Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker
If river action goes check/bet/allin/call. The winning hand will be a full house more than 50% of the time. Where are you getting 1% at?
Of course if river goes x/bet/jam/call he is going to be extremely boat heavy. That's irrelevant to the point I was making.
The <1% is in regards to preflop/flop permutations - ie: of all the hands villain plays that take a flat pre/flat flop line, an inconsequentially small number of them are KK/QQ/44/33 that it has no bearing on how we play our hand.
I'm not going to MUBs a potential river bluff because there is a chance approximating the likelihood of two electrons colliding that villain is going to have KK here. A river x/jam only has to fold better hands 31% of the time to be profitable (415/1340 =31%). Villain is going to have a lot of weak flushes here that can't call off our jam.