Longest Card Dead Stretch & Running Bad
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 26
What’s your longest stretch of being card dead in Live No Limit?
The first week I played this game I was flopping sets and getting pocket pairs. Flushes, straights, and full houses. And for the last 200 hours + it seems like I’ve been mostly running bad with 1-2 sessions here and there with some run good and huge wins.
What is to be expected of luck and card distribution in this game? It seems that everyone I talk to has a different idea of what is lucky and how long they should be getting good cards for. Generally speaking, I’ve noticed that the fishier the player, the more lucky more often they believe they should be. I’m okay with running bad, it allows me to examine my game closer, but I’m curious what other live low stakes winning players or pros think about how long it’s expected for one to be “unlucky” for?
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 3,579
Most math magicians point to the answer usually converging around tree-fiddy.
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 5,678
You can be unlucky for your entire life. The problem is that you haven’t really defined card dead or run bad.
About half of players should have below average luck. How long downswings last will depend on your skill and the games you play. Skill can’t change how good our bad you run but it can make it so that you still win in the long run even if you end up being unluckier than others.
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 26,555
Locking this up, as this is a strategy forum, and there's no strategy involved in this and the question "What is to be expected of luck and card distribution in this game?" is unanswerable on many levels. browni nailed it: "it depends" On average, players will run average. Some will run very well and some very poorly, though fewer of each the farther you get away from the average. That is how a statistical distribution works.
If you're more interested in "how do you deal with a long stretch of run-bad," please do a search, as that is a strategy question and we have several threads on it.
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 25,867
I'll point out that Bobby Baldwin explained why weak players appear more lucky. They get their money in bad much more often, which means they will suck out more times numerically than a good player that would have folded. The % isn't different.
