look him up for sure
[LOW] 1/2 88 overpair gutshot raised all in 1.5xpot Quote
11-30-2021 , 02:09 PM
Fun hand, but so close I don't think it matters too much.

I call if I think he'll rebuy, I want more money on the table, and/or I want to nudge my tightish image back to more action-y.

I fold (quickly! - don't want to encourage the idea that I ever hero fold) if I'm not feeling excited about dusting off more bills, or want to nudge image back to nitty.
[LOW] 1/2 88 overpair gutshot raised all in 1.5xpot Quote
11-30-2021 , 09:54 PM
Noob perspective:

Raise/shoving $200 into a $100 pot (or so) smells an awful like like an overpair or a set trying to deny equity from flush or straight draws.

He could also have pair/draw combinations or a monster combo draw (Ad6d).

I would probably let them have it here and pick a better spot.
[LOW] 1/2 88 overpair gutshot raised all in 1.5xpot Quote

      
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