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When the over pair does hold up or you spike tptk, the pay off is larger, but it comes with the trade off introducing at lot of variance to your game. Other than AA, the other top 3 hands (KK, QQ, AK) typically have a win rate lower than 50% against 3 random hands. JJ and AQ are even worse multi-way. So my basic premise is bet large enough preflop to ensure everyone folds preflop or that you have 1 caller, at which point you can often take the pot away with a large C-bet on the flop when you miss and do not hold an over pair. For the most part you make a small consistent profit, until someone makes a mistake and stacks off with the worst hand.
There is way too much of an emphasis here on avoiding variance and winning a high percentage of hands when you play. Cbetting a pot sized bet is too much. I find betting around half the pot to be effective, especially when my pf raise sizes are already bigger than the raises from anyone else at the table.
What do you do when you have pocket pairs and suited connectors? Do you try to win as close to 100% of pots as you can every time you have those hands? I know I don't. I don't even think that way at the table. So I wouldn't think the same way when I have JJ which is even better in multiway pots than lower pairs when I flop a set. And I disagree with your suggestion that JJ is bad in multiway pots. Even AQ is a great hand to have in multiway pots when it's suited.
It seems like you want to play the way you do because of fear. I don't think the style you describe I'd nearly as bad as the reasoning you're giving for playing that style.
If you really want to win every time you have AA, just shove with it every time you get it pf and you'll get fewer bad beats and win almost every time with it. But then you will be forcing your opponents to play correct more often and they will make fewer mistakes.
Last edited by Steve00007; 02-11-2015 at 07:10 PM.