$2300 eff. My image TAG (nittyish), young grinder. V young grinder, most competent LAG I've seen - spews too much for my liking but I guess that goes along with LAG style. Played multiple times before, know each other's game pretty well. He sees me as tight.

I open button to $40 with AsTd, only V calls in BB.

Flop: JhTs2c Pot ~ $90 Check-check
Turn: 2d Pot ~ $90 V bets $60, I call having a solid read that he'd do this given his aggressiveness even with total air often.
River: 2s Pot ~ $210 He checks.

Bet for value? If so, how much? Feedback on all streets much appreciated.

Grunch

Yes bet.

We like always have the best hand/are chopping here right? You know how he will interpret your sizing better than we do. I would be whatever you think Villain will interpret as a bluff. It's going to look pretty funky from Villains stand point if you bet $180 or something. If he's going to tend to believe you if you bet big, then bet something smaller like $90-$110.

Grunch

Everyone on latb sucks, leave game, drive to la, sit in that game and print

$100. Bet flop imo.

Your line is very fine and you should bet thin for value OTR imo:

pre: good sizing
OTF: checking behind is very reasonnable with this middle strenght hand. Also given your V character, this should induce bluffs with his air OTT
OTT: V is betting. No reason to make anything else but call.
OTR: bet like $90 in order to get a call from all is weaker hands

He should certainly vbet the river with a jack or better, as your hand looks like a midpair or A hi, something with SD value that will probably check behind. So you can be fairly confident you have the best hand; might as well bet, unless you think his spew tends to the avoiding handreading and taking FPSy lines, in which case he might c/r the river with a jack.

Typically you want to check back flops with medium strength hands and cbet TP+/good draws and some % of air. When playing competent players who can handread, you should adjust that range to make it harder for them to exploit you. Against villains on the passive/stationy side you can start cbetting some medium strength hands; against villains on the aggro side you can start checking back some strong hands. So in this hand you might consider checking back some of the stronger hands in your range on the flop.

i like checking flop. need to bet river, V never has a J here.

My first thought is to make a thin value bet of $100 to get value from worse T's and worse PP's. However, I'm okay with checking it back here (as nitty as it sounds). We've got a tight image, so we never have a deuce here. Villain is LAG. So we should only bet if we are also going to call a potential c/r bluff.

Personally, I would bet with the intent of calling a c/r bluff but YMMV, Olaff.

I'd bet $60 and fully expect a snap call or a C/R and I snap that sh[*]t off too...

Flop is fine as a bet or check

Turn is perfect

Check river

No one in this thread is considering image at all...

What do you mean by that?

Why we checking river when we have the best hand?

From OP

Hero is Tight on the nitty side
Villain is LAG who "spews too much"

Villain is more likely to bet close to pot or more than pot with hands that are better and bluffs, not check call ace high.


There are a few schools of thought as to why one bets:

1. To get value from weaker holdings (ranges)
1a. Charging draws / giving incorrect odds

2. To make better equity holdings fold (better hands, proper equity, etc)

3. The specific reason why one might bet the river is to prevent giving information at showdown (in this case)


What worse hands do you expect a LAG to call with? What hands do you expect a TAG (nitty) to b/f the river with?


I assume you think he is check calling hands like 44-88? I would expect him to 3b those preflop quite often.

So you think we have the best hand, but we shouldn't bet?

I don't think you can bet for value.

You're pretty face up here. You rarely have a jack after checking the flop. You rarely have a draw like KQ. You most likely have a one-pair hand, like 77-99, or, indeed, the exact hand you have (AT, KT, QT). Obviously, you're pretty damn capped and don't really have sets or two pair.

After you call the turn, your range is now almost certainly the weak one-pair type hand that were so likely on the flop - 77-99, QT, KT, AT, etc.

The problem with betting the river is that I think villain is either going to check/fold (so you can't really get value from worse) or check/raise a ton. His check/raising range could certainly contain some air, but it can definitely contain Jx or a chop (and I guess like A2s).

I also think the river is a pretty good spot for villain to check top boat oop because your range suggests you almost always have some sort of boat, and if he checks to you, I think he can expect you to a) bet for value a ton and b) bet/call often.

So I think you have two options to choose from.

1. Check behind.
2. Bet/call.

I don't love bet/call because I think he has some Jx. However, if you think he's gonna try to bluff with a range that is denser with other hands than Jx such that it's +EV to call, then you could plan to bet/call the river to induce. Pretty high variance and read dependent, but either way, it's basically turning your boat into a bluff catcher.

So two options, imo. It really depends on your reads. Just don't plan to bet/fold imo.

That is correct

No worse hand is calling

As Willy pointed out, you have to bet / call or check behind.

I personally think his x/r range is going to have almost no air in it. Basically quads and the occasional J or T. I expect his air to bomb the river as well as some combos of Jx and 2x.

Also, Hero is a Taggy nit. LAG is unlikely to plan a X/R because he should always always expects Hero to check back river.

Check back and expect to a hand with zero pairs in it.

So, extrapolating from this we shouldn't bet this river because we will not get action from worse. And if we get x/r'ed we are 100% behind because we know villain knows we're nitty and would never x/r bluff a nit.

I retract my earlier statement.

It's not that V wont x/r the nit on rivers. He should do it quite often, but based on the prior actions and the board run-out, it makes little sense.

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