Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator
Wow... This is going to take some time working through to fully understand all of it. Thanks!
It depends. If you are what I call a Level 1 user, it will take NO TIME. You simply plug and chug.
But if you are what I call a Level 2 user, then yes, it will take you a little bit of time to understand the calculator.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator
...One quick question:
You mentioned before that you had some algorithm that would take your (i presume live) cash game winrate and compare it to a given tourney prize pool and buyin and assess if the tourney is worth your while.
Is that in here? After a quick look, I'm not sure I see it.
(Ignore this post if it is. I'll eventually find it.)
Yeah,
THE WINRATE CALCULATOR IS THE ALGORITHM and pretty damn comprehensive if I do say so myself. Basically, my first approximation was to use an algorithm. Unfortunately, algorithms only provide very "narrow" regions that are accurate.
However, if I compile various algorithms and formulas and then mix and match them with various data in spreadsheet form and put them altogether then I get algorithm/database kinda hybrid that is very accurate against a wide region of tournaments from smaller $100 tourneys to $10k tourneys.
So I put all my logic, assumptions, formulas, etc in the calculator. Basically, the calculator works on two levels.
Level 1) Users who just want to plug and chug and get an output: For these users (which should be 95% of users) they only need to use the main calculator page/worksheet titled Winrate or click on any of the hyper links that say "calculator" Then they just plug in all their inputs in the gray cells that aren't write protected and the calculator will spit out a theoretical winrate.
Also, for Level 1) users there is a worksheet/Tab titled "How to Use" on the bottom left corner of the worksheet which provides instructions if the front face isn't intuitive enough...
Level 2) For more advanced users who want to understand the logic, assumptions, formula, etc... These users can look at all the red comments on each input and category in each tab/worksheet and then finally look at the tab/worksheet titled "Assumptions and Formulas" and that should pretty much provide a comprehensive in depth treatment of how the calculator works.
I tried to make the calculator as user friendly as possible. Simply plug in your best guess for all your stats, enter tournament details like # of players, entry fees, round duration, etc and in some categories I provide recommended entries and drop down menus you select from when you click on the cell... and the calculator will spit out the winrate on the bottom.
On the right of the calculator is a bunch of stats that may interest the user such as payouts and tournament duration which will be within 10% of actual.
Lastly, I designed this to work for pretty much all tourneys from your local B&M fast structure 20 minute tourneys to the WSOP $1.5k to the WPT $4k to the WSOP $10k...
Go nuts, have fun, and you will see that for most of us, the smaller B&M tourneys for $100 - $200 is not worth our time UNLESS we are just a beast in these tourneys with an ITM% of 20% and we make Top 3 final table like 25% of the time. Then for those monsters, sure, play the smaller tourneys. But for the rest of us mere mortals who are winning tourney players, you see that your normal cash game winrate will be double to triple to quadruple what it would be vs the smaller tourneys.
Also, the model shows you just how "sensitive" tournament winrates are. Its amazing how the difference in a couple of percentage points here are there can seriously impact your longterm tournament profitability. Which basically means you really have to be "good" to be a longterm tourney winner because that game is definitely one in which every small edge makes a dramatic difference...
Last edited by dgiharris; 07-14-2013 at 07:49 PM.