Hey guys,

It's a loose, aggressive 10-handed 2/5 game. I've been running hot and hitting hands and getting paid. This hand the effective stacks are around 280BB, which is more than I usually play - I'm more comfortable with stacks in the 100-200BB range. In this hand, the relevant stack sizes are:

UTG+1 (me): 1,950
Button: 500
SB: 1,400

The small blind is a spewy person who has been frequently raising 15xBB preflop with ~50BB behind. After he got his big stack though, he has slowed down. He likes to pick off bluffs, and doesn't tend to fold. However, he prefers betting/raising to either of the above.

He is rarely 280 BB deep though, since he loses a lot, so I don't know how he plays this deep. I am aiming to play a lot of pots against this person.

Preflop 3-bets were very rare and they indicate a premium hand.

Preflop: A 4
UTG folds, I raise to 15, folds to button who calls 15, SB raises to 60. I call, button folds.

Flop: A K 5 (Pot: 135)
SB quickly checks. I check.

Turn: 7 (Pot: 135)
SB bets 90. I raise to 290. SB thinks for around 2-3 minutes, looks puzzled, says, "I have no idea what hand to put you on", then calls.

River: 3 (Pot: 715)
SB checks...

Remaining stacks: SB has around 1,050, I have around 1,600.

What hand range would you put SB on, and what bet size maximizes EV against that range?


Cliffs notes: wtf fold preflop first time around and definitely to the 3-bet, and bet the flop, stupid donkey

Given that 3bets usually mean premium hands in this game, I like the flop check very much. He very likely can have a set of KK/AA or AK and be looking to trap you. Taking the free card allows you to draw for free without losing the possibility of gaining tons of value on your hand if you hit because of the likelyhood of him holding a big hand. If he has JJ or QQ or something similar, this flop killed your action anyways so concentrate on how to extract the maximum from his monsters and don't worry about the hands that will not pay you off regardless (seems like a running theme I have for you in your posts...)

On the river, I would bet ~$500. Once you follow through with a river bet after your turn raise he will become very suspicious of a flush. Regardless, if he does have AK/AA/KK he will most likely have to make a crying call with them. The reason I wouldn't go full pot here is because when weak players are playing deep they often look at bet sizes in its absolute form, ie. "you bet $700, holy crap that's a lot of money", rather then realizing that your betsizing is a just a function of stack sizes and pot size. If the guy is truly a monkey though I would bet closer to pot since he will have a difficult time letting top two or a set go (and rightfully so if you are playing well).

edit to add- I don't have a problem with preflop at all. You are plenty deep. You have position. You have a draw to the nuts. He is a monkey.

he looks weak as hell, probably AQ/AJ...

Let's say his range is JJ+, AQ+
He may call 600 with KK, AA, 500 with AK, 300 with AQ and fold the rest
So 500 is ok, maybe make it look a bit less and bet 480.

Shove, then show him the Ace of spades.

even a complete donkey can get away from QQ and worse here after he misses his flush and you follow through again, so assume he has something better than that and bet as much as possible

just shove

There's too great a chance he's got AA or KK here. So, you've got to move in. I expect the player you described to call. He might call with AK too.

Also, your turn raise is to small. You made it $200 more in a $315 pot. With the chance of being up against AA or KK, you want to make the turn raise as big as you can so that the river push gets called more often.

Hey guys, thanks!

I agree that my turn raise is too small. I need to improve on my bet sizing skills.

I shoved the river and he folded AK face up. When do spewtards start folding top two on a relatively unscary board

Well there are 4 combos of KK/AA and 6 of AK and he is more likely to 3-bet KK/AA preflop so I think I didn't lose that much value. I think maybe a 500-600 bet would be better, though, so yeah.

If you were planning to set up a river shove I like making a bigger turn raise -- it makes the pot bigger which makes a river shove more natural and makes it harder for him to fold to a shove. $405 is a pot-sized raise, and sets up a pot-sized river shove.

If you don't think this Villain will call a shove without the flush here this deep, then I'd still opt for a larger turn raise ($325ish) and then value bet the river somewhere in the $400-$550 range.

When I read threads about live hands I often notice a gap between how large a bet that we, as posters here, think a villain should call and what he actually will call. Live players generally think about the absolute size of the bet as opposed to its size proportional to the pot. I agree with jloc here. 500 is good. 450 is good too.

similar hand happeneed to me... spew tard folded trips (long story short it was pretty obvious he had trips) and i had a fullhouse
i just overbet big time assuming he coudln't fold... folded face up missed atleast 1k by not making good bet sizes...

Let's not get too results-oriented. You may have made a bet-sizing mistake. But, you didn't make a mistake simply because your opponent folded.

he showed top two pair and is spewy.... missed value for sure

same as in my hand

Given the stack sizes here, you only need the spewy opponent to call a push less than half as often as a fairly normal sized bet of $400-500.

We've got a sample size of one with this hand. But, is the profile of this opponent going to call the push less than half as often as he calls the $400-500 bet?

The push looks good to me.

I thought the $290 was a fine bet on the turn. I'm betting $250-$350 on the river. Yes, I know that $250 in this pot is almost a donk bet, but I want to get p-p-p-p-p-aid.

He called $290 on the turn. He'll call $290 on the river.

just ship it in he likely calls with a set if he is a weak player, i mean who folds top set in a live game?? its like gold to some kids. i just move in i think he calls often enough putting u on a worse set or teo piar to make it worthwhile, and yeah when he mucks i show him the A of spades every time

I guess it is like

Shove = Bet 450-600 >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Bet 250-300 > Check > Fold

For my taste, I just don't see the pot being built big enough to warrant a shove with this stack depth. I like the 500-ish, not more than 600.

However, I do think it's a bit relative to your own game. For example, if you're willing to essentially bluff shove AsJd here, then you can value-shove this one.

I also don't care for the flop check. It seems very unlikely to me that he'll raise you off your hand here with this stack depth, and you build a nice pot. If he does raise, you can assume minimum of AK imo and take it from there.

400-500 was my initial thought. if he has a smaller flush, he'll probably crai anyways.

bet 300 here. he might shove if hes a donk. make u look weak. a pls raise me bet. bigger bets wont get paied off anyway.

I like 400. I dont think he is really gonna expect you to jam anything other then flushes so the only thing i think you get paid from are lower flushes. Just bet like half pot and id expect a ton of his range to call you.